40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Diff from 2015 is that we don't have the PNA ridge, which was also perfectly placed....however it looks like we may have a bit more NAO. Botton line: Expect snowier outcomes, but not 100" in 30 days. I still think this could go the way of Feb 1969 sensible weather wise..perhaps just colder. We have less NAO than 1969, but better EPO....similar RNA. Maybe colder with a bit less snow than 1969... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Diff from 2015 is that we don't have the PNA ridge, which was also perfectly placed....however it looks like we may have a bit more NAO. Botton line: Expect snowier outcomes, but not 100" in 30 days. Was GEFS good too? This may be real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Was GEFS good too? This may be real deal. IDK, probably....not often we see great EPS, and bleh GEFS...usually the other way around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: IDK, probably....not often we see great EPS, and bleh GEFS...usually the other way around. The way the GFS is handling the MJO it’s not surprising. You have to add in a phase 6 lag and then a bad phase 7. Even if the GEFS went out to 800 hours right now it probably wouldn’t look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What are we talking... .6" over 36 hours? On the euro? Yeah maybe even a little more. Admittedly if we get even like 0.8 qpf over a long period with pretty light rates overall, that could be pretty bad. You'd only need like a 0.60 to 0.70 accretion efficiency to get a half inch of ice which starts to cause huge problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think this could go the way of Feb 1969 sensible weather wise..perhaps just colder. We have less NAO than 1969, but better EPO....similar RNA. Maybe colder with a bit less snow than 1969... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 The Atlantic will be much different. You won’t have much of a -NAO and the ridging over the SE is the opposite of that composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: The Atlantic will be much different. You won’t have much of a -NAO and the ridging over the SE is the opposite of that composite. I already said that. Alaska is much better, though...you leave that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Yeah the massive EPO showing up now is not gonna be like feb '69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the massive EPO showing up now is not gonna be like feb '69 Looks like the main similarity is the RNA during a nino.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I think its very cold, but maybe tough to get big snow event without big NAO or PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Doubt it... more hyperbole and lies from the EPS... What is this... week three now of D11-15 savior ? ... someone's havin' trouble verifying favorably ... just sayn' 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I read what you all post, and then i compare that to what actually occurs...most of you are still sharing optimistic possibilities...but the outcomes havent matched up with your optimistic possibilities, nne is still the only area getting snow...cne is still getting mixed bags, sne is still getting rain, we are still getting cutters mixed with colder outbreaks...i admire the optimism...but...it just keeps on, keeping on... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What value does this have for 11 days from now? There is no value in trying to guess an outcome 11 days from now...ever...whatever guidance shows today, is not how it will play out at day 11. It makes more sense to stay with the pattern than to keep saying the changes are showing up at D11... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: There is no value in trying to guess an outcome 11 days from now...ever...whatever guidance shows today, is not how it will play out at day 11. It makes more sense to stay with the pattern than to keep saying the changes are showing up at D11... Persistence forecasting is silly. There is actually plenty of value in long range forecasting...plenty of people make a good living doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I read what you all post, and then i compare that to what actually occurs...most of you are still sharing optimistic possibilities...but the outcomes havent matched up with your optimistic possibilities, nne is still the only area getting snow...cne is still getting mixed bags, sne is still getting rain, we are still getting cutters mixed with colder outbreaks...i admire the optimism...but...it just keeps on, keeping on... I had a 5-6" snow/sleet storm and then another advisory event since 1/20....it's definitely better than what happened the first 19 days of the month. Hasn't done much down in PYM...so I get it from that perspective. But it's not the same pattern at all from, say, December 15 through January 10. It's been way colder and there's actually been some snow in SNE even if the big one continues to elude us and the maddening cutters make appearances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 When does Eps bring the backdoor front in? Still 50’s to the slopes ahead of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I had a 5-6" snow/sleet storm and then another advisory event since 1/20....it's definitely better than what happened the first 19 days of the month. Hasn't done much down in PYM...so I get it from that perspective. But it's not the same pattern at all from, say, December 15 through January 10. It's been way colder and there's actually been some snow in SNE even if the big one continues to elude us and the maddening cutters make appearances. The pattern will never change because it won't snow in Plymouth, MA.....there are plenty of stagnant seasons, then. