CAPE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Mount Holly's discussion for the initial wave tonight. Good stuff. Love the part where the GFS gets dragged lol. A one-two wintry punch is expected for our area through the period. The first will begin tonight, as a weak perturbation moves through the northern Mid-Atlantic. The system will be weak and fairly moisture-starved, but the antecedent cold air in the low levels and quite decent lift will be sufficient for a period of light snow overnight into Monday morning. Models are, unfortunately, still all over the place regarding magnitude/placement of QPF/snow amounts and low-level thermal profiles. The GFS continues to look the weakest, with mostly rain central/southern Delmarva and meager-looking snow to the north. It is beginning to look more like an outlier now (with only modest support from the ICON, though the 06z HRRR certainly gives me some pause), and its warm bias looks to be in full force. The 00z NAM, meanwhile, provides a veritable winter storm along/south of the I-76 corridor, which is rather unlikely given the overall character/speed of the associated perturbation and attendant lift. (Notably, the 06z NAM is a little tamer.) The NAM Nest, RGEM, FV3, CMC, and ECMWF provide a reasonable consensus cluster, with a fairly broad region of 1-2 inch snows expected from (roughly) the I-78 corridor southward to central Delmarva, tapering off to the south as low- level temperatures approach/exceed freezing for much or most of the event. Locally higher snow totals are possible in nearly-impossible-to- forecast steadier/narrow bands within the main precipitation shield. eta- Surprised the extended HRRR would be given even a glance, much less a mention lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Low of 16 this morning just south of Baltimore. I’m actually really looking forward to this nowcast. I’m not in the best location but it will be fun seeing people to the north put up some decent snowfall amounts. An inch is my bar for this event. Anything more would be nice. Hopefully the northern crew can hit warning level snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 26/15 in SE DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: eta- Surprised the extended HRRR would be given even a glance, much less a mention lol Yeah, it's already started to fill in the precip shield for MD over it's last couple of runs after having nothing at 6z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18 here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 14 here. Refrsshingly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I think the HRRR gets a lot of undeserved bad publicity, it isn't always great, but as an extended radar, it is certainly useable. There is far more fail coming from the main models which are honestly, abysmal. Looks like Baltimore north might be able to eek something decent out of this event. Hopeful but cautions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 was the low here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The Euro and Ukie actually look fairly similar at this point in terms of gradient. If you just ignore the ridiculous Ukie totals, it actually looks like there is pretty good agreement there. And the NAM is also actually pretty similar. Where that gradient sets up will be interesting, but I think the Euro, shocker, probably has the best handle on things. More realistic totals with a sharp cutoff right around Baltimore. I know in these setups, I typically end up with less snow than forecasted as the flip to sleet and freezing rain is always faster than anticipated, but then I tend to hold onto frozen longer, as most of us do with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The models may be under playing the potential during the afternoon tomorrow. Precip amounts through the region are generally light on the models at this time but I would not be surprised and actually somewhat expect that they will become more robust on future runs. Will try to explain as best I can here as to my reasoning. Have mentioned a second impulse that is running somewhat in front of the WAA. Hard to separate between these two features when just looking at precip maps. But what we are seeing is lift at 700 mbs with this second impulse in the afternoon and though the moisture is somewhat limited we do see light precip through the region. This then transitions over to heavier WAA aloft induced precip in the evening into the night as the winds at mid levels shift to a SW direction. Now the models often underplay the timing (by several hours) and the intensity of the moisture we actually see with the the WAA. This is evidenced by how often we all have seen an earlier arrival (2-3 hours) and a heavier thump then projected on the models. Now if this is the case here (Quicker and better moisture with the WAA) we would then be looking at possibly some good moisture being injected into a time period, though somewhat moisture starved ,has some good lift running through the region. Now if you still have no idea what I am talking about I will put it into simpler terms. The models are showing a period of light snow/frozen/rain tomorrow afternoon through the general region. If my thoughts are correct what might actually verify is we see much heavier precip through this time period. With the heavier rates we will get a better cooling of the column. So in the simplest terms possible, do not be surprised if we actually see a good thump of snow tomorrow afternoon that would extend fairly far south possibly close to or into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Sun is shining and birds are chirping...if it wasn't 16 degrees I'd think it was spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Has Fairfax closed yet? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I wonder how many schools cancel tomorrow with there being both morning and afternoon threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The Euro and Ukie actually look fairly similar at this point in terms of gradient. If you just ignore the ridiculous Ukie totals, it actually looks like there is pretty good agreement there. And the NAM is also actually pretty similar. Where that gradient sets up will be interesting, but I think the Euro, shocker, probably has the best handle on things. More realistic totals with a sharp cutoff right around Baltimore. I know in these setups, I typically end up with less snow than forecasted as the flip to sleet and freezing rain is always faster than anticipated, but then I tend to hold onto frozen longer, as most of us do with CAD. I of course like all of us want more snow, less ice. I’m betting on 1-2” before the flip. Anymore is icing on the cake for me. Maybe the meso’s will tighten up a bit more today and show the CAD hanging even tougher then anticipated? Should be a fun day tracking to see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: I of course like all of us want more snow, less ice. I’m betting on 1-2” before the flip. Anymore is icing on the cake for me. Maybe the meso’s will tighten up a bit more today and show the CAD hanging even tougher then anticipated? Should be a fun day tracking to see where this goes. You might get your wish of icing on top of your caked snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Has Fairfax closed yet? Nah. Some local dude holding a craft brew is outside picketing and yelling at all the administrators as they walk by. Might just be a delay 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Even a little snow for those that are latitude challenged might help shave a degree or 2. Weenie handbook page 16. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Temps in the teens this morning won’t hurt us going into this event. If temps can cooperate, we shouldn’t have sticking issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6z euro took a slight step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Low of 13. The barometer crested at 30.73" overnight but is ticking down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z euro took a slight step back. So did 18z and 0z...getting close to nowcast time anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I think it's likely Baltimore and south gets very little out of this. Maybe a little snow and ice. This is going to be a far Northern MD into Southern PA deal. They will probably get several inches or more and decent ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 34 minutes ago, Scraff said: I of course like all of us want more snow, less ice. I’m betting on 1-2” before the flip. Anymore is icing on the cake for me. Maybe the meso’s will tighten up a bit more today and show the CAD hanging even tougher then anticipated? Should be a fun day tracking to see where this goes. This is where I’m at. Think we get 1-2” of snow/sleet all total. Some ice. Lots of cold rain. note this is for MBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 NAM has frozen down into NC which is better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 By hour 20 we are seeing a better CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Need to keep my high 35 or below if we hit forecasted 39 I'm not sure round 1 will be much. I do think round 2 is the big wildcard with the most surprise potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Probably overdone but if not FRZA alone will catch people off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Wet bulbs pretty uniform across the region....upper teens/lower 20's. Column should cool pretty quick if we can get some decent rates....Right now I would say the radar looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Probably overdone but if not FRZA alone will catch people off guard. 3k much more realistic for DC IMO. 0.05” of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3k much more realistic for DC IMO. 0.05” of ice. 3k definitely does a better job showing UHI hell. Has a fair amount of ice as you jump 30 miles east and west though. And I’m also still mostly looking for MBY. It’s less extreme then the 12k but the 3k gets 0.22” inches of FRZA down here. Local news just calling for plain rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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