Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat


NEG NAO
 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

And Nam now is also cold

The lakes cutter is too far west to cause a big warm-up here like we usually see with lakes cutters.

The high up north is causing CAD in our area which all the models are seeing now.

You know it's a strong high when the primary goes to the lakes but our surface temps stay in the low to mid 30s.

That's gonna be an icy mess for a lot of places. Snow wise, 2-4" is most probable before an icy changeover. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You know it's a strong high when the primary goes to the lakes but our surface temps stay in the low to mid 30s.

That's gonna be an icy mess for a lot of places. Snow wise, 2-4" is most probable before an icy changeover. 

12Z NAM has the HP strengthening and holding in place once the precip arrives in the Metro keeping the precip frozen through much of Tuesday

namconus_ref_frzn_us_34.pngnamconus_ref_frzn_us_38.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Seems like its mostly rain for Newark NJ, which usually indicates rain for LI--Having a difficult time believing even 2 inches of snow before changeover.   Seems like a CYA situation

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

GFS is colder again.

NYC will receive 4" that high means business.

44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You know it's a strong high when the primary goes to the lakes but our surface temps stay in the low to mid 30s.

That's gonna be an icy mess for a lot of places. Snow wise, 2-4" is most probable before an icy changeover. 

31 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Seems like its mostly rain for Newark NJ, which usually indicates rain for LI--Having a difficult time believing even 2 inches of snow before changeover.   Seems like a CYA situation

Think as always this will be very location dependent,

 

My early call right now would be 2-4 for the city/North Shore of LI followed by a little sleet and then a lot of rain

South Shore of LI would get less

NW of the city will see more front end snow and longer duration of sleet/ZR. 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Think as always this will be very location dependent,

 

My early call right now would be 2-4 for the city/North Shore of LI followed by a little sleet and then a lot of rain

South Shore of LI would get less

NW of the city will see more front end snow and longer duration of sleet/ZR. 

 

 

I agree with this assessment, I’m just skeptical of the call for 2-4 inches before the changeover occurs.  I’ve seen this movie many times

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I agree with this assessment, I’m just skeptical of the call for 2-4 inches before the changeover occurs.  I’ve seen this movie many times

Yea and the movie is always a bit unpredictable, sometimes these overperform aka November and sometimes they underperform and the changeover is faster than expected. This doesn';t look like the best setup i've seen for a front end dump but it's far from the worst either, it's actually a far better setup than the recent January storm was 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

GFS is colder again.

NYC will receive 4" that high means business.

Putting my cold/snow bias aside, these CAD setups are a pain in the *ss  to forecast. They are often full of surprises. Looking at the colder trends in the past 24 hours  has my attention, especially the EURO who usually has a warm thermal bias. That's a big red flag. I believe chances have increased for a mid November winter storm redux with mostly a snow to sleet scenario. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Seems like its mostly rain for Newark NJ, which usually indicates rain for LI--Having a difficult time believing even 2 inches of snow before changeover.   Seems like a CYA situation

Thats the model output, there is no cya situation in computer models. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Putting my cold/snow bias aside, these CAD setups are a pain in the *ss  to forecast. They are often full of surprises. Looking at the colder trends in the past 24 hours  has my attention, especially the EURO who usually has a warm thermal bias. That's a big red flag. I believe chances have increased for a mid November winter storm redux with mostly a snow to sleet scenario. 

Again depends where, I agree NW of the city. The climo even in Northern NJ is totally different than NYC/LI in these setups

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

CMC flips everyone to sleet very fast, little snow, lots of sleet for the metro before the rain 

That's possible, the only thing preventing a rainy cutter is that high to our N/NE. 

My worry is surface temps, models almost always go warmer than what actually occurs. Nam does well here.

Also if we get some snow from the first wave tomorrow then it'll lead to a colder surface, that may be why the Nam is so much colder. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Ant... two clusters for a secondary at 72hrs  :rolleyes:

and the north + west cluster pack on the great lakes low

get your umbrella handy!!!!!

StormTotalQPF_SFC.thumb.png.a1f6bd86a197e8e9fb060499414a3170.png

Gotcha

The whole storm isn't going to be rain.

Ukie got colder again at 12z. Tuesday is cold and doesn't rain until at night now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps.  Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain.  It's a nothing burger

You should let upton know, they are forecasting numbers similar to what’s being discussed here.    A couple of inches in the metro actually would be notable given what’s transpired this year.  

 

30BB0DDE-54FA-4021-AF9C-96C6C253EC25.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps.  Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain.  It's a nothing burger

There are many posters who don't live in the city and Long Island and will have a significant snow/sleet/ZR event, especially us north of 84, so continue with those snow maps guys. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay pinned this topic
  • BxEngine unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...