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ORH_wxman

Feb 18 overrunning threat

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From a synoptic standpoint, Monday has some pieces in place to produce pretty well actually...you have good confluence north to enhance any WAA fronto and the shortwave becoming stretched so you will get a deformation probably oriented E-W that drops some pretty good snows on someone.

The key is keeping the shortwave intact enough. Prior runs were just grinding the thing up, but it's trying to keep its integrity better now on some of these runs...even the 06z Euro trended that way.

 

Yeah, I know everyone is tired of hearing about how things could go right when they haven't this year, but putting aside the atmospheric voodoo that has been preformed on SNE weenies, keep on eye on how well the shortwave keeps intact as it heads east. What you want to look for is the "curve" in the shortwave base not becoming so squashed that it ends up almost a straight line...a little bit squashed is ok and actually could even help someone (via the stretched deformation band as mentioned above).

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I'm not as tuned in these days ... as my personal druthers are sort of moving on from winter... But, upon glancing over things I'm not altogether turned off by the notion of a light to moderate (minimal) impact snow event on Monday afternoon-ish..  

The overnight GEFs are in very coherent agreement with the operational run, and there is no reason (in my perception of matters) why that type of solution can't "fit" into a compressed higher velocity flow structure. We are after all not talking about anything very big or needing larger areal phenomenon to get accomplished with that.  The GGEM has a flat wave with light QPF ... and the EPS was more robust than the operational Euro.  I speculate that the Euro (that's speculate...not sure entirely) that the Euro has an oh-so subtle overly amplified western N/A solution with the trough, which concomitantly requires over production of the downstream SE ridge by some near equal proportion.  But that might feed-back negatively (if so..) toward damping out the eject S/W mechanics that much critically more and it ends up losing a pallid system altogether and/or too much in general.  It's also a correction that would "fit" inside this type of overall flow.  

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12z GFS looks pretty good too...06z may have been slightly better, but the idea is there that a nice little band of snow could drop advisory amounts.

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It's not a potent storm by any means.  Looksto be primarily a SNE storm.  CNE gets some.

Perhaps Jimmy can score a few inches too out of this.

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Cmc on board.  Let’s go for the 1/23/15 a of a sudden blizzard in tonight’s euro run.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Cmc on board.  Let’s go for the 1/23/15 a of a sudden blizzard in tonight’s euro run.

Lol ain't happening James but Thursday is looking much better 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol ain't happening James but Thursday is looking much better 

Snowy week cancel uncancel 

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Kevin's reverse psychology never seems to fail us.  Good job DIT!

yeah, that's what it is.. or maybe is luck..

I'll take 2-4" it seems.. add to the pack  lol

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Again, kind of like the NAM...it's clown range so buyer beware, but the rgem ramped it up quite a bit too from 06z run, So the trends have been pretty universal since 00z last night.

 

 

 

 

Feb15_RGEM12z.gif

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Fwiw - the GFS parallel run has had very good continuity spanning some 4 to 6 cycles ...depicting light to moderate snow events/mixers.   Monday...next Thurs...following Sun...etc

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12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's not a potent storm by any means.  Looksto be primarily a SNE storm.  CNE gets some.

Perhaps Jimmy can score a few inches too out of this.

NNE screwed again :(

(Ducks and runs out of the thread)

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13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Kevin's reverse psychology never seems to fail us.  Good job DIT!

I needed to do something. These are desperate times before the big Morch torch 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I needed to do something. These are desperate times before the big Morch torch 

Sacrifice a few TH's

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Ukie looks suppressed. Congrats PA/N NJ.

 

edit: I should at least add that it was a definite improvement over 00z.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie looks suppressed. Congrats PA/N NJ.

 

edit: I should at least add that it was a definite improvement over 00z.

It’s been bad all winter though it did nail this event tomorrow for VA being south when everything else other than the NAM was north.  I think 2-18 is mostly a southern New England event.  I expect we will be rain here.  Still think best snows will be south of the MA/CT/RI border, albeit not by much 

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