ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: You obviously need more perfectly aligned conditions for the later season events. Preferably nocturnal, otherwise very cold air masses. Almost every event I listed was most notable at night. Hell even the December 2008 storm was mostly nocturnal for the biggest accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS aren't backing down on the EPO ridge. More like doubling down. Lots of Arctic blasts with that look. GEFS are still not agreeing but they have been caving on the 06z and 12z cycles. Not much question in my mind that EPS is right...but are still gonna need some breaks without any PNA and not much NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It wasn’t warm no, but something shifted the storm track / gradient north. And it wasn’t bad luck It wasn’t due to a ‘warming climate’ either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not much question in my mind that EPS is right...but are still gonna need some breaks without any PNA and not much NAO. I mean...it's weird that we're so reflexively defensive all of the sudden...but this is the classic pattern where we would say "this is gonna give us a ton of chances but gotta watch for a cutter mixed in"...and usually everyone ignores the cutter aspect. But now it's all we focus on, lol. Tells us that we haven't exactly been getting a February 2014 (if you recall, that was pure EPO and no NAO help and No real PNA ridge, kind of neutral). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It wasn’t due to a ‘warming climate’ either. It’s all part and parcel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s all part and parcel Yea but we missed several systems to the south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean...it's weird that we're so reflexively defensive all of the sudden...but this is the classic pattern where we would say "this is gonna give us a ton of chances but gotta watch for a cutter mixed in"...and usually everyone ignores the cutter aspect. But now it's all we focus on, lol. Tells us that we haven't exactly been getting a February 2014 (if you recall, that was pure EPO and no NAO help and No real PNA ridge, kind of neutral). Feb 2014 was pretty lame imo...no huge events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea but we missed several systems to the south too. He makes Bill Nye look like Galileo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Feb 2014 was pretty lame imo...no huge events. I had 41 inches that month I think and two separate 12"+ events. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I had 41 inches that month I think and two separate 12"+ events. Lol. I'll have to look back, but I don't think it was great here. I was also losing my dad then, so I wasn't totally invested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS aren't backing down on the EPO ridge. More like doubling down. Lots of Arctic blasts with that look. GEFS are still not agreeing but they have been caving on the 06z and 12z cycles. Im seeing more atlantic/se ridge poking from the south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea but we missed several systems to the south too. So that’s bad luck or something that was atmospherically induced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember that March 1991 event....nasty ice event right down near the coast. That was the one when I deiced my father's Saab with a chisel. Looked like it had been in a severe hail storm afterwards. Pops was not thrilled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So that’s bad luck or something that was atmospherically induced? Luck can be induced by anything. Was Mahomes losing the coin flip bad luck, or coin flip induced? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Im seeing more atlantic/se ridge poking from the south though. Yea, I'm not in love with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Im seeing more atlantic/se ridge poking from the south though. Yeah it's been trying to show that a little more but I'm pretty skeptical of much on that front and not sure how useful it will be if it stays mostly in the Norwegian Sea. We can do pretty well if a powerful block forms near Iceland even, but it seems it keeps wanting to show some ridging poking back and it ends up weaker than advertised by the time we get near verification. But we'll see, there's some more background signal for -NAO with the tropical forcing we will be going into so perhaps this one will get a little boost there and that's all it needs. Edit: misread you...thought you said more -NAO ridging from south which there is. As for SE ridging. Yeah that's gonna be there as long as we have no PNA ridging and/or no Davis strait blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's been trying to show that a little more but I'm pretty skeptical of much on that front and not sure how useful it will be if it stays mostly in the Norwegian Sea. We can do pretty well if a powerful block forms near Iceland even, but it seems it keeps wanting to show some ridging poking back and it ends up weaker than advertised by the time we get near verification. But we'll see, there's some more background signal for -NAO with the tropical forcing we will be going into so perhaps this one will get a little boost there and that's all it needs. It also has Feb nino climo going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 35 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Im seeing more atlantic/se ridge poking from the south though. Some south east ridge helps sometimes doesn’t it? And it looks like there’s at least a bit of ridging up around Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It also has Feb nino climo going for it. But feb Nina circulation in real present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not in love with that look. It’s a gradient pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: But feb Nina circulation in real present Its an el nino...deal with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a gradient pattern Yea, and I'd rather not risk more Facts of Life reruns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Under normal circumstances....as in before the past week or 2 we’d say that’s a weenie eps run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not in love with that look. We need some SE ridge to gets storms up here unless you want D.C to get hit with every storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Can someone post H5 for the 1978-79 and 1979-80 winters? TYIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: We need some SE ridge to gets storms up here unless you want D.C to get hit with every storm. There is a reason Powerfreak is stroking stakes under several feet of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Can someone post H5 for the 1978-79 and 1979-80 winters? TYIA. I mentioned that earlier...maybe not a great H5 analog, but sensible weather wise is sne its a good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 My absolute worst fear is a continued steady diet of Scott Baio-arctic blasts and Facts of life-rainer sandwiches for another month. I'd rather be hung from a street light by my testicle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Under normal circumstances....as in before the past week or 2 we’d say that’s a weenie eps run. Agreed. It honestly looks like Feb 1994...or maybe a cross between Feb '94 and Feb '14...but we're snakebit right now so all that people can think of is how it can go wrong but honestly, maybe that's good for some....for too long I feel as if only the positives have been focused on because things usually break our way the past 2 decades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Can someone post H5 for the 1978-79 and 1979-80 winters? TYIA. And then factor in current climate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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