Fozz Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Too close to the coast. Probably just rain. Nope. A wound up coastal doesn't need to be that far from the coast. The problem on that run is that it redevelops a bit too late for our area and buries 40N. Get an earlier transfer and it's a MECS for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 So much for having nothing to track after tomorrow. I'm almost ready to just toss tomorrow and start focusing on the end of February and early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just for fun... but until guidance gets a better handle on this I wouldn't trust any op run. The idea of a storm there (where CAPE targeted) is just coming into focus now. Long range suddenly looks really interesting again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like a hybrid...interesting CAPE alluded that some EPS members had Miller B s, however, not sure if he meant this time frame or early March. For MBY that track needs to be a bit more East a bit. Favor a further South track too and then a turn up. Looks like late Feb and early March will be interesting. Boston back in the game soon. This is at the beginning of the better window, cough cough. I think it is too early yet to be confident about this period, late Feb. But, nice seeing the Euro support the GFS, GEFS and the MJO progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just for fun... but until guidance gets a better handle on this I wouldn't trust any op run. The idea of a storm there (where CAPE targeted) is just coming into focus now. Long range suddenly looks really interesting again. i was wondering what we were going to do after this storm lol...but hopefully with SOI,MJO going nuts...we can get our february back that we dreamed about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i was wondering what we were going to do after this storm lol...but hopefully with SOI,MJO going nuts...we can get our february back that we dreamed about lol As soon as the operationals pick up on the mjo and soi they respond almost immediately just like did for the January storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ji said: this looks interesting...miller b though? Mentioned it this morning after the 0z run. Looked Miller B-ish to me on the mean and glancing through the members. Its a ways off, so this may evolve, but this period looks kind of interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i was wondering what we were going to do after this storm lol...but hopefully with SOI,MJO going nuts...we can get our february back that we dreamed about lol You're going to do nothing because in 12 hours that storm won't be there. Haven't you learned by now with this winter? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You're going to do nothing because in 12 hours that storm won't be there. Haven't you learned by now with this winter? i havent seen many storms dissappear this winter within 7-8 days. Our problem is we have been seeing the D11-15 pattern never make it out of D11-15 but we have done alot of long range storm tracking this year. Now if it was a midwest cutter, you wouldnt be saying this LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It CAN happen...just very rare but March 1960 Winchester recorded 11", 5", and 7.5" of snow in March and had 9 straight days with a high below freezing AND didn't reach 40 degrees for the first time in the month until March 17th! There was snowcover until March 22nd. That is the most extreme stretch of snow/cold we have ever seen in March but history says it is possible. Whoa. Now that would satisfy me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Whoa. Now that would satisfy me. Just add those 3 totals and divide by 10 and that gives you a general idea of what fell in your yard back then. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn't get going until its north of most of us but it would be a widespread 2-4" with 6"+ at the PA/MD border. Dude you may have well as just copy and pasted this from the current storm thread...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Eps has some hits around day 8-9 then hits another period day 12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps has some hits around day 8-9 then hits another period day 12-15 Nice trough swinging through the mis valley in the same timeframe the gfs op has been signaling a storm. Maybe JB will finally get his grand planetary wave! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps has some hits around day 8-9 then hits another period day 12-15 eps look pretty good till winter dosent matter any more. 50 50 low and east based EPO seem real 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: eps look pretty good till winter dosent matter any more. 50 50 low and east based EPO seem real It looks good for a threat day 8 and 13 ish. It even develops a decent ridge bridge then breaks it down but why trust was it dies day 15 anyways. I love that significant improvement are happening inside day 10 all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Mentioned it this morning after the 0z run. Looked Miller B-ish to me on the mean and glancing through the members. Its a ways off, so this may evolve, but this period looks kind of interesting to me. It's a got an April 82 and March 60 look. Strong -EPO and a fairly zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, Amped said: It's a got an April 82 and March 60 look. Strong -EPO and a fairly zonal flow. Careful you