Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 47 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Can we just stop posting those dumb TT snow maps that say "includes sleet" in accumulations. Use some other site like Pivotal. Mr TT himself tweeted that the much better maps are those that say depth increase, takes into account sleet and ratios derived from soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its running into confluence once it gets up here so it has to go ENE. Slash the totals? More sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Day 7 of about exactly the same conversation that's been hashed out for a week about the low levels, lol. People are still suckers for the models despite one of their biggest weaknesses being handling strong CAD with an arctic airmass in place. Doesn't seem to matter how many times the discussion happens, there's always posts that defer to the authority of the model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Sorry meant Bingo Brian regarding low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: People are still suckers for the models despite one of their biggest weaknesses being handling strong CAD with an arctic airmass in place. Doesn't seem to matter how many times the discussion happens, there's always posts that defer to the authority of the model output. MOS/ Model Munchers is the term we used in college to describe these people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hey @Zeus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Para GFS looks like it could be northwest of GFS. I'm starting to be concerned for CNE, NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxBlue said: 1037 mb high pressure screams "I'M A CLASSIC ARCTIC HIGH" to me. It's laying down the cold air at all levels ahead of the storm. I don't think people understood what I was getting at. I was getting at the description of what the GFS shows. Not the meterology just the GFS solution. That's all I was talking about and disecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxBlue said: 1037 mb high pressure screams "I'M A CLASSIC ARCTIC HIGH" to me. It's laying down the cold air at all levels ahead of the storm. That's a rather weak arctic high for the heart of winter. You'd want it to be 1040+ minimum. No wonder the cold breaks down so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: That's a rather weak arctic high for the heart of winter. You'd want it to be 1040+ minimum. 1037 is not weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Mr TT himself tweeted that the much better maps are those that say depth increase, takes into account sleet and ratios derived from soundings Todays comparatively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Hey @Zeus Oh, I done been knew bout this. I've been restrained; usually I salivate all over a banana like that when I see one, but I've been coy with this one. Honestly, Sunday just kinda ~feels~ like an ugly mess for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ukie is def northwest of 00z...it is matching the trend of the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: People are still suckers for the models despite one of their biggest weaknesses being handling strong CAD with an arctic airmass in place. Doesn't seem to matter how many times the discussion happens, there's always posts that defer to the authority of the model output. I understand newbies wouldn't know about this right off the bat, but veteran posters should've learn by now about that weakness. There were several CAD-linked events in which surface temperatures were off by as much as 10-15 degrees. Likely the case again here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a rather weak arctic high for the heart of winter. You'd want it to be 1040+ minimum. No wonder the cold breaks down so quickly. Um dude now you are just trying way way too hard. You are over your head right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxBlue said: 1037 mb high pressure screams "I'M A CLASSIC ARCTIC HIGH" to me. It's laying down the cold air at all levels ahead of the storm. The position and strength do look classic. But - maybe this is a complete misinterpretation on my part - the isobars around the high do not look classic. They aren't curved. It looks like just a fast, flat flow of Arctic air, which may explain why many of the models are forcing the system so far north, as the high is not really pressing south. If anything, it's giving up a little ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 56 minutes ago, Greg said: The problem is it's a very fleeting Artic air mass. Not classic or favorable where it's strong and keeps the storm from turning due northeast instead of keeping it on a east/northeasterly track instead. You're saying precisely the opposite of what is indicated from all available guidance... I suspect you're focused on the storm positioning/attributes in making this assessment, which probably are in error ...least that's the logical recourse to figure out what would motivate this statement of yours, when there is 0 indication of that within available guidance spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, WxBlue said: I understand newbies wouldn't know about this right off the bat, but veteran posters should've learn by now about that weakness. There were several CAD-linked events in which surface temperatures were off by as much as 10-15 degrees. Likely the case again here. GFS might be off by 20F in this case in at least a few spots. It will be fun going back and looking at the solutions when we get to Sunday morning and examine the surface plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 1037 is not weak. And it goes up to 1039-1040 mb over upper Quebec during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey @Zeus It looks like a bird as well as a banana. As long as it brings snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1037 is not weak. For peak winter climo when you sometimes see 1050+ highs, 1037 is rather tame. It would also help if it were located further SW. No wonder models are trending NW. Add a little phasing to the system and ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Zeus said: Oh, I done been knew bout this. I've been restrained; usually I salivate all over a banana like that when I see one, but I've been coy with this one. Honestly, Sunday just kinda ~feels~ like an ugly mess for my neck of the woods. I have to agree but think sleet because of the Banana, if it wasn't there it would be our typical SWFE 3 inches to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like the GFS gets the sfc warm front up to the Pike. That's where the thermal gradient exists right behind the streamline convergence. North of there there's a large zone that gets up to MHT that is in the low 30s. My guess is this is the model thinking there's ZR and it's trying to latent heat the area to freezing. Then you get another sharp temperature gradient where you go from ZR to IP. Since there's no sfc latent heating with IP you get back into the deep cold. The GFS overdoes thermals and is definitely underestimating CAD so you can almost surely push that IP line further south and the actual warm sector from the Pike to near the south coast. And the further south that IP and SN make it the colder the air you can advect into the ZR zone to offset latent heating. tl;dr version...toss the GFS sfc params Unfortunately what is good for the Goose is not for the Gander. I was starting to get worried about the cutting of qpf up here and being too far north. With the northward shift of the models comes better qpf chances but introduces warm air down south. I think the CAD will overperform in SNE at the surface so I'd push those GFS 2m temps further southward than what is shown but the midlevel warmth (taken that one run) would introduce more sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is def northwest of 00z...it is matching the trend of the other globals. Painful. Almost as painful as the arctic high conversation in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is def northwest of 00z...it is matching the trend of the other globals. Yeah, but it shunts the surface low east ala NAM. Nothing like the GFS running from NYC to BOS to the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You're saying precisely the opposite of what is indicated from all available guidance... I suspect you're focused on the storm positioning/attributes in making this assessment, which probably are in error ...least that's the logical recourse to figure out what would motivate this statement of yours, when there is indication of that withing available guidance spectrum. Yes Tip. Again just disecting the GFS not a forecast, just look at what that specific models was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: Yeah, but it shunts the surface low east ala NAM. Nothing like the GFS running from NYC to BOS to the GOM. Yeah it def looks a bit more realistic than the GFS/GGEM on the sfc plot (esp GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Admittedly, I'm going to be disappointed if I ping during this. Might not get the 18" GYX is calling for, but pinging would be a bigger let down. Still expecting arctic high to do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: Yes Tip. Again just disecting the GFS not a forecast, just look at what that specific models was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, RDRY said: The position and strength do look classic. But - maybe this is a complete misinterpretation on my part - the isobars around the high do not look classic. They aren't curved. It looks like just a fast, flat flow of Arctic air, which may explain why many of the models are forcing the system so far north, as the high is not really pressing south. If anything, it's giving up a little ground. If you look at the GFS it certainly has the high moving to the N/NE. Perhaps that is why the solution shows the low passing by in the manner depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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