Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: As you well know, teleconnectors are just the signal. How they play will have a huge impact on any real event that transpires. We can have a -NAO but if its too far East, we can cut. We can pop a PNA ridge as well, but if it's too far west we can cut. Until I see legit optimism in operational runs under 5 days, I'm skeptical of what any charts show. I'm not an optimist. I'm a realist. Salient advice my friend... But, that's why " I " believe the tele convergence method has some additional merit compared to just identifying these alone in their various singular quadratures. The impetus there... the forcing of multiple mass fields exerting from different sources, would hypothetically load the given location with that much more scaling in the total list of variable effecting the locations pattern..etc.. All we are doing is setting table with these teleconnectors... Over the long run, the pattern tends to appease the statistics and vice versa. The statistical inference ... what that really means is just using numerology to describe how mass is conserved. For the lay-person: "When the heights go up here, they have to go down over there" ...can't make it any simpler than that. If one doesn't understand that, I suggest you close your lap top and find another hobby. That's why there is "weather" at all... it's the foment, on-going, at all scales of up and down and balancing that is required in doing so ... that action is the storm.. or sunny day for that matter, depending on where is what relative to whatever is happening at that location and so forth. A -NAO is a height preponderance over the N. Atlantic Basin, usually nodal between the N of Iceland to the eastern archipelago of NE Canada. When height rise there, that is set numerically to a -NAO (at CPC) ... But when height rise there, they are falling outside the NAO's domain to maintain the conservation in the system... Usually, that fall is either over western and northern Europe, or closer to North America... but it can distribute unfairly (haha) and be all over there... or, all over here. Adding in that this is a fluid process at all perpetual times, that's when the real fun begins! So anyway, it is true that these do not forecast partly sunny with a high of 32, followed by snow at night... No, they don't do that. But, they create a favorable(less favorable) for either type of weather. Within which ...THEN we start looking to the guidance for specific events to follow, and pick and choose those that "fit" better with the teleconnector numerology of the time in question. And it will tend to work over the long haul. If the EPO is negative ...over the long haul, eventually Chicago gets cold... Not every time... but > 50 % ... and on and so on... But if the PNA is very positive, and the EPO is very negative ...and the whole N Pacific is in the AA phase,... and the NAO tanks... Chicago is cold like 95 % of those times ..particularly in the winter. That's the idea behind tele-c 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Seems as though the next major threat is about two weeks away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seems as though the next major threat is about two weeks away. Valentine’s Day blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Valentine’s Day blizzard? I don't...just guessing since the first 10 days or so of the month blow dead goats. Sucks tossing 10 days into the wind during peak climo. And I don't care how muted the torch is, or is not....it makes no difference whether its 32 and P Sunny, or 43, if it isn't going to snow either way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't...just guessing since the first 10 days or so of the month blow dead goats. Sucks tossing 10 days into the wind during peak climo. And I don't care how muted the torch is, or is not....I don't care whether its 32 and P Sunny, or 43, if it isn't going to snow either way. Agreed. Ideally, I'd like the warmth to overperform next week with signs that we turn to major snow the following week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 At least it looks like mid-winter. Very deceptive picture since we held onto a good deal of snow after the last cutter this part of the valley only torched for a couple of hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: At least it looks like mid-winter. Very deceptive picture since we held onto a good deal of snow after the last cutter this part of the valley only torched for a couple of hours. Wow! Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: At least it looks like mid-winter. Very deceptive picture since we held onto a good deal of snow after the last cutter this part of the valley only torched for a couple of hours. Nice place! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 We have about a month of winter left....2nd half of Feb and first half of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have about a month of winter left....2nd half of Feb and first half of March. 4 weeks... Even if we manage a 10" snowstorm each of the four weeks, most in SNE (esp. the coast) finish BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have about a month of winter left....2nd half of Feb and first half of March. Ouch. That puts things into perspective a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice place! Thanks! Small and humble (1400 sq/ft) but huge yard and easy to heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Ouch. That puts things into perspective a bit... The death knell to my season totals was when the first half of February went to crap...that's when I waived the white flag on my seasonal totals..I still think we'll have a nice ending, but I could not afford to lose the peak week of climo to a crap pattern and I am. I was convinced we'd see a juggernaut during that stretch, and instead its a rusty coat hanger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 But forget the cold for a moment. In our region, the bigger interest seems to be in this winter’s lack of snow. Any year that has seen this little snow through this point has never ended with a blockbuster snow total at the end of the season. Sorry to say, but that new snowblower you picked up over the holidays is just going to have to sit idle for at least another couple of weeks. https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/01/30/this-cold-will-sting-but-won-last/NuOLzivDnoCEi8Pb1lQyEJ/story.