CAPE Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately it’s VERY dry too Yeah unfortunately it has the cold/dry look, for now. March though, so we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 Unfortunately it’s VERY dry too Be careful for what you wish for when wishing for a pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Models might be overdoing this -NAO. Something tells me the -EPO isn't going to happen as strong either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The trough making it to Europe by Day 15 seems right but I'm not sure it will be -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately it’s VERY dry too Be careful for what you wish for when wishing for a pna Oh i would much rather a -NAO late winter but we get what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh i would much rather a -NAO late winter but we get what we get. Maybe the SER would be your friend in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z gefs brings back the epic look lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 From Don S a little while ago. Don does go onto to say that the first week in March has some potential for the New Yprk City area and tonights weeklies depict a cold first week of March and then warming thereafter. We are lucky some snow is in our forecast. New York City is missing it form the South and the North. Payback for Boxing Day , J/K Don S <<<< On February 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.524 (RMM). The amplitude was above the February 16-adjusted figure of 1.283. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8. The combination of a neutral-warm ENSO and a powerful polar vortex responsible for the strongly positive AO remain the dominant factors driving the pattern evolution. They will likely continue to predominate over the next week. As a result, MJO convection will have little meaningful impact on the larger pattern during that time. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. >>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, frd said: From Don S a little while ago. Don does go onto to say that the first week in March has some potential for the New Yprk City area and tonights weeklies depict a cold first week of March and then warming thereafter. We are lucky some snow is in our forecast. New York City is missing it form the South and the North. Payback for Boxing Day , J/K Don S <<<< On February 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.524 (RMM). The amplitude was above the February 16-adjusted figure of 1.283. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8. The combination of a neutral-warm ENSO and a powerful polar vortex responsible for the strongly positive AO remain the dominant factors driving the pattern evolution. They will likely continue to predominate over the next week. As a result, MJO convection will have little meaningful impact on the larger pattern during that time. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. >>> so what exactly did the SSW do again. AO has been positive pretty much all of feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 @psuhoffman @C.A.P.E. I figure I drop this over here after a brief exchange this AM with bluewave about the WAR and why it has been so constant and not willing to be displaced. His reply was interesting. Seems as we mentioned a few times in the past, the warm waters East of Aussie have a role , as does the High pressure ridge North of Hawaii. I imagine the High is a feature we see there due to the SST configuration from below. I guess you could say this SST configuration and the lack of a December with a significant - SOI and lack of coupling set in motion if you may the repeating and almost reinforced nature of the MJO in the warmer phases and the SSWE sure did not help. ( thats my speculative take ) From an atmospheric point of view, the QBO and nature of the SSWE sure did not present the downwelling that the weeklies forecasted for many runs in a row. But, I digress, here is what bluewave posted this morning about the WAR. here it is Posted 13 hours ago from bluewave The lack of snow this winter is par for the course for such a strong ridge north of Hawaii. This allows the SE Ridge to flex every time a low moves east. @bluewave that is very interesting. In the Mid Atlantic forum we are trying to figure out the cause for the resilient WAR . Even when we seem to have Atlantic or pac blocking modeled or even in real time that feature does not break down or shift that much to the East or Southeast. bluewave to clarify you are saying the reason for this is the association with strong ridge north of Hawaii ? And, if that is correct what is the driver for that feature North of Hawaii? I myself was wondering about the SSt East of Aussie and the OLR that forms waves, peaks and eddies that go from the SW Pacific to the SW Atlantic , is that the cause ? Someone else thought is was the warm SSTs in the Atlantic but that goes against what you are saying , because the strong ridge north of Hawaii has nothing to do with Atlantic SSTs. Thanks from bluewave : My guess is that the ridge north of Hawaii is part fo the pressure pattern we normally see with a +SOI and La Niña. During the fall into winter there were unusually warm SST’s east of Australia and cooler west. That is what we normally see with La Niña/+SOI. So the record +SOI December for an El Niño fit the expected pattern from that SST configuration. The warmer waters west of the Date Line is also associated with stronger MJO activity. The active and strong MJO seemed to enhance the overall Niña look to the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: so what exactly did the SSW do again. AO has been positive pretty much all of feb It did little overall to help us, partly some say due to the QBO this winter and other factors as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 @frd good news is that the few big snows we have had in non -NAO Nina years came in March. So the Nina pattern might leave the door open to an early March storm. 1976, 1999, 2009, 2017 all had March storms after mostly uneventful years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @frd good news is that the few big snows we have had in non -NAO Nina years came in March. So the Nina pattern might leave the door open to an early March storm. 