• Member Statistics

    15,858
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Waltzman
    Newest Member
    Waltzman
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

NAM changes over at 21z along 95 and has maybe 0.15” fall after that.  The snow depth output on IWM is coating-like.  This honestly makes the most sense.

It still could be enough to cause mayhem on the roads.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the globals go the same way as the nams I'll take it more seriously. We're right in the nam's wheelhouse for oscillating between good runs and bad ones. We do this with every.single.event

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

If the globals go the same way as the nams I'll take it more seriously. We're right in the nam's wheelhouse for oscillating between good runs and bad ones. We do this with every.single.event

The nam performs better than the euro at this range ? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, frd said:

The nam performs better than the euro at this range ? 

I'm just saying that the nams have a knack of either taking away our snow or giving us false hope leading in. I can think of few if any events where they didn't. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are terrible. Good luck guessing which direction right now. I'll wait until the globals run before worrying one way or the other.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm just saying that the nams have a knack of either taking away our snow or giving us false hope leading in. I can think of few if any events where they didn't. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are terrible. Good luck guessing which direction right now. I'll wait until the globals run before worrying one way or the other.

Relatively speaking the ICON doesn't look any worse than 18z, a bit wetter in a few areas and according to TT a bit more snow in N MD vs the last run. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RGEM is a qpf bomb (0.5 from I95 north and west with more to come as the run ends at 0Z) as it spins up a sfc low along the front but a good bit of that is rain especially towards DC. North of 70/west of 83 is mostly snow. Will be interesting to see the HRDPS later. Where's cae with the RGEM ensembles?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 0z RGEM is in and is very juicy in CMD, .5-.6 QPF, warm overall though the rain snow line is a bit NW of 95. Snow map 4-5" up into Westminster, FDK, and PSU ville, 2-3" down closer to the metros. Regardless, nice to see that type of wet solution and a good 8-10 hours of precip vs what the NAM showed. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

ICON still looks good for a dusting -2 inches

I have no doubt I will see a couple hours of moderate snow followed by rapid clearing and cold winds.  That’s all this event ever was or will be. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, digital snow said:

OMG... the ICON, just stop. Fun to look at, but is batting 0for life on every storm since its inception. Gets the right idea sort of, but misses the key outcome every time fwiw

 

Yeah you're right, that's why its called guidance, not our forecast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, digital snow said:

OMG... the ICON, just stop. Fun to look at, but is batting 0for life on every storm since its inception. Gets the right idea sort of, but misses the key outcome every time fwiw

 

That simply isnt true. It has out performed the GFS this year so far. And it has been rock solid with its runs. It hasnt waffled at all in the past 4 runs. If anything it shows the most realistic expectation for this event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, T. August said:

Hr 19 off the RGEM. Its temp distribution is borderline impossible. The Bay isn’t frozen.

F6BC267E-843F-41D0-A15F-CA57313620B4.jpeg

Nvm the gfs and icon are doing it too... what the hell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even if this ends up as only an inch or so of snow, this is going to be a high-impact event for sure.     With temps falling into the 20s quickly after the precip ends, that covering of snow will freeze quickly and lead to icy streets and sidewalks.    I expect widespread school delays Wednesday morning, with cancellations also possible, especially if the 00z GFS is right with us not getting anywhere near freezing Wednesday.    (Earlier runs and the 00z NAM have us getting to near 30 Wednesday just ahead of the push of the real arctic air.)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, yoda said:

CMC is decent as well for N VA and DC into C MD

In terms of QPF but the snow map definitely scaled back. Shows more rain initially 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the gfs is too warm then most or all the precip from nova/dc and north would be snow. Sounding shows the column above 925mb below freezing. Surface is 37-40 around dc/close burbs. Knock 3-5 degrees off of that and it's snow. Gfs might be right but it wouldn't take much for less rain and more snow.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

QPF bleeding to the east has halted for the time being... now I just need it to go back west a few hundred miles.

gfs-apcpn-neus-fh54-trend.gif

It’s interesting that EZF is around 0.5” of on  latest GFS and the 12z Euro, yet some how CHO is around 0.15” or 0.2” big difference over short area. I’m just not sure the temps will cooperate as much down here around FXBG to present more than maybe 1 inch. Hopefully I’m wrong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It’s interesting that EZF is around 0.5” of on  latest GFS and the 12z Euro, yet some how CHO is around 0.15” or 0.2” big difference over short area. I’m just not sure the gems will cooperate as much down here around FXBG to present more than maybe 1 inch. Hopefully I’m wrong


It’s definitely interesting. Don’t know if it’s a sort of coastal element taking over or the precip needing time to reform over the mountains. It also seems to not be as cold in Charlottesville.

We’ll see.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.