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March 2019 Discussion

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Obviously tons of spread on that weekend system. 12z Euro ensemble leaned toward warmer OP a bit. FWIW Euro op did bring the Thursday night-Friday snows north vs previous few runs but still a miss locally. Also FWIW, GEFS mean for the first round in northern IL/northwest IN is about 2-4", a few members with decent hits locally or close by.

Best that can be said at this point is that there will probably be a decent system in the region (could be a miss locally) Thursday-Friday with a stronger system over the weekend a good bet to bring precip here but everything else TBD. Hope for the best so that this cold start to the month doesn't go to waste and then hopefully onto a more spring like pattern.



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With Superior iced over, what would normally be a snowy night is pretty much just clear and cold, with a temp of 3 and a wc around -8.  Snow depth varies anywhere from 55-60",  and areas where I've had to pile snow is reaching over 8' and nearing the gutters on the house.  There's not much more room for snow.  On average another 50" or so will fall before the season is done (even with Superior nearly frozen).  I only hope this is a gradual thaw, the snow water content is 14-16".

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The rule is... if the low is strong and wrapped up, it will cut right through Iowa.

What if it's cutting through northern Louisiana? 

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

With Superior iced over, what would normally be a snowy night is pretty much just clear and cold, with a temp of 3 and a wc around -8.  Snow depth varies anywhere from 55-60",  and areas where I've had to pile snow is reaching over 8' and nearing the gutters on the house.  There's not much more room for snow.  On average another 50" or so will fall before the season is done (even with Superior nearly frozen).  I only hope this is a gradual thaw, the snow water content is 14-16".

I am very concerned about flooding for the UP this spring. We have had several storms overperform on warm air advection this winter, if we got into a warm pattern it could get ugly fast.

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8 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said:

Don't get too hyped up. Models have been all over the place. One run will be south of St Louis and one will be as far north as the Twin Cities.

Yeah it'll likely be another rainer after this little cold/dry episode.  Bring on spring.  

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26 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

-12F for the morning low. Record cold high of 6F in serious jeopardy. Sun is out in force and I can hear birds chirping as we sit at -10. 

 

More snow on your way next weekend

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The German model (ICON) has a crippling ice storm for much of Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin on Saturday night/Sunday with strong winds during the event.  Possibly a repeat of 2/24/2007.  This is all due to the very strong high in eastern Canada.

The GFS does show some ice for Iowa but NOWHERE near as much as the ICON does.  CMC is way south and much weaker.

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Got down to -5 an hour or so ago, and we'll probably struggle to get above 0 today. A few more storm threats on the horizon here. That first wave Thursday looks like it'd be a good event somewhere, thought the weekend one has more potential to be big. 

Either way, I just hope it warms up a bit. The roads are finally clear in town after being almost completely ice packed for the week after the blizzard, but the sun can only do so much when it's this cold out. 

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Our snow season was pretty wild.  We basically had nothing until January 12th and it appears we may get little if anything after February 20th.  In between, we had 44".  I was hoping we could break the season record, but the snowstorm train has ended as abruptly as it began.  We haven't had any real snow since February 20th and, unless the GFS pulls a coup with the Thursday system, there's none in sight.  Models have been teasing more big snow several times since Feb 20th, but they've all gone north or south or fizzled.

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2 hours ago, Natester said:

The German model (ICON) has a crippling ice storm for much of Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin on Saturday night/Sunday with strong winds during the event.  Possibly a repeat of 2/24/2007.  This is all due to the very strong high in eastern Canada.

Fortunately the ICON doesn't perform nearly as well as the tiger tank did

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1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Model consensus for next week

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Nah. We got one more in us. After that I'm ready for warmth...blooming,baseball, grilling....and will check out until next winter. 

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Jesus it’s March and I’m still looking at below freezing temps until at least Friday.

On a side note what a tornado outbreak they got down south today. Holy cow everything was spinning violently this afternoon on the southern side of this system

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Wind chills down around -25 out there.  Pretty impressive for March.  At this time of the year at this point in the night we could easily still be in the 60s, with muggy dews near 60 as well.  We've had snow cover for almost 2 straight months, going back to Jan 12th.  Still 2-3" of crust covering the whole backyard.  

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Got 1.5" of snow yesterday. Was quite unexpected, a convergence band set up RIGHT along the water as we were fringed from the snow to the south. Just 5 miles west of me had barely a half inch. DTW only 0.3". Roads turned into ice rinks as temps plummeted.

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3 hours ago, mimillman said:

-2 at ORD, which is very impressive for March. Too bad this cold will have been completely useless

Agreed. But given the longer days and the warmth of the early March sun you can tell it's time to put hardcore winter to bed. Looks like will get split in the late week and weekend events so my hope we'd get one last hurrah seems to be fading. If so, let's get an early spring beginning the back half of March.

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17 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Only in the single digits today with wind chills below zero all day even with full sun.

Still clearing snow

 

 

 

 

On the plus side, if you slip and fall off the roof, you won't fall far and you have a nice cushion beneath you.

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The low of -3 this morning broke the old record of 1 set back in 2002. Windchill was -20 at one point. Brutal for March. 

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17 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Only in the single digits today with wind chills below zero all day even with full sun.

Still clearing snow

 

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Cool pics.  I would enjoy experiencing that kind of snow at a week's stay at a BNB or vacation home.  But quite honestly, to live in that kind of climate with that kind of consistent snow cover would drive me to the 'Here's Johnny' version of Jack Nicholson in The Shining.   Afterall, it's the hunger for snow, the tracking, and the heartbreak misses that ultimately makes me a weenie and feeds my love for snow.   

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down to -10 this morning in Madison, breaking the old record of -9.  Should be the only record we break during this cold snap.

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The low of -3 at ORD is technically the coldest March temperature to occur with 0 snowcover.  I say technically because March 1, 1962 got to -5 and March 3, 1943 got to -3 with a T of snowcover in both cases.  In any event, a very rare and impressive occurrence.

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We got to -8 briefly this morning. It was unpleasant. 

Not sure how to feel about the Thursday storm here. On one hand, the GFS/FV3 are both pretty good hits and the GEM isn't awful but the Euro/UKMET have basically no precip. 

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4 hours ago, Crispus said:

On the plus side, if you slip and fall off the roof, you won't fall far and you have a nice cushion beneath you.

Except it isn't cushiony at all, it's packed like rock.  I can walk on it.

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

I would enjoy experiencing that kind of snow at a week's stay at a BNB or vacation home.  But quite honestly, to live in that kind of climate with that kind of consistent snow cover would drive me to the 'Here's Johnny' version of Jack Nicholson in The Shining.   Afterall, it's the hunger for snow, the tracking, and the heartbreak misses that ultimately makes me a weenie and feeds my love for snow.   

I can't explain why I'm here.   An inner desire/call of the wild type thing, I guess.  It's more than just snow.

 

Low this morning was -22 here at the house.  Considering it's March, this has some grit.

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