dendrite Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 That's a thaw and a half. I may have to sneak out and try to make some vitamin D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Although I don't like the d7 bd look. 60F for BDL while it's a grey 35F imby? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Although I don't like the d7 bd look. 60F for BDL while it's a grey 35F imby? I was just gonna say...Tuesday looks mild but it looks like classic BDF for Wednesday...yeah maybe CT sneaks a nape tanner that day but it's pretty dirty overall with the storm approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 No tanning on the GFS...warm rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was just gonna say...Tuesday looks mild but it looks like classic BDF for Wednesday...yeah maybe CT sneaks a nape tanner that day but it's pretty dirty overall with the storm approaching 4 straight days with 850s above 0C though for BTV-LEW-southward. Maybe this will reshuffle the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: No tanning on the GFS...warm rain There's probably at least 1 naper in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 You can envision this warmup turning into our usual spring joke. Everyone gets all excited for days of warmth and it turns into 12 hours of rain and 40’s. Already evolving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Maybe Tippy's classic Warm - Cold - Boom gets used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: There's probably at least 1 naper in there. I envision lots of clouds with some dim sun... buds will become engorged... the chickadees will change their tune.... soon the leaves will turn leathery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You can envision this warmup turning into our usual spring joke. Everyone gets all excited for days of warmth and it turns into 12 hours of rain and 40’s. Already evolving We can warm to 60 after being below 0 24 hrs earlier, but with 850 temps of 10C we'll struggle with a backdoor. Classic. Still think we get a naper in at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Why are you excluding the first half of Feb (which would mean a month and a half)? It looks hostile until around the 10th, at least, so we are basically 1/2 way thru February before was see a turn to wintry potential in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: We can warm to 60 after being below 0 24 hrs earlier, but with 850 temps of 10C we'll struggle with a backdoor. Classic. Still think we get a naper in at some point. Yeah I think there’ll be one day of 50+. Probably Tuesday, but that’s a lot of cold lurking up there . It sure ain’t gonna be a 4-5 day torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Why are you excluding the first half of Feb (which would mean a month and a half)? Bc there are no valid major threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: 4 straight days with 850s above 0C though for BTV-LEW-southward. Maybe this will reshuffle the deck. Another -20C 850 airmass behind the cutters. 1980s pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Another -20C 850 airmass behind the cutters. 1980s pattern. Celtics-Lakers finals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Another -20C 850 airmass behind the cutters. 1980s pattern. Looking great on the OP at day 10 for subsequent days after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Celtics-Lakers finals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: 4 straight days with 850s above 0C though for BTV-LEW-southward. Maybe this will reshuffle the deck. No reshuffling needed! Keep it going because we are going for the all-time snow depth record from 68-69. I know Ray really wants us to break it this spring, probably a bunch of other posters too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You're outlook was great....I don't think any pro could put one together any better. I hope you are right about it not sucking....but sometimes things just go wrong/bad/or Suck....I think that's where we are this year in 18-19. It's just the random chaos of misfortune for SNE this year...and that's about it. Nobody can foresee these things, it's just a crapshoot sometimes and sometimes you're/we're on the lousy end of things. It's too early to give up, but I'm expecting it to not get a whole lot better...keeping expectations in check, and if things break right soon, I'll be pleasantly surprised. So far, its a well articulated, educationally exhaustive exercise in futility. Most outlooks have been better because they have been more correct, at least as it relates to snowfall. 43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I wish I had your optimism. I do have a feeling something will happen as the wave lengths start to change, so that we won't have to rely on an excellent Pacific. It also helps that a strong cold source remains to the north. Until then we torch. Its not optimism. The data supports it. If it looked like $hit, then I'd call for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: No reshuffling needed! Keep it going because we are going for the all-time snow depth record from 68-69. I know Ray really wants us to break it this spring, probably a bunch of other posters too. The 1968-1969 analog is the one salvageable piece for me so far...I wish I had had balls enough to adhere to it more exclusively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: So far, its a well articulated, educationally exhaustive exercise in futility. Most outlooks have been better because they have been more correct, at least as it relates to snowfall. Its not optimism. The data supports it. If it looked like $hit, then I'd call for that. How have your temps panned out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, mreaves said: How have your temps panned out? Temps were great for DEC....I was a bit too warm in January it looks like. I predicted a mean pos NAO for Jan, too....so not a huge hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 February has ability to put up a fat positive number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The 1968-1969 analog is the one salvageable piece for me so far...I wish I had had balls enough to adhere to it more exclusively. Yeah I've seen that year constantly this season when tracking the mountain snow against historical data. It's certainly the best match to date. Even that year had a bit of a melt/thaw soon but it came back strong again for Feb/Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Prefer this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Euro has a little stat padder this weekend before the thaw. Then the Euro ends the thaw with accumulating snows up this way. At this point I expect nothing less, don't think I've ever felt this type of confidence in winter ha. Just give up and expect it to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah I've seen that year constantly this season when tracking the mountain snow against historical data. It's certainly the best match to date. Even that year had a bit of a melt/thaw soon but it came back strong again for Feb/Mar. It was my favorite analog...expected less RNA and less NAO version, but picked 1978 because 1969 was so extreme RNA and NAO. I should have just went with it anyway, and specified its limitations. I was talking all fall about how the MEI was meager just like 1969, so it makes sense that nino has been late and null. Not sure if that season came off of a nina, as well, but this one did....so there you go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was my favorite analog...expected less RNA and less NAO version, but picked 1978 because 1969 was so extreme RNA and NAO. I should have just went with it anyway, and specified its limitations. I was talking all fall about how the MEI was meager just like 1969, so it makes sense that nino has been late and null. Not sure if that season came off of a nina, as well, but this one did....so there you go. How was 1968-69 in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I expect Tip will be getting nostalgic next week seeing the bees bustling about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: How was 1968-69 in SNE? Pathetic D, J and M. Epic Feb...two KUs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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