might get NPZ excited bringing up March 1960 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 We get snow in March every now and then, but how often do we get a legit stretch of deep winter in that month? With the sun angle and average high in the 50s, it's not easy... but somehow March 1960 was able to pull it off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 We cant get a 9 day stretch of sub-freezing temps in mid January anymore, much less March. Not to mention back-to-back-to-back snows. That's just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Was a great event looking at the records. Huge expanse of snow cover, very cold and bombing out off the coast. March 2 - 4 1960 Snowfall amounts with this late season nor'easter ranged from six inches along the Ohio River to a foot in the mountains. Higher elevation in the central West Virginia Mountains topped 20 inches. This was the third highest average snow producing Nor'easter. It was precluded by surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic on the 2nd, while a second high pressure built into the northern plains. The high pressure over the mid-Atlantic was stubborn and was not initially displaced by a developing low pressure across Mississippi and Alabama area. The high was shoved aside by 00Z on the 3rd when the surface cyclone in the Gulf Coast states headed northeast. With the close proximity between the high and low pressure, a strong pressure gradient developed bringing windy conditions to West Virginia. Coastal cyclogenesis commenced off the Carolina coastline between 00Z and 12Z on the 3rd. The coastal low raced up the eastern seaboard reaching the Jersey shoreline by the evening of the 3rd. The coastal low deepened 45mb in 30hrs from 6Z on the 3rd to 12Z on the 4th. The minimum central pressure fell to 960mb off New England. As the surface low hugged the eastern seaboard, the occluded low traversed up the windward side of the Appalachians. As the surface low passed east of the southern Appalachians, an inverted trough of low pressure developed that focused moderate to heavier snow in the mountains. The 850mb analysis was most interesting. A low initiated in the southern high plains then intensified rapidly across Texas due to a low level jet. By 00Z on the 3rd, the low became cut off in the vicinity of Memphis, TN. Height falls upstream of the low allowed a continued northeast propagation through March 3rd into the 4th. The 850mb moved from southwestern Tennessee to Roanoke, VAin a span of 12 hours, which correlated well with the swift movement of the surface cyclone. Strong cyclonic flow on the backside of the system kept snow going in the West Virginia Mountains. As the 850mb low passed south and east of the West Virginia, 850mb temperatures remained between 0C to -5C, which kept the thermal profile conducive for snow. A negatively tilted 500mb trough strengthened as it ejected out of the Rockies. Meanwhile an upper level jet deepened as the trough propagated eastward across the Gulf Coast states on the 2nd and 3rd. A cut off low developed on the evening of the third over the eastern Great Lakes. The upper low then moved into the Atlantic and intensified further, while yet another low dove into the elongated trough axis that extended from the western Great Lakes to the New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 The Euro storm looks good. No KU's this year though. It's kind of disappointing because the pattern in October-November was so favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Ji said: i havent seen many storms dissappear this winter within 7-8 days. Our problem is we have been seeing the D11-15 pattern never make it out of D11-15 but we have done alot of long range storm tracking this year. Now if it was a midwest cutter, you wouldnt be saying this LOL Our storm tomorrow was there for at least a week or more. And there was something popping up around Feb 26-28th last week if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 The best storm of the winter will probably come around 10th to 15th of March. Just a hunch based on the pattern we have now translating into a deeper mid-continent trough once it finally shifts away from the west coast. Although there's currently lots of cold air in good places to your north, that other feature of arctic air diving south into Arizona and New Mexico is bound to produce lows heading northeast from Texas. Like the current one, the best they can do is give a front-end thump. Get one of these fat boys to form further east and head up the east coast, and you've got yourselves a HECS. Thinking March will deliver that potential. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 For the same reason we aren't having thunderstorms. By the way, look at this 576dm ridge approaching DC (we are stealing Europe's warmth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 GFS run is tragic. Cutter after cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 this is a good look on the FV3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: this is a good look on the FV3 lol Its going to be mid 60s on Sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: GFS run is tragic. Cutter after cutter 12z was perfect. 18z was suppressed. 0z north. Take the average!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Check out this warmth in the SW on 0z Euro 240. Signs of Spring to come imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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