Yeoman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Since we're throwing around weenie fantasy maps I figured I should post the biggest storm on the EPS. This one literally buries 95 and east with what looks like 30+" of snow. A 968 tucked like that with arctic air sprawled banana style all over the top of it would be a true blizzard of the likes that I've only seen in the Rockies. This has to be a front runner for the weeniest storm ever inside of 10 days. Maybe I'm missing one but a sub 970 tucked like that is mind boggling... lol ETA: it's like 40"+ and that doesn't even take ratios into consideration. LOLMaybe not an OP map but I’d have to think a random ensemble member has done it at some point, probably as late as May if it was the GEFS. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 27 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Maybe I should tune up the toy for this one. Not sure but based on the 18z GFS through 240 the answer is decidedly no. Not one flake of snow that I could see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Models in winter do only two things well-cutters and cold outbreaks. Any other form of low pressure they are cluless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just so i don't have to read through pages of 18z gfs took away my snow posts... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Since we're throwing around weenie fantasy maps I figured I should post the biggest storm on the EPS. This one literally buries 95 and east with what looks like 30+" of snow. A 968 tucked like that with arctic air sprawled banana style all over the top of it would be a true blizzard of the likes that I've only seen in the Rockies. This has to be a front runner for the weeniest storm ever inside of 10 days. Maybe I'm missing one but a sub 970 tucked like that is mind boggling... lol ETA: it's like 40"+ and that doesn't even take ratios into consideration. LOL Ooooooh you did it now. Just saw this same image posted on social media hyping the "Welcome to an Epic February Blizzard". Lol knew it was just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Ahh the inevitable dissecting of day 9 op run maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Let’s bask in the glory of the Euro control because the GFS is a dumpster fire. EDIT: But redeems itself in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ooooooh you did it now. Just saw this same image posted on social media hyping the "Welcome to an Epic February Blizzard". Lol knew it was just a matter of time. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Where? FB of course.....the only real go-to weather source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not sure but based on the 18z GFS through 240 the answer is decidedly no. Not one flake of snow that I could see. Tbh, based on seasonal trends the 18z GFS is portraying an equally anomalous situation. .3 of QPF through 210 hours. I would put a lot of money on that not verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not sure but based on the 18z GFS through 240 the answer is decidedly no. Not one flake of snow that I could see. GFS certainly looks wintry from 240 to the end of the Run. I know it's just 1 op but it seems we are maybe starting to turn the corner somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Let’s bask in the glory of the Euro control because the GFS is a dumpster fire. GFS is getting retired. Go with the fV3....its right where we want it at this point. There are going to be some monster solutions over the next several days to given the setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: GFS certainly looks wintry from 240 to the end of the Run. I know it's just 1 op but it seems we are maybe starting to turn the corner somewhat. This may turn into a Tom brady type of winter with a final 2 minute drive to glory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Let’s bask in the glory of the Euro control because the GFS is a dumpster fire. EDIT: But redeems itself in the end. Once you play this game long enough... like me wasting 13 years of my winter life scrolling through wx models... you come to realize that you actually want the gfs to show the opposite of what you want then apply the wrong bias and extrapolate from there. 18z gfs just said get your shovel ready next week. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Once you play this game long enough... like me wasting 13 years of my winter life scrolling through wx models... you come to realize that you actually want the gfs to show the opposite of what you want then apply the wrong bias and extrapolate from there. 18z gfs just said get your shovel ready next week. Ha. Well hopefully it’s right about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Ha. Well hopefully it’s right about this. Every day that goes by makes me more confident that we are headed towards an even better version of that panel. Might not be inside of 2 weeks. Hard to say but recent trends at reasonable leads are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gefs disagrees with the op's dry fropa 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Big ole face over N America. Two purple eyes blue nose and GOM mouth. Almost looks like.........the reaper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Models in winter do only two things well-cutters and cold outbreaks. Any other form of low pressure they are cluless I was going to say the same thing. Just uncanny how deadly accurate they are, especially when it comes to heavy rain events. If the mets are predicting a deluge 3-5 days out, believe it. Snowstorms? The models and hence, the mets are basically helpless. Until it's right on your doorstep, they'll waver, dance, deny, admit, and ultimately, make fools out of themselves. It just comes with the territory with