Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol. I just saw the 00z GEFS vs the EPS. They are literally night and day like Scooter said earlier. EPS have a monster EPO ridge while GEFS actually has a trough and negative height anomalies in that region. GEFS would be a mild pattern while Euro would be quite cold. I did note (as someone else did too above) that the 06z GEFS caved toward EPS some. It's a good learning opportunity (as an aside..) The teleconnectors from the CPC/CDC indicate a warm look - I mentioned this yesterday (...gee, wonder why no one recalls haha) But yeah, what you're describing is the illustrated version of those agencies' graphical layouts... one that continued through last night's computation cycle. Mind you ... said cycle is based off of the 00z guidance numbers, not the 06z. So, we have a good old fashioned boxing match between the ensemble clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Absolutely horrid pattern shown by the ensembles particularly the GEFS last night. Probably 60s well into New England on more than one occasion, a lot of rain, plenty of eastern ridging. It would take a miracle to turn this sinking ship around. Eps is better. It would take the eps to turn things around and we still have some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Settle it 70/30 towards EURO and we’re letlft with cold shots and chilly rains? That’s my bet. Tough to blend when the models bifurcate like that. Typically one is going to be right, the other wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a good learning opportunity (as an aside..) The teleconnectors from the CPC/CDC indicate a warm look - I mentioned this yesterday (...gee, wonder why no one recalls haha) But yeah, what you're describing is the illustrated version of those agencies' graphical layouts... one that continued through last night computations as well. So, we have a good old fashioned boxing match between the ensemble clusters. Here's an arbitrary time period for the same time on each run...it's like this for most of the run too. EPS is first and GEFS is second. You can see up in the EPO region it's not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's an arbitrary time period for the same time on each run...it's like this for most of the run too. EPS is first and GEFS is second. You can see up in the EPO region it's not even close. Mm ... just offering a (possible) alternative interpretation there ... That may not be "bad" for winter enthusiasts from the Lakes to NE region. Firstly, ... There are subtle confluence signatures about that flow between southern/SE Canada ... Case in point, this system of later this week's cold (or not) surface profile is heavily guided by that, so in a sense ... this mean above is sort of transfixing the pattern (probably not likely in its self). Secondly, one needs to keep in mind that this is a (N-depictions)/N-terms illustration ... If (say) half the members have something more coherently top heavy with high pressure ... they'd be lost in this look above, when the look above does not outright preclude the possibility of events of that ilk taking place. In the twit -sphere version: the GEFs mean offers some chance for ice/cold overrunning. Yes it could be mild...but the alternative impression has merit in my mind too. No question the EPS version would cold load the mid latitudes of N/A ... how much so dependent upon how amped (obviously) that ridge in the west poked N. The outlook for mid month has spice of life! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is better. It would take the eps to turn things around and we still have some time. Time is not on our side. 4 weeks left to really go gangbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Time is not on our side. 4 weeks left to really go gangbusters. Yeah... we hope for the best... but it doesn’t look good. At some point, you just have to call it what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Time is not on our sides. 4 weeks left to really go gangbusters. Well we did pretty good in March last year. 6 weeks I’d say in theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well we did pretty good in March last year. 6 weeks is day in theory. I love big Mar snows. Looks like we get nothing until mid Feb, though, at best. I’m in your camp at this point....sit back, expect nothing, but something may break right for a couple good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 We flood instead of freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The post tones in here are of a beaten weather weenie. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... we hope for the best... but it doesn’t look good. At some point, you just have to call it what it is. Humble pies delivered on our doorsteps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Mid century last year there were couple examples (if not several) where more that 50% of the year's cryo - mass occurred in March. ...that said, re the GEFs vs the EPS ... It occurs to me, the GEFs did out-performed the EPS earlier in winter in one of these outlook periods, and we collectively commented about it... Just keep that in mind, that the EPS doesn't always rule over the GEFs ... as we 'pick and chose' which cluster may (or not) "phase" with our souls. ha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Yeah the 6z GEFS made a big move to the EPS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the 6z GEFS made a big move to the EPS. Did WSI /Ventrice put out a winter outlook Why would anyone pimp the CFS just waiting for the tropical forcing to march Enso state ? Are they not a laughing stock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did WSI /Ventrice put out a winter outlook yes and it has largely been spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did WSI /Ventrice put out a winter outlook Why would anyone pimp the CFS just waiting for the tropical forcing to march Enso state ? Are they not a laughing stock Mike knows