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WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

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7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

12z GFS and 6z FV3 still look decent.  FV3 gives 3-4 inches areawide.  Wonder if maybe the euro windshield wipes back a bit. 

If you believe the CMC, our surface temps are borderline so we lose a fair bit to rain or non-accumulating snow (I don’t have soundings but I would imagine the warm layer is super shallow and confined to the surface).  QPF is pretty good with 0.3-0.4”.  

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

If you believe the CMC, our surface temps are borderline so we lose a fair bit to rain or non-accumulating snow (I don’t have soundings but I would imagine the warm layer is super shallow and confined to the surface).  QPF is pretty good with 0.3-0.4”.  

Yeah it looks like the bulk of the precip falls between 18z (temps 37-38) and 00z (temps 34-35) in DC with 850s <0.  

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6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

FV3 gives Fairfax Co around 4”. Works for me! 

Wow really good run of FV3, models going different directions, really hope it’s right. 

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11 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS is fine for a 1-2”er. I need Queen FV3 and and King Euro to come around though before I put down @showmethesnow dollars. :whistle:

Not sure I would put my money on it just yet. That is if I still had it (Vegas is now the proud owner of everything, wife is still a little pissed about losing the house but whatever). If we continue to see a weakening and adjustment northwestward of the energy tracking through our general region I think even us up in the favored locals to the north and west will struggle to see an inch or two. Also haven't liked the tendencies we are seeing with the lift between 850 and the 700s. We need to see a stop to the bleeding here if not a full reversal otherwise we are close to losing just about everything. Haven't looked over any of the 12Z guidance as of yet and probably won't till later this afternoon so hopefully there are some positives to glean from it. And we have 3 days to get this right so hope is still alive. 

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I’m not thrilled that the gfs has shifted the axis of the precip slightly east the last 3 runs. That’s heading towards the fail icon/euro look. 

ETA:  it’s still good as is but I don’t like it moving towards a later developing wave, if that trend continues in future runs it could join the fail camp. 

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15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Wow really good run of FV3, models going different directions, really hope it’s right. 

I’d say. 0.4-0.5” QPF and we lose very little if any QPF to rain. 

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’d say. 0.4-0.5” QPF and we lose very little if any QPF to rain. 

It gets it done differently than those good euro runs from the last few days which had the precip hanging around until Wednesday am.  This is all a quick hitter Tuesday afternoon/evening.  It would be an excellent outcome. 

75D609A6-D8CA-4FEF-9AD6-D3DB945D98BD.png

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It gets it done differently than those good euro runs from the last few days which had the precip hanging around until Wednesday am.  This is all a quick hitter Tuesday afternoon/evening.  It would be an excellent outcome. 

75D609A6-D8CA-4FEF-9AD6-D3DB945D98BD.png

At least Bob is getting rewarded for all the great work and analysis he gives us. He has been in the jackpot all winter. 

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25 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

At least Bob is getting rewarded for all the great work and analysis he gives us. He has been in the jackpot all winter. 

I always treat all models nicely and with repsect because you never know which one is going to give or steal all your snow.

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Tuesday in the Northern Plains is going to be primo jebwalk weather, temps around ~ -18 for HIGHS with a refreshingly cool 18mph northerly breeze. It may feel like ~ -63 at times up there! They are also going to get 12 inches of fresh snow before the cool front.

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1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Tuesday in the Northern Plains is going to be primo jebwalk weather, temps around ~ -18 for HIGHS with a refreshingly cool 18mph northerly breeze. It may feel like ~ -63 at times up there!

I'd have to think about a jacket.....:unsure:

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1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

I'd have to think about a jacket.....:unsure:

Girlfriend is in Madison for the winter.  Honestly considered going over there for the cold snap, don't know when I'll ever experience something like that.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Euro looking way better.  I don’t trust the SV snow maps but its showing a swath of 4-6” for DC.  QPF nearing 0.5”...wow.

 

647ABC18-5C38-44B4-9AAC-E74B06C80EB4.png

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Actually, every storm this year has looked good in medium range, crapped out in the 48-72hr range, then come back strong in the last 36-48hrs. Not saying it will happen like that again, but...

:)

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If we somehow manage a solid event Tuesday then temps could be interesting post front. Fresh snowpack and air mass can yield interesting temperature departures.

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