ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Anafront trying to get going again. Not quite enough for anything notable but gotta watch that energy at the base of trough. There's still a lot of trough axis to to our west to work through after the WCB has pushed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: So much for bombing at 12z we're on to the ensembles Still time for that, but obviously not preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Far enough north to bring rain in here now, similar to 6z, just less frozen precip this time around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Noticable change in track compare to 0Z Euro last night. Hope this goes colder tonight or shades closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Feels like I’m up against Charles Barkley with all the head fakes. Noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looked similar but faster to me. Watch some wraparound light snows too as it falls to 7F lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Greg said: Noticable change in track compare to 0Z Euro last night. Hope this goes colder tonight or shades closed. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Greg said: Noticable change in track compare to 0Z Euro last night. Hope this goes colder tonight or shades closed. Close the shades on 9 or 10", ending as ice? 24 hours ago, you were closing the shades on 5". Try blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Feels like I’m up against Charles Barkley with all the head fakes. Noise. Yeah there is basically no change. Just take it from that angle. It is faster which will make it seem warmer than it really was in comparison to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Far enough north to bring rain in here now, similar to 6z, just less frozen precip this time around... Lol. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: What? Greg interprets models like a teen on the Brady Bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I don't know what some actually are looking at on here really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Far enough north to bring rain in here now, similar to 6z, just less frozen precip this time around... You wouldn't rain on that. While the euro is far superior to the GFS with its handling of CAD, it is still going to underplay it quite a bit...esp on the southern extent closer to the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Greg interprets models like a teen on the Brady Bunch. Take a look at 0Z model tough guy and the 12Z and tell me that isn't a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's hard to tell with the off-set intervals but it looks like the Euro's held serve on the phasing timing.. The warm push at 850 gets too far N to be "cold solution" however - so not sure what filter people are using to interpret that. It's probably not final, either - nor is the Euro totally correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. What? He's rattled over a possible hour or two of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: No changes . AWT Damaging ZR storm still on for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: He's rattled over a possible hour or two of sleet. The horror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Whineminster said: Damaging ZR storm still on for you? Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's interesting as this 96 hour interval arrives.. . I see this as phasing evolution at mid levels, but the surface reflection is hauled ass way out ahead ... and almost get ejected out of the trough it's doing so far - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Greg said: Take a look at 0Z model tough guy and the 12Z and tell me that isn't a change. Sounds like your expectations for this storm were unrealistic. Why is the Euro lights out? Is it because it's not wall-to-wall snow for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The only noticeable change in the morning operational runs is that both the GFS and ECMWF cut back on qpf as someone mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: The only noticeable change in the morning operational runs is that both the GFS and ECMWF cut back on qpf as someone mentioned. With nammy being low on qpf from the get go, I mentioned it was a small red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You wouldn't rain on that. While the euro is far superior to the GFS with its handling of CAD, it is still going to underplay it quite a bit...esp on the southern extent closer to the low track. I have noticed systems like this go either way...last year's storm a couple days before Christmas took forever to warm up here and when it did, I think we barely hit 33. On systems with a strong sse wind, we warm up faster than expected, flipping from snow to sleet to rain really quick. The models are going to their typical windshield wiper game right now, so I expect to see it go back and forth for a bit. I just don't want half of the precip falling as frz rain, sleet and snow please. I enjoy my heat when the temps are near 0.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 this is still a pretty good solution for New England. Nyc not so much i wonder what thunder thingy is doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What Greg is referring to is the 20 mile change in the sleet line which occurred at 6z and hasn’t changed at 12z I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasted LOL. Like I said, I will be! I'll even do a shot for you. ECMWF ticked warmer towards the GFS AITIW. Get out there and pile it high before the rain. Seriously, I think you get wet between your legs for a bit but it will just add your pack. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: The only noticeable change in the morning operational runs is that both the GFS and ECMWF cut back on qpf as someone mentioned. Yeah, I had said that a page back or so, But for the type and speed of the system, Like i said, Its probably 12-18" for a big swath with maybe a weenie 20" in there but i don't see anyone getting 2' as modeled right now unless this blows up into a miller B with stacking lows and thats for the ones that stay all snow, If you have some pellets in there, I would probably go 8-14" in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, MarkO said: LOL. Like I said, I will be! I'll even do a shot for you. ECMWF ticked warmer towards the GFS AITIW. Get out there and pile it high before the rain. Seriously, I think you get wet between your legs for a bit but it will just add your pack. Good luck. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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