yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 We also know that GGEM can't be right for Tues/Wed since it drives the SLP into SNE and rains up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Because originally, Monday looked like an opportunity for a big storm. Then it disappeared to nothing and now the last few runs it's made like a 300mile shift back east and organized into a coastal again... I gotcha. Yeah, it was close...but I can't imagine we can stretch it to a 600 mile shift? But that's okay...more curious about potential next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Is the GFS depicting the kind of snow that would actually accumulate? Or snow tv? As long as the cold air comes in with the flip it would accumulate easily. That level of detail really can't be figured out until we're 2-3 days out. Just seeing the gfs on board is good. We'll see a lot of different looks next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: If ya don't think it'll affect us...what was your reason for sharing it? Lol Just for the overall trends, or? There is a growing probability that this feature could effect NC and SE Virgina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Mega front 20F drop in one hour should change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 0z Euro is super interesting for next tue/wed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Tue/Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Deck Pic said: lol Any storm around that period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Any storm around that period? There is some snow with the front (1-2" concentrated south and east burbs of DC metro) but otherwise dry after the FROPA through 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: There is a growing probability that this feature could effect NC and SE Virgina. 24 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Tue/Wed Wish you guys would give an image that displayed all of the MA. I have asked this year after year. RIC is in this forum! PLEASE and THANK YOU! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 0z Euro is super interesting for next tue/wed We lost 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Yep this looks about right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Yep this looks about right What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: 0z Euro is super interesting for next tue/wed We lost 8 inches I just knew you would have something to say about the Euro after it took away your play snow. Just started glancing at it but it seems that the overnight Euro made a positive move towards something possibly bigger. We are seeing the Euro moving more towards the idea of a secondary low forming to our south and pulling through the region. Not only that but it seems as if the Euro may be starting to see some left over energy off the coast from the departing coastal low. The lower snowfall may be nothing more then the Euro being caught in between different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yep this looks about right Why I'm sitting in bed cracking up at this at almost 4 am I have no idea, lolol Your response was perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 We saw a positive move from the overnight Euro/Eps to possibly something more then just post frontal snows. Below we have yesterdays 12z op run. Notice that we see the low pressures consolidated to our north and west towards the lakes. Now compare the overnight op run. We have a distinct low in the lakes with a secondary forming in Georgia/S Carolina separate from the GL low. Of interest as well, we are seeing some hints of possible low pressure development off of OBX from energy left over from the previous SE coastal as evidenced by the kinking of the isobars through that region. This is the overnight run 6 hours later. We are now seeing better low pressure placement/evolution vs. the previous run as we are seeing better separation from the GL's low where it isn't running as much interference. Yesterday's EPS run featured consolidated low pressures to our west as the GL low was running interference. Now compare the overnight run. WE now have 2 distinct areas of low pressure. One in the lakes and one to or south. Much better setup if you hope to score more then just post frontal snow. Have a feeling that the Euro is moving away from the post frontal/ana front snows and more towards a distinct area of low pressure running up from the south. This solution, if it is in fact what we are seeing, has much better upside. eta: We also saw a roughly 1/2" increase over the snowfall means through the DC/Balt corridor. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice post Showme . I only had limited time to look over Eps quickly this am. Thanks for the breakdown. Yea..that cluster to the south is real nice to see . I agree it's still evolving Unfortunately the GFS/GEFS isn't really buying into the possibility as of yet. Ana front low at best. Can still score something with the frontal passage if we can get the lift at 850 and 700s setup similar to what I showed yesterday but that just doesn't have the upside of a distinct southern low pulling up. And counting on post frontal snows of any significance (1-2, 2-4) is pretty much a crap shoot as we are depending on the lift to set up just right. And this is evidenced by how often we fail in post frontal snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 hours ago, Deck Pic said: lol I hope this cold hangs around for a bit. It sucks to see big cold.like