psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: WAR keeps expanding W and subsequently blocking the PV farther W on the gfs The WAR isn’t a cause it’s an effect. Or at most it’s an interrelated piece of the long wave puzzle. The war isn’t causing this to happen. The war is happening because the forcing in the pacific is not favorable to propagate the epo pna ridge eastward into the conus for us. For some reason guidance keeps totally Fng that up at range only to adjust west every time. And so we see each threat adjust west as the whole ridge trough axis shifts west. The causality is the ridge in the pacific is centered off the west coast. That is due to unfavorable forcing near the Maritime Continent. We need the forcing east of there into the western and central pac to drive that ridge into the western US. and that will force the trough into the east and push the war east. You’re right the war there is a problem but you’re looking at the causality backwards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Hybrid then? It pops a low off the jersey coast before slamming it into interior north east. If you look at the MSLP panels it shows an area of elongated LP overhead and to the south of us. As the trough goes negative the LP gains strength to our north. It's all one cohesive (and complicated) piece rotating around. CMC is relatively similar to what the Euro is doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 LR looks like Pacific is gonna crash the cold for sure! (GFS) - Not too excited at this point based on that model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 GFS and GGEM both have some upper-level induced snow in the OH Valley next Wednesday that looks like it tries to create a weak surface low in VA as it moves east. GFS throws out a few snow showers with it, GGEM keeps all the moisture west of the Apps. Another thing worth watching. That would be very dependent on the precise track and strength of vorticity pieces that are rotating around the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The WAR isn’t a cause it’s an effect......... Where is the "Maritime Continent"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, wkd said: Where is the "Maritime Continent"? Indonesia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Probably nothing here... but 12z UKMET has a SLP over NO at 96 and then over BOS at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: LR looks like Pacific is gonna crash the cold for sure! (GFS) - Not too excited at this point based on that model! It’s been trying to do that often the last week but has continually pushed it back or even lost it for many run cycles on the Op and most ensembles. The GFS is likely mishandling the MJO which could be a cause for why it’s continually trying to break the pattern down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Indonesia Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z FV3 looks decent Tues/Tues night from what I can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z UKMET has a 0.3-0.4 marker over N VA/DC at 114 as 6 hr precip total... waiting to see if that's just rain or if it has some snow in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like most guidance lost the big signal for next weekend now. That decelerated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 fairly chaotic looking 12z gfs run. hard to tell exactly what kind of pattern we're heading into. i'm seeing a lot of frontal passages which isn't very inspiring for significant storm threats, but there's also some waves that could trend in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like most guidance lost the big signal for next weekend now. That decelerated quickly. For now it's a suppressed/squashed wave. Practically every time there has been suppression since mid Dec in the mid range it has backed off as leads shorten. Might be a good thing that guidance is showing a squash job down the line. Much will hinge on the TPV progression which is anything but figured out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKMET has a 0.3-0.4 marker over N VA/DC at 114 as 6 hr precip total... waiting to see if that's just rain or if it has some snow in it Snow map has 1-2" for Loudoun/FFX/PW/Charles... everyone else around an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 50 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: LR looks like Pacific is gonna crash the cold for sure! (GFS) - Not too excited at this point based on that model! There is nothing "for sure" outside 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gefs stills has some interest in the Day 7 deal. Some very nice solutions in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gefs stills has some interest in the Day 7 deal. Some very nice solutions in the mix. might have to get the blue bowling ball here first before we know what next weekend will look like. as-is, trough looks too far east and has a miller B look, but i could also see where that could trend better as we go, at least for the eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: might have to get the blue bowling ball here first before we know what next weekend will look like. as-is, trough looks too far east and has a miller B look, but i could also see where that could trend better as we go, at least for the eastern sections. Definitely. It basically shows shotgun solutions and will all depend on timing. Which we are so good at lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Nothing wrong with FV3 for next Tuesday! I’m riding it until Dr No comes along. Eta: Euro a step in the right direction? Or am I crazy. Don’t answer that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro looks good for T/W. SV has 2-4" for most of us with 4-6" for the western burbs. eta: 10:1 ratio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, Scraff said: Nothing wrong with FV3 for next Tuesday! I’m riding it until Dr No comes along. Eta: Euro a step in the right direction? Or am I crazy. Don’t answer that. Only to hr 84 but the setup does look improved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro should be a good hit looking at 96.. waiting for 108-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 More progressive GLs low is getting the cold in quicker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like the cold is in before any precip, all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Love the euro but such a razors edge setup. If we can get inside of 72 hours and get some basic consensus it will start getting real. Nice run though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 994 mb low sitting over the northern eastern shore at 114 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Looks like the cold is in before any precip, all snow. Really close though... 114 has 2mTs of 40s along i95 with freezing line back along or just west of i81... at 120 everyone is between 15-25 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro have anything Thursday with that piece of vorticity rotating through? Looks like a similar surface reflection in VA like the GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts