CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Interior icing gone on 6z GFS. Nice long overrunning rains, excect for damaging ice Northern Champlain Valley with cold air surface drain. Then more SWFE but it is amazing how these models engineer any way for it not to snow in the populated parts of this regional forum. I’ve accepted it and moved on. It is what it is. If it works out and we go on a run, great. It still has the potential look, but I’m just being realistic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just punt it folks. Even the nice looking epo on the long range eps will trough the west, not in sne favor. The 80s were fun with great music, mullets, and pac-man....but weenies piad for it with shitty winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 GFS delivering mid 60s to sne on Friday. Jelly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just punt it folks. Even the nice looking epo on the long range eps will trough the west, not in sne favor. The 80s were fun with great music, mullets, and pac-man....but weenies piad for it with shitty winters. The GEFS and EPS are night and day. The EPS looks good overall. This week coming up Is just a reload in the EPO. The GEFS are troughing from AK to CA. I can’t belive how different they are. The 00z GEFS did cave a bit after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: GFS delivering mid 60s to sne on Friday. Jelly. So I’m expecting 38 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So I’m expecting 38 and rain. lol probably. Euro keeps most wedged despite 850s over 10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Icy look really strengthening Th/ Fri eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS delivering mid 60s to sne on Friday. Jelly. Hook that up please. My nape is pale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Ice is not preferable to rain unless you have a deep pack to maintain. Voodoo or good news? I lean great news. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The GEFS and EPS are night and day. The EPS looks good overall. This week coming up Is just a reload in the EPO. The GEFS are troughing from AK to CA. I can’t belive how different they are. The 00z GEFS did cave a bit after day 10.6z gefs caved some in d11-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ice is not preferable to rain unless you have a deep pack to maintain. Voodoo or good news? I lean great news. Winter is finally arriving . We’ll get a couple good weeks. It does look like it ends Mid Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Funny how GFS is the most amped for next week when 24 hours ago it was the flattest. Euro looks icy in the interior so def need to still watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I lean voodoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winter is finally arriving . We’ll get a couple good weeks. It does look like it ends Mid Morch Are you saying winter's going to be coming in 10 days? Hold my beer....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I lean voodoo Isn't he your cubicle mate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Isn't he your cubicle mate? He’s a friend. That’s the CFS too. The euro guidance does start to show dateline forcing. I feel like the only ridging we can muster up lately is a little Icelandic nipple poking into Greenland. The hype for the NAO started in early December. I’ve never seen such absurd and over the top hype for that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He’s a friend. That’s the CFS too. The euro guidance does start to show dateline forcing. I feel like the only ridging we can muster up lately is a little Icelandic nipple poking into Greenland. The hype for the NAO started in early December. I’ve never seen such absurd and over the top hype for that. Can we muster up a few snowstorms This month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I can't wait for this February thaw. 50s will feel glorious. Since it hasn't snowed let's keep it that way. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can we muster up a few snowstorms TGIF month? I hope. Normally I would say yes, but this year is the Tippy cosmic pleasure device. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Much as I love great snowstorms its been kind of a godsend with my physical limitations. I truly believe we will finally see a pattern conducive to sne winter storms. If we don't it will go down as the most incredible pretty cold very wet non winter of my life. Its extremely hard to be around normal in temps and WAN in precip and have little snow in my hood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: a little Icelandic nipple poking This yields interesting results on Google. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Tells us all we need to know about the next 15 days, going to be a STJ SWFE pattern, question is how deep is the cold in our hood. We need lots of Quebec highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Absolutely horrid pattern shown by the ensembles particularly the GEFS last night. Probably 60s well into New England on more than one occasion, a lot of rain, plenty of eastern ridging. It would take a miracle to turn this sinking ship around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: So I’m expecting 38 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Gfs next week is like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 great concerts, looking forward to summer and lots of beach now that I am retired. Tan man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 It's a recurrent theme ...one that's been rehashing all season (and probably last season and the year before for that matter). The GFS picks up on some scenario in the late middle and extended ranges that the Euro may or may not even have much in the way of detection and presentation. GFS sticks with it's overall evolution until about mid way through the middle range; in the interim, the Euro having not only caught on, but phases a bomb through the Lakes... GFS still has it's idea but then starts moving toward the more amplitude scenario of the Euro... Day four roles around and the Euro's within the 90th percentile accuracy and has the system nailed down as being similar (though not exact) to whatever it was the GFS originally had back when it was late middle and extended range; the GFS is (in this case) although still flat, will inevitably be running the boundary coherently and obviously too far NW of theoretical limitations for BL resistance and the harping and chiding and excoriation of that particular tool is well underway by the Lords Of The Internet bully -pulpit Flies... Then, a day ...day and half before, the GFS finally tries to either reintroduce, either way ... acknowledge the boundary layer forcing, ...The Euro of course has been unwavering for the last two to three days..., and everyone's toeing the castigation line against the GFS as this horrible abomination to the technical advancement of deterministic Meteorology. It's all happened ... pretty much just like that... like seven times since this mistake of a winter started logging weeks in the books. The astute, objective readers of this sardonic op ed might see the deeper problem with model evaluation that is intimated... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a recurrent theme ...one that's been rehashing all season (and probably last season and the year before for that matter). The GFS picks up on some scenario in the late middle and extended ranges that the Euro may or may not even have much in the way of detection and presentation. GFS sticks with it's overall evolution until about mid way through the middle range; in the interim, the Euro having not only caught on, but phases a bomb through the Lakes... GFS still has it's idea but then starts moving toward the more amplitude scenario of the Euro... Day four roles around and the Euro's within the 90th percentile accuracy and has the system nailed down as being similar (though not exact) to whatever it was the GFS originally had back when it was late middle and extended range; the GFS is (in this case) although still flat, will inevitably be running the boundary coherently and obviously too far NW of theoretical limitations for BL resistance and the harping and chiding and excoriation of that particular tool is well underway by the Lords Of The Internet bully -pulpit Flies... Then, a day ...day and half before, the GFS finally tries to either reintroduce, either way ... acknowledge the boundary layer forcing, ...The Euro of course has been unwavering for the last two to three days..., and everyone's toeing the castigation line against the GFS as this horrible abomination to the technical advancement of deterministic Meteorology. It's all happened ... pretty much just like that... like seven times since this mistake of a winter started logging weeks in the books. The astute, objective readers of this sardonic op ed might see the deeper problem with model evaluation that is intimated... It’s still can’t be nailed down, but I find it hilarious it decided to give us a spring kiss after trying to reinact something from the 1994 playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Lol. I just saw the 00z GEFS vs the EPS. They are literally night and day like Scooter said earlier. EPS have a monster EPO ridge while GEFS actually has a trough and negative height anomalies in that region. GEFS would be a mild pattern while Euro would be quite cold. I did note (as someone else did too above) that the 06z GEFS caved toward EPS some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol. I just saw the 00z GEFS vs the EPS. They are literally night and day like Scooter said earlier. EPS have a monster EPO ridge while GEFS actually has a trough and negative height anomalies in that region. GEFS would be a mild pattern while Euro would be quite cold. I did note (as someone else did too above) that the 06z GEFS caved toward EPS some. Settle it 70/30 towards EURO and we’re letlft with cold shots and chilly rains? That’s my bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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