Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 My concern is not the lower atmosphere its the upper. If we go +8 , gonna get fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: For peak winter climo when you sometimes see 1050+ highs, 1037 is rather tame. It would also help if it were located further SW. No wonder models are trending NW. Add a little phasing to the system and ouch. 1050+ highs in this neck of the woods are exceedingly rare. Maybe crossing the border in ND, but not often around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey @Zeus Hopefully his next graphic will illustrate the classic "Scooter sh*t streak". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: 1050+ highs in this neck of the woods are exceedingly rare. Maybe crossing the border in ND, but not often around here. He made one of the more uneducated posts I have seen in a while and thats saying something , dismissal of 1040 high lol geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Admittedly, I'm going to be disappointed if I ping during this. Might not get the 18" GYX is calling for, but pinging would be a bigger let down. Still expecting arctic high to do its thing. Even staying all-snow here, I'm having a tough time seeing us matching 16-18" forecast from GYX. I'm comfortable with my 12-18" call for my town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: 1050+ highs in this neck of the woods are exceedingly rare. Maybe crossing the border in ND, but not often around here. Still a bit ignorant of NE climatology, but I bet we'd be talking about the possibility of diamond dust as far south as Boston if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Predict a 50/50 chance the Euro comes in perfect for snow ... how's that for clearing things up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, WxBlue said: Still a bit ignorant of NE climatology, but I bet we'd be talking about the possibility of diamond dust as far south as Boston if that's the case. Oh almost certainly. We had that a few times in Feb '15 I believe, and I remember seeing it in Jan '04 up in VT during the insane cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Unfortunately what is good for the Goose is not for the Gander. I was starting to get worried about the cutting of qpf up here and being too far north. With the northward shift of the models comes better qpf chances but introduces warm air down south. I think the CAD will overperform in SNE at the surface so I'd push those GFS 2m temps further southward than what is shown but the midlevel warmth (taken that one run) would introduce more sleet or freezing rain. If you get extreme fronto in that air mass you can enjoy 20 inches. Worrying about QPF is something I wish I was doing right now, minimum foot for you. Great spot in this one Gene, your and Brians Jeff area has been my jackpot area for a week straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 so all METS tell me this is a classic artic high others disagree.. hmm. who to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Predict a 50/50 chance the Euro comes in perfect for snow ... how's that for clearing things up... Haha....I'm guessing it will tick north because all the other globals did and the forum will become temporarily unreadable with people talking about rainstorms inland....esp when it tries to push 40F into Kevin's fanny. Then 00z will start the "messenger shuffle" and everyone will act surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: 1050+ highs in this neck of the woods are exceedingly rare. Maybe crossing the border in ND, but not often around here. Well the bigger issue is the storm track itself. A 1030s high would be fine for a Miller A/B. And of course it'll work out okay for CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Admittedly, I'm going to be disappointed if I ping during this. Might not get the 18" GYX is calling for, but pinging would be a bigger let down. Still expecting arctic high to do its thing. I'm prepared to be disappointed. Wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Well the bigger issue is the storm track itself. A 1030s high would be fine for a Miller A/B. And of course it'll work out just fine for CNE. If you're looking for an all snow event sure, but surface cold is going to be pretty tenacious. Ice ice baby, at least here in the CTRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Even staying all-snow here, I'm having a tough time seeing us matching 16-18" forecast from GYX. I'm comfortable with my 12-18" call for my town. GYX tends to over predict, especially in Southern NH. I live in Northern MA and the general discrepancy between BOX and GYX (even though I am walking distance from the NH boarder) can be about 2-4 inches. I'd say you would be safe with your call, but probably toward the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Oh almost certainly. We had that a few times in Feb '15 I believe, and I remember seeing it in Jan '04 up in VT during the insane cold outbreak. Yep. To me, anything above 1030 mb is a strong high pressure. 