• Member Statistics

    15,529
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    davisinstruments
    Newest Member
    davisinstruments
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

First storm is south, second is rain.  It's this winter pattern in two storms

The 2nd one isn't all rain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro shows 4-6+ of frozen precip for the area. Euro kuchera has 1-3 inches of snow for the coast with more inland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we stop saying a model shows "X" number of inches of frozen precip when it clearly doesn't correlate. It shows "x" amount of inches of frozen precip at a 10-1 ratio. If its sleet or freezing rain that's included in the clown map, it's no where near the amount depicted.

 NYC will get 4" of measures frozen precip Tuesday. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Can we stop saying a model shows "X" number of inches of frozen precip when it clearly doesn't correlate. It shows "x" amount of inches of frozen precip at a 10-1 ratio. If its sleet or freezing rain that's included in the clown map, it's no where near the amount depicted.

 NYC will get 4" of measures frozen precip Tuesday. 

Euro doesn't get NYC above freezing in Tuesday until the evening hours.

 

Very icy mess

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eps has a few inches for NYC and surrounding areas based off the stormvista snowmaps.

Not sure if it's counting sleet 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Can we stop saying a model shows "X" number of inches of frozen precip when it clearly doesn't correlate. It shows "x" amount of inches of frozen precip at a 10-1 ratio. If its sleet or freezing rain that's included in the clown map, it's no where near the amount depicted.

 NYC will get 4" of measures frozen precip Tuesday. 

Agree, although, freezing rain is not counted towards "snow and sleet" and some maps are just snow without sleet.  They really need to label these better.  Many models are showing 0.5-0.9" of LE as frozen precip for NYC metro and of that probably half is snow and half is sleet; for example something like 3" of snow and 1" of sleet (at 3:1 ratio or 3.3" of snow equiv at 10:1) is 0.63" of LE as frozen precip, but is 4" on the ground if there is minimal compaction by the sleet.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM is another total non event for snow, again. Has an inch total for the entire area. It’s been very consistent https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021006&fh=78

Morning afd from my Holly nws is calling for several inches of snow I 78 north with possible warning snow totals over to a significant icing event.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We know, you don't like this storm.

Gfs has gotten colder

There's not much to like, my friend, but I am hoping we can pull something out of the hat despite the poor prognosis and the lousy pattern. My hunch is that we end up with another cold rainstorm after a short period of snow, but I am hoping we can get something more substantial, to at least break the snow drought we've been having. The NAM being that consistent really bothers me, even if some don't think much of it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

There's not much to like, my friend, but I am hoping we can pull something out of the hat despite the poor prognosis and the lousy pattern. My hunch is that we end up with another cold rainstorm after a short period of snow, but I am hoping we can get something more substantial, to at least break the snow drought we've been having. The NAM being that consistent really bothers me, even if some don't think much of it.

Though the NAM could be right, it is still not in its "wheelhouse" range. I would give it till tonight before weighing its runs higher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

There's not much to like, my friend, but I am hoping we can pull something out of the hat despite the poor prognosis and the lousy pattern. My hunch is that we end up with another cold rainstorm after a short period of snow, but I am hoping we can get something more substantial, to at least break the snow drought we've been having. The NAM being that consistent really bothers me, even if some don't think much of it.

A 992 low over Detroit (with no secondary development off the coast) usually does not deliver much here...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A 992 low over Detroit (with no secondary development off the coast) usually does not deliver much here...

There is some secondary development. It doesn't mature though until it hits New England.

Even though the main low goes into he lakes, the cad is impressive on the coast and inland for this storm to start off frozen. The question is how much before the changeover and we will not know that until we get closer.

Models are usually terrible with cad situations.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

There is some secondary development. It doesn't mature though until it hits New England.

Even though the main low goes into he lakes, the cad is impressive on the coast and inland for this storm to start off frozen. The question is how much before the changeover and we will not know that until we get closer.

Models are usually terrible with cad situations.

Euro is cold which is interesting....it usually picks up on any warm scenarios...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Albany...and they are taking about changeover and mixing up here.

 

Perspective.

 

Im sorry, I say this in the least offensive way...Too much wishcasting on this forum.

”Front end dump”

”Extended period of icing”

”Cold air is locked in at the beginning”

 

These things almost never happen in the New York City metro area. You can tell me when they have happened...it happens so rarely.

 

This is the second storm in a row that looks bad, plain and simple. 

we are talking ourselves into salvation with something that’s very rare in this region.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jfklganyc said:

In Albany...and they are taking about changeover and mixing up here.

 

Perspective.

 

Im sorry, I say this in the least offensive way...Too much wishcasting on this forum.

”Front end dump”

”Extended period of icing”

”Cold air is locked in at the beginning”

 

These things almost never happen in the New York City metro area. You can tell me when they have happened...it happens so rarely.

 

This is the second storm in a row that looks bad, plain and simple. 

we are talking ourselves into salvation with something that’s very rare in this region.

 

Front end dumps are not that uncommon, but they usually don't deliver beyond 3 inches and the rain almost always washes it all away in a few hours. I've seen more than a few like that; I usually break out the snowblower before it changes to rain mainly to keep the thing in running order; no one else on the block even bothers to clean in these setups. But even those are in good winters; in ones like this, and I've seen plenty, we may get a few flakes for an hour or two and then it's all rain. Not saying that will happen with this one, but I don't see the pros worrying too much about snow right now.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

A 992 low over Detroit (with no secondary development off the coast) usually does not deliver much here...

There is secondary development but it's hugging the coast instead of offshore. The way this is turning out  I'd almost rather this have been a pure GLC with a weak secondary because now we will all get soaked after it goes above freezing 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

There is secondary development but it's hugging the coast instead of offshore. The way this is turning out  I'd almost rather this have been a pure GLC with a weak secondary because now we will all get soaked after it goes above freezing 

Nam is alot colder this past run. Alot of frozen precip to start.

The high is anchored better in canada.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Looking at the surface plots Nam shows a more robust front end dump. Need to see clown maps to confirm.

Some snow then sleet then some rain for the coast with more frozen precip inland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

In Albany...and they are taking about changeover and mixing up here.

 

Perspective.

 

Im sorry, I say this in the least offensive way...Too much wishcasting on this forum.

”Front end dump”

”Extended period of icing”

”Cold air is locked in at the beginning”

 

These things almost never happen in the New York City metro area. You can tell me when they have happened...it happens so rarely.

 

This is the second storm in a row that looks bad, plain and simple. 

we are talking ourselves into salvation with something that’s very rare in this region.

 

Agree it is very rare for the immediate Metro area to hold onto a long period of frozen precip in these scenartos. It does happen though look at November but history says usually it's snow to brief Sleet/ZR and then rain. This storm looks a lot better for at least some accumulating front end snow than the last one did though because the surface temps are colder and the timing is much better with precip arriving in the morning rather than arriving late afternoon. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is cold which is interesting....it usually picks up on any warm scenarios...

And Nam now is also cold

The lakes cutter is too far west to cause a big warm-up here like we usually see with lakes cutters.

The high up north is causing CAD in our area which all the models are seeing now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam is alot colder this past run. Alot of frozen precip to start.

The high is anchored better in canada.

The latest runs of the gfs, nam, and euro all look a bit better so we'll see. I wouldn't expect positive trends but I am just hoping it stays the way it is now and doesn't end up with a last minute disaster trend like the last storm.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.