1976, 1999, 2009, 2017 all had March storms after mostly uneventful years. Did you mean Niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Did you mean Niño? No he was saying how the pattern has Nina characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: No he was saying how the pattern has Nina characteristics. Does such a bizarre Nino/Nina hybrid have any precedent in the historical record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Does such a bizarre Nino/Nina hybrid have any precedent in the historical record? Weak ninos have been disrupted by other more dominant influences before yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 No he was saying how the pattern has Nina characteristics. Nina are usually not this wet and don't have a full time sti and dont clobber so cal with rain. This has been a Nino without blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: No he was saying how the pattern has Nina characteristics. Nina are usually not this wet and don't have a full time sti and dont clobber so cal with rain. This has been a Nino without blocking We have done better in February ninos without blocking like 2003 and 2015 though. This nino was also lacking the typical Aleutian trough epo ridge and instead featured a north pac ridge like a Nina. So I think a better description is like a Nina with an stj. Either way it had hybrid characteristics. Kidding aside the pattern coming up can work if we get just enough ridging either from the epo or NAO to suppress the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: No he was saying how the pattern has Nina characteristics. Nina are usually not this wet and don't have a full time sti and dont clobber so cal with rain. This has been a Nino without blocking Yeah it started raining in April when ENSO when Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Look at this massive -EPO. It's an artificial pattern though lol (1-2-3 (2)) *Be careful outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The daily SOI contribution today was -43. That is by far the best number yet ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The pattern long range is starting to look like 2014 and 2015 some. If your gonna live on the epo it needs to extend into Canada like that. When it’s directed into Alaska all it does is dump troughs into the west this time of year. That look might actually be too much...I would be a little worried about suppression IF that actually ended up correct. Also I can kinda see why 1993 is in the analogs. The way you get that kind of bomb is if something rotated and dives in under that displaced TPV and amplifies then pulls it in. You get the monster phased bomb. But that’s a super long shot. Most times that setup is there it doesn’t come together. Like 99%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The daily SOI contribution today was -43. That is by far the best number yet ! Were gonna need that stj once the TPV gets suppressed to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 @C.A.P.E. the eps has been sneakily trending towards the gefs. They break the Atlantic down towards the end but who cares what they do out in “haven’t had a clue all year” leads. Through day 8-12 big improvements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Were gonna need that stj once the TPV gets suppressed to our north. You still thinkin we have a window of snow in early March. regardless of all the mixed views and insights about the SOI, it sure has been on a tear. I wish for some STJ action in early March or at least a blip -NAO , maybe slow the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: he eps has been sneakily trending towards the gefs. They break the Atlantic down towards the end but who cares what they do out in “haven’t had a clue all year” leads. Through day 8-12 big improvements inside 290 hours, hey, thats better ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. the eps has been sneakily trending towards the gefs. They break the Atlantic down towards the end but who cares what they do out in “haven’t had a clue all year” leads. Through day 8-12 big improvements I was literally just looking at that exact panel lol. Pretty good look, and I kinda like the mid week period next week for something. Ens mean is hinting at some sort of a miller b deal around then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Were gonna need that stj once the TPV gets suppressed to our north. Interesting post from 33andrain, so as I read it the -SOI is manifested in such a way currently that the effects are not typical. Posted 6 hours ago 7 hours ago, Event Horizon said: SOI: -43.61 No surprises there.... We are in a major WWB, and it is having a negative effect on the SOI, by pushing a more tropical signal out towards Tahiti. More interestingly, the one thing the WWB is not affecting is the FT It is near it's negative low point, which seems to be contrary to the massive addition of westerly momentum. I don't think it is a coincidence, that the only +FT in the last three months was during the only strong WWB in the Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent on and around the 25th Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 guidance finally picking up on this? It's obvious the SE ridge and the TNH pattern is resisting the full impacts of a nino phase 8/1/2 which would typically go to full on NAO blocking and a deep eastern trough. The look now is more of a hybrid between a +TNH pattern and a nino MJO phase 8/1/2. The key to that compromise working is to get just enough ridge over the top to suppress the boundary south of us. Then we can either hit a wave like 2014 or 2015...or if we want to go for broke hope for the 1993 type of thing with something rotating down around the PV and bombing. It doesn't have to be to the extreme of 1993 (and very likely wouldn't be) to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Some interesting dates keep showing up in the super-ensemble analog guidance 11. Feb 1993 and March 1993 March 1984 March 1965 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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