1050+ mb is pretty rare anywhere in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ice is the worst form of precipitation for man or beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: so all METS tell me this is a classic artic high others disagree.. hmm. who to believe? It’s not going to happen, esp inland. I hope to sit back and laugh at the 50s like Ursula from The Little Mermaid as I look out at a snowy landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: If you're looking for an all snow event sure, but surface cold is going to be pretty tenacious. Ice ice baby, at least here in the CTRV. Good luck and if for some reason it doesn't work out, the pattern a week from now looks loaded with potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Haha....I'm guessing it will tick north because all the other globals did and the forum will become temporarily unreadable with people talking about rainstorms inland....esp when it tries to push 40F into Kevin's fanny. Then 00z will start the "messenger shuffle" and everyone will act surprised. I mean... really dude... I'm reading posts and it's insufferable in here. Some posting content literally are inventions of neggie reasons to support a "miserability" - flat out making shit up to support a bitch session. This is why I roll my eyes and get p'ode and comment about group neurosis in here... I'm kidding when I do by the way... BUT, you gotta admit ...jesus people. 'Sides, I realize folks just probably want snow only ? or I'm guessing... but, out here in reality: winter has a pallet of fascinating sensible weather. ... Treading with subjectivity, granted, but a mix thump is interesting if people allow it. For some it's snow... For others, they just grouse if the models don't show a text book dystopian cryo-bomb sitting in the NY Bite - .... oh well... keep the dream alive I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, wxextreme said: GYX tends to over predict, especially in Southern NH. I live in Northern MA and the general discrepancy between BOX and GYX (even though I am walking distance from the NH boarder) can be about 2-4 inches. I'd say you would be safe with your call, but probably toward the lower end. I agree on the discrepancy issue. GYX over predicts snow for southern NH especially in the area along the Merrimack Valley area in NE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not going to happen, esp inland. I hope to sit back and laugh at the 50s like Ursula from The Little Mermaid as I look out at a snowy landscape. you've been watching lots of kid movies based on your recent references Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Good luck and if for some reason it doesn't work out, the pattern a week from now looks loaded with potential. We're in agreement there. Weeklies look mighty fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We've reached the pre-storm minutiae and debbie stage. This thing has flags but the boundary layer isn't one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Going to go against Will on this one lol with something I never do predict what a model will do. Euro trends colder all levels. Probably be wrong but my big gut is saying time for the Euro to step up. Speaking of gut we need an @weathafellamassive dump to kick this into high gear. Enjoy the snow ice and sleet kids no matter what you get, better than the bare ground I am looking at right now (lots of dust in the air today too) oh yea let's not forget full moon goon. Another to add to the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Yep. To me, anything above 1030 mb is a strong high pressure. 1050+ mb is pretty rare anywhere in the country. We seem to pull 1040 at least once or twice every winter. I think I've had 1046 or so over the last 20 yrs, but never 1050. That's usually a rare MT/ND/MN deal as the highs slide down east of the Canadian rockies from Mayo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: We seem to pull 1040 at least once or twice every winter. I think I've had 1046 or so over the last 20 yrs, but never 1050. That's usually a rare MT/ND/MN deal as the highs slide down east of the Canadian rockies from Mayo. Exactly. I never heard of 1050+ outside MT/ND/MN. Heck, getting 1050+ in that area would generate some press and chatter on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Going to go against Will on this one lol with something I never do predict what a model will do. Euro trends colder all levels. Probably be wrong but my big gut is saying time for the Euro to step up. Speaking of gut we need an @weathafellamassive dump to kick this into high gear. Enjoy the snow ice and sleet kids no matter what you get, better than the bare ground I am looking at right now (lots of dust in the air today too) oh yea let's not forget full moon goon. Another to add to the list AND it's a super moon; AND it's a full eclipse. Lot's of twists and turns ahead, and likelihood for memorable mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Burbank leaning warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have to agree but think sleet because of the Banana, if it wasn't there it would be our typical SWFE 3 inches to rain I do think sleet because of it... more specifically, I think snow to sleet to at least some freezing rain for a spell that soaks into some snow and sleet and creates a nightmarish cement everywhere in my area once the temps plummet... and I think I'd rather plain rain at 45º F that washes away 3" of thump snow. The GFS is cordially invited to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.