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ORH_wxman

Feb 18 overrunning threat

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We're boned.

According to the Euro, just south of 84 will see a bit of a mix at some point, but had more moisture this run. Snowfall wise, there was a strip of 4-6 inches from Danbury up to Waterbury on eastward..looked much better than 6z...

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11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

According to the Euro, just south of 84 will see a bit of a mix at some point, but had more moisture this run. Snowfall wise, there was a strip of 4-6 inches from Danbury up to Waterbury on eastward..looked much better than 6z...

You're probably fine. Inland enough and with a bit of elevation. I was referring more to my area four miles off the water. Was just hoping to get one all-snow event this winter, but doesn't seem to be in the cards. 

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Tomorrow is one of those events where it snows all day long, yet when you shovel after work there's like 2" of fluff.  Except for SE MA where there might be 4" of fluff.

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z hrrr has accumulating snow over by 7am for wct. Just a general 1-3” across the state.

Sounds like what the HRRR did during the January 13-14th event in DC.   It showed the NORLUN as just a couple of flurries and was off by 4-6" Not saying it's that bad here, but I'd use other models for this event.

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z hrrr has accumulating snow over by 7am for wct. Just a general 1-3” across the state.

It has been showing that for a few runs now, hopefully just the hrrr being what it is outside of 6 hrs. That being said, this winter has found every way not to snow around here, so maybe it's right. At least we dont have to fight the mid-feb sun angle...lol

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2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

I don't have experience using HREFs.... do you have thoughts on their performance relative to other short-term guidance for winter weather, and what timeframe they become useful? TIA

All I could find online:

"HREF version 2.0 will be implemented in November 2017 and makes it more like the SSEO. It adds a new member from a second HiresW WRF-ARW run configured similarly to the National Severe Storms Laboratory ARW run. The 24-hour time lag used in HREF 1.0 is reduced to the two most recent runs for each system."

It really IS other short term guidance. It poor man's ensemble that includes the hi-res NAM, ARW, NMM, and NSSL WRF. So it gives a good idea of what the hi-res models are doing, but also comes with QPF caveats that hi-res models come with (e.g. too much terrain influence at times).

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19 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You're probably fine. Inland enough and with a bit of elevation. I was referring more to my area four miles off the water. Was just hoping to get one all-snow event this winter, but doesn't seem to be in the cards. 

Hopefully that bit of warm air aloft dissipates as we get closer and non of us have to worry about it. I'm a few miles south of 84, so it's kind of a toss up...

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is pretty juiced again. Better tomorrow aftn too.

It looked a hair colder too where it has been marginal...

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29 minutes ago, Amped said:

Sounds like what the HRRR did during the January 13-14th event in DC.   It showed the NORLUN as just a couple of flurries and was off by 4-6" Not saying it's that bad here, but I'd use other models for this event.

Yea, I’d favor everything else for now. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is pretty juiced again. Better tomorrow aftn too.

Surprising ...  I figured it was collapsing into the consensus ..right around .4 or so, off those .6ers it it was selling yesterday.

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The HRRR and NAM 3km simulated reflecitivity are both a good match for the current radar. But the HRRR has the best accumulation well to the north of the hi-res NAM. 

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The 3k NAM has been one of the more consistent pieces, less generous to near the pike and north.  It also continues the theme of this being a 3-5 inch deal in the goods, with the odd lolly.

The overall output of the NAM just looks odd though.  I can buy it flipping near the coast, unfortunately, but I don't buy such a nice even producer, off such an ugly, weak piece of energy.

It's just nice to have something to track.  It'd be nicer if there was a higher ceiling on this event, but beggars can't be choosers, and whether it's 2-3 inches with some slop down here, or 4 or 5 inches, I've finally got a realistic opportunity to show the kid what snow actually is, and watch him flip out.

 

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Blizz to Ginx to Bob to Diane could get warning snows on la NAM

Ryan doing naked snow angels outside the studio.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Blizz to Ginx to Bob to Diane could get warning snows on la NAM

I guess im at the point this winter where I'll believe it when i see it. Not a cloud in the sky.

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Just now, #NoPoles said:

I guess im at the point this winter where I'll believe it when i see it. Not a cloud in the sky.

Look south and west

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I have to say those Kuchera maps, or any snow maps for that matter, are just not great. Clear stripe of warning snowfall through SNE. 

Actually breaking down lift, RH, and temps in Bufkit and the same NAM would struggle to 4". There is good lift over BDL between 03-07z, but definite drying concerns after that. 

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