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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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For a fuller picture of snow/sleet...

CMC is all frozen from about New Brunswick to NYC through 7 pm Tuesday, when about 1" of LE has fallen (then another 0.7" of LE or so, mostly as rain, is my guess, as surface temps are in the upper 30s by 1 am Weds, the next timepoint and are just at or slightly above 32F at 7 pm, so the changeover appears imminent).  This is several inches of snow, as per the first map, then a couple of inches of sleet (~6" worth of snow at 10:1) for the precip through 7 pm.  

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

For the 12Z NAM, the Pivotal map shows the snow through Tuesday early morning (more to the S of 195/276 due to the Monday system) and then the snow changes to sleet for most of CNJ/NNJ until early afternoon (where soundings from Trenton to NYC looks like sleet, changing to rain somewhere around 1-2 pm Tues), where one can estimate the amount of sleet by subtracting the Pivotal snow from the Tidbits "snow" (which is snow + sleet, all at a 10:1 ratio).

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

Same for the GFS, which shows a few inches of snow on Pivotal, then an inch or so of sleet (subtracting the PW snow from the total snow/sleet on TT) for the 95 corridor/NYC Metro.  This is a decent increase from 0Z/6Z GFS.  

gfs_asnow_neus_19.png

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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37 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Sounds like a reduction from the 0Z run...

Pretty similiar to 0z

Euro is a tick colder. It's still below freezing for NYC at 4pm tuesday. A little snow then alot of sleet then rain with a few inches of frozen precip. 

This is going to turn to be either all snow or a rain event. I doubt we see several hours of sleet.

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19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Pretty similiar to 0z

Euro is a tick colder. It's still below freezing for NYC at 4pm tuesday. A little snow then alot of sleet then rain with a few inches of frozen precip. 

This is going to turn to be either all snow or a rain event. I doubt we see several hours of sleet.

Why? 850s are warm and if surface stays cold that's a recipe for sleet

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why? 850s are warm and if surface stays cold that's a recipe for sleet

Several hours of sleet? When was the last time that happened ?

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32 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

My snow forecast for Tuesday was just increased from 3-5 to 5-8. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so expecting a moderate front end thump before changeover to sleet and ZR. 

That sounds similar to the event a couple of weeks ago 

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FWIW I have been checking TWC forecast since yesterday for my area and it has been bouncing up and down with snow totals since yesterday A M----> It was 1-3 then by noon I went to 3 -5 then last night it was upped to 5 -8 and this morning it was down to 1 - 3 and now at 2 pm its back to 3 - 5 lol

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14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't even remember the last time I had several hours of snow

Nov 2018 here lol

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2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

FWIW I have been checking TWC forecast since yesterday for my area and it has been bouncing up and down with snow totals since yesterday A M----> It was 1-3 then by noon I went to 3 -5 then last night it was upped to 5 -8 and this morning it was down to 1 - 3 and now at 2 pm its back to 3 - 5 lol

TWC is a pure one model hugger. 

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10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EURO quite a bit colder than 0z. Snow is still about 4 hours worth but the ice is about 3 hours longer in duration.

Looks like 1-3 for Sunday night into Monday and  another 1-3 for Tuesday for the coast with more inland.

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What is the timeframe of this event? What time does it start and changeover to rain? I just want enough snow/sleet in the morning that my company will advise us to work from home....so I can't do a single thing.

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Although likely overdone EURO shows significant amount of freezing rain over NNJ, especially inland.  Did pretty well with ZR on last event, although a bit overdone.

Surface temps solidly below freezing for long duration so threat of significant icing, up to 1/2" is possibility.  Lets hope is more IP than ZR.  Half inch ice accretion is significant

and can bring down tree limbs and power lines.

Euro currently showing 1/4 - 1/2 amounts NNJ with some locally higher amounts Sussex County.  Thinking the 1"+ QPF is likely also overdone so would expect ZR totals to be near lower end

of EURO range.

 

This post in reference to Monday late afternoon into Tuesday event.  The Sunday night into early Monday event looks insignificant for metro NYC.

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40 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like 1-3 for Sunday night into Monday and  another 1-3 for Tuesday for the coast with more inland.

I think it’s 4-5 in NYC on the Euro.  I’m not buying into the sleet idea.  It’s just too uncommon of an occurrence in these events.   

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

March 2017, Feb and March 2007.

I know someone who took a look at events like this and said sleet duration over 1 hour generally only occurs in events where NYC never changes to rain.  In events where they go over it only happens around 10% of the time.  I believe the February 2014 storm where parts of Queens and WRN LI saw 4-5 inch per hour rates was the last case I remember of long duration sleet and I believe NYC never went over to rain in that storm  

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I know someone who took a look at events like this and said sleet duration over 1 hour generally only occurs in events where NYC never changes to rain.  In events where they go over it only happens around 10% of the time.  I believe the February 2014 storm where parts of Queens and WRN LI saw 4-5 inch per hour rates was the last case I remember of long duration sleet and I believe NYC never went over to rain in that storm  

I don't think the ones I mentioned changed over. With a changeover it usually only sleets briefly. Likewise in the Jan 2011 event that delivered 19 inches to CNJ it flipped to rain for a while then flipped briefly back to sleet before snowing heavily again.  Those 2007 storms were unique and part of a winter where it just couldn't snow. ( like this one ) Given this year, I expect some snow ( or not? ) then plain rain down here. Hope we can get a few inches first. 

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Does anyone here know if the TrueWeather UK snow maps or the various Euro snow maps we see (StormVista usually), which report "snow" are truly all snow, like the Pivotal maps, or if they're actually combined snow/sleet at a 10:1 ratio for everything frozen, like the Tidbits maps are?  Would be nice to know, since I've seen people debating it and I'm not sure they know for sure.  

@SnowGoose69 @purduewx80 @forkyfork or others who might know for sure?  Thanks, in advance...

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