little to no accountability. I always read the NOAA's forecast discussion page for my area and while it's fairly technical, if they're mentioning the dreaded PWAT's within a storm, get ready to be inundated with more heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 33 minutes ago, Danajames said: I was going to say the same thing. Just uncanny how deadly accurate they are, especially when it comes to heavy rain events. If the mets are predicting a deluge 3-5 days out, believe it. Snowstorms? The models and hence, the mets are basically helpless. Until it's right on your doorstep, they'll waver, dance, deny, admit, and ultimately, make fools out of themselves. It just comes with the territory with little to no accountability. I always read the NOAA's forecast discussion page for my area and while it's fairly technical, if they're mentioning the dreaded PWAT's within a storm, get ready to be inundated with more heavy rain. This isn’t true at all. It just seems like it because you don’t DGAF about rain but care very much about snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 37 minutes ago, Danajames said: I was going to say the same thing. Just uncanny how deadly accurate they are, especially when it comes to heavy rain events. If the mets are predicting a deluge 3-5 days out, believe it. Snowstorms? The models and hence, the mets are basically helpless. Until it's right on your doorstep, they'll waver, dance, deny, admit, and ultimately, make fools out of themselves. It just comes with the territory with little to no accountability. I always read the NOAA's forecast discussion page for my area and while it's fairly technical, if they're mentioning the dreaded PWAT's within a storm, get ready to be inundated with more heavy rain. I think that is because we need good tracks for snowstorms. Cutters can just be wherever. If a cutter is 200 miles off from where it was originally forecast to be, no one notices or cares. The margin of error is far less for snowstorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Mdecoy said: I think that is because we need good tracks for snowstorms. Cutters can just be wherever. If a cutter is 200 miles off from where it was originally forecast to be, no one notices or cares. And also the temps, probably 90% or more of the year we above freezing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: This isn’t true at all. It just seems like it because you don’t DGAF about rain but care very much about snow. On the contrary, I care deeply about all this heavy rain as I've had a literal flood plain in my back yard since last Spring. It's becoming pure dread whenever I see another 1-2 inches of rain heading my way. And all the people who have had flooded basements over the past year care too. I love a good old fashioned snow storm like most of us on here but if you give me a choice at this point, I'll gladly take dry and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This isn’t true at all. It just seems like it because you don’t DGAF about rain but care very much about snow. Exactly. Rain events move around just as much as snow events. Ask the people in the midwest how much digital snow gets stolen by the models leading in. With a nw track storm we will still get rain when the low center moves around 100s of miles while Chicago or Indianapolis weenies are screaming bloody murder. Also, nobody talks about how much rain is coming 3 or 4 or 5 days out. Since snow is high impact, nws and the media try really hard to predict how much snow will fall outside the range of good skill. With rain, we can get .25 or 1.25 and the forecast still looks good because it rained. That type of variability with snow makes a huge difference with ground truth and impact. Comparing the 2 types of precip is flawed logic. I think everyone should click the previous run button a dozen times on TT when a rainstorm is on the doorstep. Qpf and low position/track is every bit as jumpy as with snow events. With many large systems the precip field is usually huge but the snow swath is magnitudes smaller than the entire precip field. I strongly disagree with the OP's post as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: Not sure but based on the 18z GFS through 240 the answer is decidedly no. Not one flake of snow that I could see. The snow gods have you right where they want you. Besides, it's the18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I'd say the gefs strongly disagrees with the op for next week. All but 2 drop some snow. Majority are 2" or more. Hopefully if we do get some snow next week it's falling in an arctic airmass. PSU made a good point earlier about ratios. If we get sw flow precip it will be juicy and ratios will almost surely be better than 10:1. I'm also encouraged by the number of members that have 2-3 events over the next 15 days. If trends keep up, meteograms like this might be full of purples and pinks. Ji's favorite colors. He doesn't consider blues a storm at all. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 EPS snow mean looks better at 18z compared to 12z for the Tuesday/wed deal. Edit: to be specific the 24 hour snow map centered at 144 hours is 2-4 for the whole area as opposed to 12z when there was a stripe of 1-2 over dc and immediate area. Also the 4-6 line bumped south closer to the PA/MD border. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 OMG. What the F is going on here? Sounds exciting! Did @Snowstorm5921 try to breach the digital wall!? Stupid slats design. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: OMG. What the F is going on here? Sounds exciting! Did @Snowstorm5921 try to breach the digital wall!? Stupid slats design. We’ve switched out of disaster mode and into HECS mode. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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