this become dislodged in 48 hours and then we rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Also....with this type of setup I think a low even taking a coastal hugger track looks to still be mostly a snow event for west of 95 which is nice. Problem with a southern low pulling up is we need to see that frontal passage run through the region before hand and that will be dependent on the GL's low and its progression eastward. Otherwise we are looking at the low running through the region, if not to our west, as it tracks up the boundary. Pretty much in wait and see mode because it is a somewhat complicated setup and I expect we will see some changes over the next few days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Problem with a southern low pulling up is we need to see that frontal passage run through the region before hand and that will be dependent on the GL's low and its progression eastward. Otherwise we are looking at the low running through the region, if not to our west, as it tracks up the boundary. Pretty much in wait and see mode because it is a somewhat complicated setup and I expect we will see some changes over the next few days of runs. Am I reading the icon correctly in that the war is slowing the progression of the front and hanging it up or not allowing it pass thru or is is another factor that stalls ir back in central PA while a coastal low gets squeezed between the boundary and the war? That is yet another interesting solution no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Am I reading the icon correctly in that the war is slowing the progression of the front and hanging it up or not allowing it pass thru or is is another factor that stalls ir back in central PA while a coastal low gets squeezed between the boundary and the war? That is yet another interesting solution no? Think you can look at it in the sense of which came first, the chicken or the egg. I have mentioned several times that I would like to see the initial pv drop farther to the east into the western lakes as it sets us up in a much better position and this shows why. The Icon is dropping it farther west into Minnesota. So is the WAR forcing a farther west pv drop? Or is the farther west pv drop allowing WAR to build farther west? All I know is if we were to see that pv drop a hundred or so miles farther east chances are good we would be looking at a coastal racking the region. That is how close the ICON is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6z GEFS took a small step towards the coastal or second low look for Tuesday-Wednesday. Happens just a hair too late but obviously there r members that are blended which see this as a potential scenario now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Fv3 has the 2nd low and looks like the GEFS....develops it late verbatim off of N NJ Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Good morning! Happy Friday. So today we root for the coastal to trend? That whole frontal snow thing seemed weird to me anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Liked what I saw on the overnight EPS in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Think they may possibly be signalling a more significant event. *** Ji, this is not a prediction. I am just discussing what I am seeing on the maps.*** This is yesterdays 12Z run at 500s. Pay attention to the trough extending downward from the pv and how far it is dropping. Now this is the overnight run. We are seeing a much deeper drop with this trough. This deeper drop actually is more conducive to get southern stream energy involved. 200mbs also has a stronger signal for a possible storm as evidenced by the jet. This is yesterdays run. Notice that the jet streak is washed out. Now compare the overnight run. Notice the jet is coming in much stronger and in finer detail then the previous run. The configuration of the jet would suggest a low pushing up somewhere on the eastern seaboard. Of note as well is the region I have circled in the NE. This is the front left exit portion of the jet which is a favorable location for seeing snow. This has pulled through our region which would be suggestive that we have seen/are seeing snow. All in all the over night EPS was a good step towards seeing something of consequence around the 30th. Whether we see continued improvements is anyone's guess at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea..I definitely get that . I looked close at the stronger lows tucked in on a few members and they still snow on us west of 95 . With the pv so close I'd think dynamically once a low wraps up ...real cold air would wrap in very quickly . I'm looking forward to tracking this weekend Agreed. IF the Euro is onto something, there would be some boom potential w/ the pv dropping in. Nice to see those maps (and @showmethesnow back in "action"). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Good morning! Happy Friday. So today we root for the coastal to trend? That whole frontal snow thing seemed weird to me anyway. and verifcation scores of modeled frontal snows for all of us..........well they just suck. Time to hug the Euro (I'd take the CMC as well). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Agreed. IF the Euro is onto something, there would be some boom potential w/ the pv dropping in. Nice to see those maps (and @showmethesnow back in "action"). What can I say. I ran out of money in Vegas so I had to come back. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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