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, kdxken said: But forget the cold for a moment. In our region, the bigger interest seems to be in this winter’s lack of snow. Any year that has seen this little snow through this point has never ended with a blockbuster snow total at the end of the season. Sorry to say, but that new snowblower you picked up over the holidays is just going to have to sit idle for at least another couple of weeks. https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/01/30/this-cold-will-sting-but-won-last/NuOLzivDnoCEi8Pb1lQyEJ/story.html I don't put much weight into those climo stats because they are prone to the same sample size limitations that the rest of the data are. If there was ever a season to do it, this is it. Thanks for the link, Ken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 At this point....just one Major Snowstorm will be satisfying, and that will keep it from being a total Ratter. If we don't get a Major...this will go down as a big time Ratt!! Mother Nature showing all the big outlook calls that we don' knowt as much as we hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: At this point....just one Major Snowstorm will be satisfying, and that will keep it from being a total Ratter. If we don't get a Major...this will go down as a big time Ratt!! Mother Nature showing all the big outlook calls that we don't as much as we hoped. There are always going to be exceptions and outliers....but I'll bet that this would have been a great season 7-8/10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The death knell to my season totals was when the first half of February went to crap...that's when I waived the white flag on my seasonal totals..I still think we'll have a nice ending, but I could not afford to lose the peak week of climo to a crap pattern and I am. I was convinced we'd see a juggernaut during that stretch, and instead its a rusty coat hanger. Do you feel the juggernaut did occur, just displaced further north than one would have hoped? Or did a completely different look manifest than you had envisioned? I know you think the SSW really screwed the pooch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The death knell to my season totals was when the first half of February went to crap...that's when I waived the white flag on my seasonal totals..I still think we'll have a nice ending, but I could not afford to lose the peak week of climo to a crap pattern and I am. I was convinced we'd see a juggernaut during that stretch, and instead its a rusty coat hanger. Ya that’s the gut punch we be punting first 10 days in Feb. Saw this coming couple days ago and was waiting for it to sink in w the board . So mid Feb may rock, or it may be ok, or it may blow , nobody knows at this point really . Costs zero to be optimistic , and it feels good ...but that doesn’t mean it’s right when it comes to weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Do you feel the juggernaut did occur, just displaced further north than one would have hoped? Or did a completely different look manifest than you had envisioned? I know you think the SSW really screwed the pooch... No, I don't think that its occurred. We still aren't there yet. Don't get me wrong....the period is beginning later than I had thought, but we have yet to see a regime rife with potential for historic east coast systems. I mean...there were a couple of opportunities to "steal" one if things broke favorably, but they haven't....this current PV intrusion being one. We should see a period later in Feb and maybe into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya that’s the gut punch we be punting first 10 days in Feb. Saw this coming couple days ago and was waiting for it to sink in w the board . So mid Feb may rock, or it may be ok, or it may blow , nobody knows at this point really . Costs zero to be optimistic , and it feels good ...but that doesn’t mean it’s right when it comes to weather . I think the most prudent course of action is to expect significant snowfall later in February. I really, really don't think that its going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the most prudent course of action is to expect significant snowfall later in February. I really, really don't think that its going to suck. We wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 43 minutes ago, kdxken said: But forget the cold for a moment. In our region, the bigger interest seems to be in this winter’s lack of snow. Any year that has seen this little snow through this point has never ended with a blockbuster snow total at the end of the season. Sorry to say, but that new snowblower you picked up over the holidays is just going to have to sit idle for at least another couple of weeks. Would not say never, unless qualified with "almost." On 2/13/2007 my snow total was 34" BN compared to YTD average. We finished the season at 5" AN - not really a blockbuster but still a major salvage. As for punting 2/1-10, I look back 10 years, when 2/2-15 produced no measurable snowfall here and featured a major thaw - 2 days with temps 20°+ AN and siggy RA. Then 2/19-23 brought 33". Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the most prudent course of action is to expect significant snowfall later in February. I really, really don't think that its going to suck. You're outlook was great....I don't think any pro could put one together any better. I hope you are right about it not sucking....but sometimes things just go wrong/bad/or Suck....I think that's where we are this year in 18-19. It's just the random chaos of misfortune for SNE this year...and that's about it. Nobody can foresee these things, it's just a crapshoot sometimes and sometimes you're/we're on the lousy end of things. It's too early to give up, but I'm expecting it to not get a whole lot better...keeping expectations in check, and if things break right soon, I'll be pleasantly surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the most prudent course of action is to expect significant snowfall later in February. I really, really don't think that its going to suck. I wish I had your optimism. I do have a feeling something will happen as the wave lengths start to change, so that we won't have to rely on an excellent Pacific. It also helps that a strong cold source remains to the north. Until then we torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Spending four nights at Attitash from 2/24-28, so of course CNE/SNE will probably have their biggest snows that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Oh man, the euro is going to have poetic nape prose from Tippy next week. Lots of talk about the smells of the air being different, mating etc. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh man, the euro is going to have poetic nape prose from Tippy next week. Lots of talk about the smells of the air being different, mating etc. How warm we talking? 55-60F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: At this point....just one Major Snowstorm will be satisfying, and that will keep it from being a total Ratter. If we don't get a Major...this will go down as a big time Ratt!! Mother Nature showing all the big outlook calls that we don' knowt as much as we hoped. Yes, come over to the dark side, you know you want to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have about a month of winter left....2nd half of Feb and first half of March. Why are you excluding the first half of Feb (which would mean a month and a half)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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