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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
18 minutes ago, Chris78 said:
Total precip on the GEFS.  Pretty good signal for an active period.
gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.thumb.png.ddbd41b6bcb665fc09fe1cab85e7e12a.png

How much of that is rain before the 8th lol

It's actually really spread out through out the 16 days. About 1"qpf through the 7th. 1.5" qpf after. 

 

The point I was trying to make is that the SS is really active and later after about day 8 or 9 we could have plenty of chances  lol

 

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6 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said:

I'm done with tracking patterns 10 days in the future; not saying this one won't work, but I'm going to log off this website, uninstall my weather app, and see what things look like in 2 weeks :D

 

Just click on the winter 2019-2020 thread when you come back.  Speculation outperforms reality more often than not.

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38 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said:

I'm done with tracking patterns 10 days in the future; not saying this one won't work, but I'm going to log off this website, uninstall my weather app, and see what things look like in 2 weeks :D

 

Ya might wanna just peak in here a week from now...if it's gonna fall apart, I'd imagine we'd start seeing that by then, lol But hopefully this will be the real deal this time!

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Both the 0z gefs and eps seriously degraded the -NAO signal and so both fail to ever get the trough into the east and reestablish the eastern ridge.  

The snow mean on both also increased. Looking at the individual members as to why, there is a complete split within both ensembles. Looking at day 10-15 about half the members have blocking and an eastern trough and they are very snowy with coastals galore. The other half have no block and a huge eastern ridge and storms cutting to Green Bay and rain all the way to Canada. There is no in between. 

The glass half full view is that burried within a crappy mean is the fact that half still think this is going the right way. The glass half empty view is suddenly after majority support for blocking as it gets closer to being inside the realistic time period we start to see divergence not convergence on the blocking and this is exactly how it fell apart last time 2 weeks ago. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both the 0z gefs and eps seriously degraded the -NAO signal and so both fail to ever get the trough into the east and reestablish the eastern ridge.  

The snow mean on both also increased. Looking at the individual members as to why, there is a complete split within both ensembles. Looking at day 10-15 about half the members have blocking and an eastern trough and they are very snowy with coastals galore. The other half have no block and a huge eastern ridge and storms cutting to Green Bay and rain all the way to Canada. There is no in between. 

The glass half full view is that burried within a crappy mean is the fact that half still think this is going the right way. The glass half empty view is suddenly after majority support for blocking as it gets closer to being inside the realistic time period we start to see divergence not convergence on the blocking and this is exactly how it fell apart last time 2 weeks ago. 

We need a digital -NAO thread.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We need a digital -NAO thread.

Lol. I don’t want to be too negative. They didn’t lose it completely. And there are a lot of snow solutions in the members. But there is a lot more disagreement on whether we get enough blocking to get the trough to cut under into the easy than there was yesterday. So it was a step back imo. Hopefully just a hiccup. Curious what the mjo output looks like when it updates. Might shows a loop through 6 which would explain the step back last night. 

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Wasn't particularly enthused with the overnight runs. The issues we are seeing are most notable with the GEFS.

Below we have the 5 day mean for the last 3 00Z runs. AS you notice with the one directly below (The Jan 29th run of the 00z) the higher heights are centered over GL (-NAO) with some slight height builds into the SE. Also notice the higher heights over the gulf of Alaska. But notice the next two runs. We are seeing a migration of the higher heights into the WAR zone (western atlantic ridging) from the NAO domain until the final frame where we seeing higher heights extending from the deep southwest all the way up the east coast with a much weaker -NAO reflection. We really don't want to see that. To add insult to injury we are seeing the higher heights in the gulf of Alaska shifting westward as well. Again, not a good look especially if we lose the blocking over Greenland. And.... to kick a dog when it's down we are now seeing the GEFS bring troughing into the gulf of Alaska at the end of its run as well. ***(On a side note we did see the snowfall means increase on both the GEFS and the EPS so there is that :) )

jan29gefs.gif.6a94645348cf16193c4e8167750578b2.gif

 

jan30gefs.gif.0b90685aefbeecdfc850cd0be3584e0e.gif

 

jan31gefs.gif.c61198438b253fc1525f4212ad3560a8.gif

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Lol. I don’t want to be too negative. They didn’t lose it completely. And there are a lot of snow solutions in the members. But there is a lot more disagreement on whether we get enough blocking to get the trough to cut under into the easy than there was yesterday. So it was a step back imo. Hopefully just a hiccup. Curious what the mjo output looks like when it updates. Might shows a loop through 6 which would explain the step back last night. 
Isotherm said the gfs handling of the mjo is complete bs. So until it gets a handle...gefs meltdowns might be common place

In other news....winter is over. In fact..everytime @bobchill goes to bed...it ends
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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Isotherm said the gfs handling of the mjo is complete bs. So until it gets a handle...gefs meltdowns might be common place

In other news....winter is over. In fact..everytime @bobchill goes to bed...it ends

Really wouldn't overly concern myself with what the models have to say beyond 10 days. They haven't been exactly stellar this winter. Originally just looked at the 500mb means on the 06Z GEFS and to put it bluntly they took a big step backwards. But digging a little deeper and I see we are having some conflicting signals showing up. Not going to dive into each ensemble member to see why we are seeing this but suffice it to say I think the model is battling itself on how it wants to move forward. And it could very well be MJO related.

eta: Had to laugh at your mention of GEFS meltdowns as if it was everyone else that has them. If we can just keep you from melting down we would be golden in this thread. :whistle:

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41 minutes ago, Ji said:

Isotherm said the gfs handling of the mjo is complete bs. So until it gets a handle...gefs meltdowns might be common place

In other news....winter is over. In fact..everytime @bobchill goes to bed...it ends

I'm going out on a limb but your house will get the remaining 5 inches necessary for it to be a normal winter snowfall wise. I will go out on another limb and say that you won't be too happy about that. So it is written...

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10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Snow storms disappear and re-appear in the 6-10 day time frame.  Noise

Pattern changes disappear and re-appear in the 8-14 day time frame.  Noise

I'll keep the faith in a change to a favorable pattern at least for a few more forecast cycles 

-NAOs appear in the LR then fade to nothing inside of a week. Not noise. ;)

 

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