MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The UKMET has consistently been too snowy and too cold this winter. It really botched the 1/20 event Yet this model is ranked up there with the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Good call What's your call at this point for NE Sussex County NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yet this model is ranked up there with the euro The UKMET tends to have trouble in winters where the pattern is progressive from what I’ve noticed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: What's your call at this point for NE Sussex County NJ? I like 2-5 then a change over to sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Weather underground currently has my area receiving 3-5 inches before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Time to put the salt down. I humbly request I.R.17 to publish the first forum salt accumulation maps for the coming events. As always ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I like 2-5 then a change over to sleet then rain. Thanks bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Agree . Couldn't help myself. Lol! Try harder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Currently 20° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Hadn't seen anyone post the GFS-FV3, which has been extraordinarily consistent on at 8" or more of snow/sleet (assuming the sleet is 10:1 snow) and it amped that up a little bit at 18Z. Most of the TT map is sleet, assuming the PW graphic is correct with there only being a few inches of pure snow to start off. That would then be about 2-3" of sleet (7-10" of snow at 10:1 vs. 3:1 for sleet) on top of 2-3" of snow (except for the odd strip of <1" on that map, which seems unrealistic) if the models are correct (for a total of about 0.9-1.3" of liquid equivalent as frozen mass). Not so pretty, but high impact, as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 53 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Weather underground currently has my area receiving 3-5 inches before the changeover. Currently forecasted for about the same amount in Long Island. County line Nassa/suffolk. Having a hard time that this will verify before the rains wash it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 33 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Hadn't seen anyone post the GFS-FV3, which has been extraordinarily consistent on at 8" or more of snow/sleet (assuming the sleet is 10:1 snow) and it amped that up a little bit at 18Z. Most of the TT map is sleet, assuming the PW graphic is correct with there only being a few inches of pure snow to start off. That would then be about 2-3" of sleet (7-10" of snow at 10:1 vs. 3:1 for sleet) on top of 2-3" of snow (except for the odd strip of <1" on that map, which seems unrealistic) if the models are correct (for a total of about 0.9-1.3" of liquid equivalent as frozen mass). Not so pretty, but high impact, as modeled. Why does the Tropicaltidbits keeps showing Northern New Jersey more accumulation while Pivotal weather shows Southern New Jersey more accumulation? Sorry if that's a stupid question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 38 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Hadn't seen anyone post the GFS-FV3, which has been extraordinarily consistent on at 8" or more of snow/sleet (assuming the sleet is 10:1 snow) and it amped that up a little bit at 18Z. Most of the TT map is sleet, assuming the PW graphic is correct with there only being a few inches of pure snow to start off. That would then be about 2-3" of sleet (7-10" of snow at 10:1 vs. 3:1 for sleet) on top of 2-3" of snow (except for the odd strip of <1" on that map, which seems unrealistic) if the models are correct (for a total of about 0.9-1.3" of liquid equivalent as frozen mass). Not so pretty, but high impact, as modeled. Yup its holding serve. If it was to verify, it would be a mess for some areas. It will be interesting to see the future runs indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 hours ago, White Gorilla said: TWC is a pure one model hugger. Animal just curios which model do they follow / swear by ? BTW they once again have my area at 5 - 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Throw a dart for your location ...at this moment https://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Doorman said: Throw a dart for your location ...at this moment https://digital.weather.gov/ Seems legit, slight uptick needed for NYC, north shore, S CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Doorman said: Throw a dart for your location ...at this moment https://digital.weather.gov/ You can see how Upton is not as enthusiastic as other offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Sanitation issues a snow alert for the city tomorrow night. Uh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Notice on the 0Z NAM so far hour 54 and 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 up to hour 60 after 60 less accurate - HP is strong and not moving much up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Standard NAM snowfall guidance thru 1am WEDS https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Majority of this is sleet for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Majority of this is sleet for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Majority of this is sleet for the coast this event is beginning to remind me of 12 years ago almost to the day http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/14-Feb-07.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this event is beginning to remind me of 12 years ago almost to the day http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/14-Feb-07.html Quite possible if the high stays put. The only thing is that the temps were in the teens while it was sleeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 CoastalWx just posted in the SNE forum about the bizarre snow gradient on the models not being latitude based. That has been glaring on just about all guidance and almost never happens. I’m not sure but I suspect it’s a product of models thinking the high will result in dry air or subsidence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 First storm is south, second is rain. It's this winter pattern in two storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GFS run isn't terrible Well it is on the backend because it absolutely soaks everyone but there is a decent amount of front end frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 54 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this event is beginning to remind me of 12 years ago almost to the day http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/14-Feb-07.html Not quite, surface temps are no where near as cold with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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