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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Understood and makes sense. But some guidance is South of you guys even. So IF those ideas are right combined with your relaxing confluence then you guys could still be in just the right spot again....which is where I would put my $ right now....tho subject to a refund in the next 72 hours ;)

Subject to a refund of $.02?...

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Just an obs so fwiw....06z euro has a bit more vigorous s/w at hr 90 compared to 00z.  Surface reflection is about the same.  Certainly looks poised to slide under us.... 

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6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Just an obs so fwiw....06z euro has a bit more vigorous s/w at hr 90 compared to 00z.  Surface reflection is about the same.  Certainly looks poised to slide under us.... 

Slide under us in a good way? Or too far under?

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9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Slide under us in a good way? Or too far under?

Tough to tell for sure but the s/w is pretty much in the same spot as 0z just a little stronger/more defined.  Everything else looks the same...would be similar to 0z track but maybe a bit stronger surface low.  Just a guess...I hate extrapolating!  

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Tough to tell for sure but the s/w is pretty much in the same spot as 0z just a little stronger/more defined.  Everything else looks the same...would be similar to 0z track but maybe a bit stronger surface low.  Just a guess...I hate extrapolating!  

Little stronger would probably mean a larger precip field and get the guys a little further north into the good stuff. Still too far out to worry about any details. But I am feeling pretty good about this one.

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Just a quick mention  but the first in a week or more that the CPC AO ensembles look a lot better , overall concensus on a drop and a few members with a severe drop in the AO  Two members to a - 5 SD drop. Nice to see and matches what the GEPS put out yesterday near Greenland but at hour 324.  

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12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nice looking NAO and AO forecast. Fits right in with the PSU late February beatdown period.

The Pac forcing looks great this morning,  and now you see the indicies starting to line up with a typical MJO phase 8 and then a phase 1 composite. 

Out in the Pac now is the perfect storm lining up to produce snow for our region. 

 

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image.thumb.png.01437db690aaceebbaeaa06c24f0c6b7.png

Noaa and Topper may not see this Saturday, but whatever weather service MSN.com uses definitely sees it.  Tuesdays as well!

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Since the Saturday deal is only 4 days away, I’m going to split out a new thread after the 12z runs assuming they don’t recancel winter and this storm.

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7 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

WHY?

we can kiss this threat good bye.  aleets are like starting threads...starts off fun but then you get a mule kick to the pills and realize the plate in your head isn't big enough.  must have killed him to say northern half of VA. 

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Wonder if that NAO comes along in the lag period ala Feb  26 th to March 7... . 

HM can you follow up?  please

 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Supposed to be 60 on Friday...snow can't accumulate on Saturday...bust

you forgot about the JIsaster that the sun angle brings into the equation as well

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