his stuff, but he tweeted about a -AO from the cmc SIPS for summer the other day that left me puzzled. I mean, unless you’re posting something to laugh at it, why post stuff from inferior guidance consistently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Regarding the 0z runs, once I saw GEPS I figured it eps held we can probably toss the extreme outlier. EPS held and GEFS started to cave at 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 CFS again looks like middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did WSI /Ventrice put out a winter outlook Why would anyone pimp the CFS just waiting for the tropical forcing to march Enso state ? Are they not a laughing stock I think it’s to show the differnt guidance showing -NAO potential. I’m not sure I buy it to that extent, but it won’t be raging positive I don’t think. The outlook was for colder to start with milder middle and then cooler end (remember this more for temps) and colder back half, but nobody really anticipated how it’s occurring with essentially La Niña. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I distinctly recall Walter Drag's involvement in discussion ... way back in the Eastern WX hay-day ... He intimated pretty clearly that the 06z versions are not initiated with the full compliment of original data in the population of the initialization grids. They are based on partial ingest of new, combined with the 6 hourly propagation off the previous cycle. Same for the 18z runs for that matter. I don't know if that is still true? But if it is... just something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 If this El Nino is acting like a La Nina, does that change how the MJO phases behave (I.e. phase 7 la Nina vs. Nino)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I distinctly recall Walter Drag's involvement in discussion ... way back in the Eastern WX hay-day ... He intimated pretty clearly that the 06z versions are not initiated with the full compliment of original data in the population of the initialization grids. They are based on partial ingest of new, combined with the 6 hourly propagation off the previous cycle. Same try for the 18z runs for that matter. I don't know if that is still true? But if it is... just something to keep in mind. That's pretty much correct. The 06/18z runs start at the 6 hour forecast from 00/12z. The difference now is that there is a wealth of new data to assimilate into the 6 hour forecast (and model 6 hour forecasts are much better than they were even 10 years ago). The reality is the 00/12z are also a forecast of 0 hour conditions from the model, and adjusted the same way with real observations. So the difference is really only slightly older forecast data, and many fewer balloons (but satellite input far outnumbers balloon data anyway). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If this El Nino is acting like a La Nina, does that change how the MJO phases behave (I.e. phase 7 la Nina vs. Nino)? Possibly ...via convection enhancing in the couple atmosphere-oceanic state. The problem is...though there is modest surface SST anomalies ... on the order of a +5 C in what's considered the critical NINO 3.4 region ... the atmosphere has not really demonstrated a very coupled state with the anomaly... That's per CPC January 10 publication found here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Their statements don't reflect an EL NINO forcing into the atmosphere anywhere at this time... So, I don't know if that "means" flopping the forcing/causality to EL NINA, per se... I think it really just means that's not a factor - or, "N/S", which in Met parlance means No Skill. There are other reasons why the MJO may or may not be effectual on forcing/observably therein, in the escape regions of the lower middle latitudes (subtropics ... and moving away from the wave propagation zone, which is roughly 20 degrees astride the equator). If the on-going maelstrom of the hemispheric flow is out of phase with the MJO, that's called a destructive wave interference ... which simply means that the MJO's ability to force the pattern is being mitigated, albeit not absolutely ... in part. The same holds true the other direction... if the hemispheric rosby locking is concert, the MJO will plausibly enhance that even further. Some times the Pacific enters the AA phase prior to any MJO emerging in late phase 7 .. thru then 8-1-2 ... (which are the quadrature(s) that correlate to western ridging (N/A) ). Then .. .the MJO moves out of the marine sub-continent (entering 8), and it's forcing is in phase with that surrounding medium ... and the surrounding medium gets a boost. It's kind of similar to "rogue wave" theory... where you have ridges and troughs on a stormy sea, but out of no where ... a ridge is 70 foot towering abysal wall of gray-green terror ... perhaps twice as tall and massive as the surrounding 30 foot up down motion of the wave field. That is "constructive wave interference" physically presenting... The atmosphere does something ... crudely similar... when the MJO comes out in a strong Phase 8 and the Pac is already in a AA phase (which by the way means phased in multiple latitudes), then the resulting pattern "rogues" into a very clear and coherent western ridge ... which of course concomitantly features a downstream trough over eastern N/A... When the Pac is in an AB phase? Said MJO is getting damped and though it's forcing is present... it's lost often by phasing destruction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Possibly ...via convection enhancing in the couple atmosphere-oceanic state. The problem is...though there is modest surface SST anomalies ... on the order of a +5 C in what's considered the critical NINO 3.4 region ... the atmosphere has not really demonstrated a very couple state with the anomaly... That's per CPC January 10 publication found here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Their statements don't reflect an EL NINO forcing into the