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I already said that. Alaska is much better, though...you leave that out. Yeah my bad, thought you were still using that, read it on the fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I do get what Diane is saying. We still are prone to cutters despite the change. But as everyone said, it’s night and day from mid December and early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah my bad, thought you were still using that, read it on the fly. Yea, not trying to say its a good analog for that EPS comp...it isn't. Just trying to spark discussion since that is an RNA Feb that worked out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I do get what Diane is saying. We still are prone to cutters despite the change. But as everyone said, it’s night and day from mid December and early January. Yes....but I also don't agree that you expect that for the rest of the season just because there have been some false alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 22 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I read what you all post, and then i compare that to what actually occurs...most of you are still sharing optimistic possibilities...but the outcomes havent matched up with your optimistic possibilities, nne is still the only area getting snow...cne is still getting mixed bags, sne is still getting rain, we are still getting cutters mixed with colder outbreaks...i admire the optimism...but...it just keeps on, keeping on... I'm starting to enter this frame of mind on matters, too... but more so for sensing when you don't put money down on 7's at the table. I understand why they are optimistic ... It's at no fault of theirs - there have been legit signals. And, it's cold - can't dispute that there's been cold air around. And, we have surplus precipitation anomalies. It's tough to keep in perspective that this is still a realm inherently drawn out in time by fractals and chaos... I mean, there's no guarantee this stuff will come together in a timely fashion ... We've had an over-abundance of mid and large scale negative interference ...well at all scales. If one understands how "chaos" really works - in physics - it's not just a random free for all like we think of in every day vernacular. Chaos in weather pertains to "emergence" of properties guiding a system - they do not exist now; but might in 10 minutes... 10 days....weeks and so forth. There really is no way to tell how those permutations will engender out of the ether, do to other forces interacting and causing things to propagate favorable in time, or decay summarily do to canceling one another out. Butterflies ... flapping wings in a garden in China "might" ultimately lead to something down wind and time - that's really more closer to what's taking place, rather than the other form of the cliche. So ...this is a lot of words to describe having our ass handed to us on bad luck.. .But, that's unfortunately where we are. This winter is reminding me of the lost continent theory - that there is another continent submerged that's huge but no one knows it's there. Heh. Anyway, plenty of impulses.. .Plenty of moisture... Plenty of cold ... untimely intermingling emerges this reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Diane and John...I'm not dismissing that. I can see how it continues in the absence of much NAO or PNA...that doesn't scream big snow pattern to me. But its not "close shades", either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Diane and John...I'm not dismissing that. I can see how it continues in the absence of much NAO or PNA...that doesn't scream big snow pattern to me. But its not "close shades", either. Dismissing what ...? not sure what you're addressing in deference to me ... I was just being a wise-ass before. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So ...this is a lot of words to describing having our ass handed to us on bad luck.. .But, that's unfortunately where are. Plenty of impulses.. .Plenty of moisture... Plenty of cold ... untimely intermingling emerges this reality. Kevin, pickles, and dendrite just threw their laptops out the window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Dismissing what ...? not sure what you're addressing in deference to me ... I was just being a wise-ass before. haha Sorry but wx doesn’t involve luck. Ask Freud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Maybe we can trend this into something closer to A swfe set up with snow to start for all and maybe ending as ice or drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Cant see with that EPO any thing but positive outcomes. What bothers me is a strong jet over head. Shredded systems . All Winter roaring gimne some iceeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The pattern will never change because it won't snow in Plymouth, MA.....there are plenty of stagnant seasons, then. lol Dont drive Angry! I should try to rephrase- the geographical areas that needed big positive changes to salvage winter, have not had any big positive changes...the pattern is always more optimistic at D11 and beyond...but nothing really comes to fruition...Meteorological Winter is D, J, F...we are now into Feb and some red tags have posted things akin to punting the first 10 days of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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