atmosphere anywhere at this time... So, I don't know if that "means" flopping the forcing/causality to EL NINA, per se... I think it really just means that's not a factor - or, "N/S", which in Met parlance means No Skill. There are other reasons why the MJO may or may not be effectual on forcing/observably therein, in the escape regions of the lower middle latitudes (subtropics ... and moving away from the wave propagation zone, which is roughly 20 degrees astride the equator). If the on-going maelstrom of the hemispheric flow is out of phase with the MJO, that's called a destructive wave interference ... which simply means that the MJO's ability to force the pattern is being mitigated, albeit not absolutely ... in part. The same holds true the other direction... if the hemispheric rosby locking is concert, the MJO will plausibly enhance that even further. Some times the Pacific enters the AA phase prior to any MJO emerging in late phase 7 .. thru then 8-1-2 ... (which are the quadrature(s) that correlate to western ridging (N/A) ). Then .. .the MJO moves out of the marine sub-continent (entering 8), and it's forcing is in phase with that surrounding medium ... and the surrounding medium gets a boost. It's kind of similar to "rogue wave" theory... where you have ridges and troughs on a stormy sea, but out of no where ... a ridge is 70 foot towering abysal wall of gray-green terror ... perhaps twice as tall and massive as the surrounding 30 foot up down motion of the wave field. That is "constructive wave interference" physically presenting... The atmosphere does something ... crudely similar... when the MJO comes out in a strong Phase 8 and the Pac is already in a AA phase (which by the way means phased in multiple latitudes), then the resulting pattern "rogues" into a very clear and coherent western ridge ... which of course concomitantly features a downstream trough over eastern N/A... When the Pac is in an AB phase? Said MJO is getting damped and though it's forcing is present... it's lost often by phasing destruction. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's pretty much correct. The 06/18z runs start at the 6 hour forecast from 00/12z. The difference now is that there is a wealth of new data to assimilate into the 6 hour forecast (and model 6 hour forecasts are much better than they were even 10 years ago). The reality is the 00/12z are also a forecast of 0 hour conditions from the model, and adjusted the same way with real observations. So the difference is really only slightly older forecast data, and many fewer balloons (but satellite input far outnumbers balloon data anyway). Two comments ... a ... that's certainly good. I suppose the idea there is that if we can't fund/finance the full compliment of data ( tongue in cheek ... but perhaps seriously) than that's still an improvement/gap control measure. Nice. b ... I'm a big fan of emergence and propagating cosmic dildos. That's crude and offensive for some (thank god!) ... but, sufficed it is to say, I don't like leaving anything to chance. I could see even subtle 6 hourly ... unnoticed emergence/fractals caused by d(date and date) results ... going on to make the GEFs "look" more like the EPS ... while being faux in doing so. I guess I'd rather the 00z/12z cycles crash and burn, and the 06z/18z cycles have their own incredulity. But I know... That's tongue in cheek to some degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 23 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: You are melting...it's okay. It is going to ice this week, it just wasn't imminent 2 days ago. I think Kevin just doesn't the definition of imminent. about to happen. "they were in imminent danger of being swept away" synonyms: impending, at hand, close, near, approaching, fast approaching, coming, forthcoming, on the way, about to happen, upon us, in store, in the offing, in the pipeline, on the horizon, in the air, in the wind, brewing, looming, looming large; Our culture these days seems to be about aggrandizement, i.e. "the biggest, the greatest ever, blah blah blah" Maybe he's caught up in that. The winter is meh but it could still change and the models suggest that is possible, perhaps even likely. Switzerland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Two comments ... a ... that's certainly good. I suppose the idea there is that if we can fund/finance the full compliment of data ( tongue in cheek ... but perhaps seriously) than that's still an improvement/gap control measure. Nice. b ... I'm a big fan of emergence and propagating cosmic dildos. That's crude and offensive for some (thank god!) ... but, sufficed it is to say, I don't like leaving anything to chance. I could see even subtle 6 hourly ... unnoticed emergence/fractals caused by d(date) resolution ... going on to make the GEFs "look" more like the EPS ... while being faux in doing so. I guess I'd rather the 00z/12z cycles crash and burn, and the 06z/18z cycles have their own incredulity. But I know... That's tongue in cheek to some degree. a) Is definitely part of the emerging science. The future would be satellites that can do soundings. We're already part of the way there with GOES-16/17. They have 3 different WV channels to sample moisture at roughly 700, 500, 300 mb. b) Is definitely a source of potential errors. Convection is always a problem, but NWP has come a long way from having convective feedback that early in the cycle. It wasn't that long ago when by hour 6 a nocturnal MCS could already be running wild through the GFS. It goes to show you how much work the GEFS need though. Realistically there shouldn't be such wild swings from 00z to 06z, given it's the same base set of data. I'll be curious to see if the EPS 06/18z runs show as much volatility, but as of yet I don't have access to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Cmc has a good pattern but suppression is a danger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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