RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 We started the headlines early area wide with freezing drizzle and freezing rain expanding quickly and already reports of accidents.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 IWX about to do the same as LOT, they're expecting more freezing rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: We started the headlines early area wide with freezing drizzle and freezing rain expanding quickly and already reports of accidents. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Numerous accidents and DIDs already being reported 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just drove through fz dz from IL/WI state line on I-90 to RFD. Now I’m stationary on the RFD east side it has changed over to light flurries. The freezing drizzle was accreting rapidly on my windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Well that started fast... Light freezing mist where I’m at (Elgin IL) and driveway and roads have a glaze already. Rain hits the windshield and by time the wipers move it to the side it’s frozen. Air temp 19 per car thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Back to fz dz. Will stop with the obs, but thought that I’d share it’s a very fluid situation (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Saw several accidents near ohare just now. Also multiple people driving with their heads out the driver side window. People need to know to use their defrosters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I think Somebody may get up to a half inch of ice if the temp stays below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Everything’s already a thin sheet of ice in Sycamore, even salted sidewalks are slippery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I think i'm getting some freezing drizzle right now. It's hard to tell though from a school window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Everything’s already a thin sheet of ice in Sycamore, even salted sidewalks are slippery Days like today are when I am happy to be home with my newborn son, and NOT at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Somewhat strange, but based on radar, it appears the windmills SW of Dekalb perked up the returns that have no propogated NE towards hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 ZR now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Well now the last four runs of the HRRR have shown temps staying below freezing much longer than previously forecast resulting in more ice accumulation in Northern IN. This is the latest run. I still think this overdone as temperatures do get close to 30/31 with heavier rain resulting in less efficient ice accretion, however, if this trend continues it may become a nowcasting event with a serious possibility of some areas in Michiana seeing 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Freezing drizzle in IC. Roads and sidewalks are horrible already. I nearly slipped on the sidewalk coming back from class. If we get any significant amount of snow on top of this respectable sheet of ice, traveling will be very treacherous to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snoblo Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 FZRA (maybe more a drizzle) in Bloomington-Normal, there's a good glaze on everything, including my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH TO THE I-72 TO DANVILLE CORRIDOR DUE TO REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IN AREAS NOT ALREADY COVERED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY. MADE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT GET QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING STARTING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WORKING NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMER TEMPS WILL BRING AN END TO THE FREEZING POTENTIAL AND WILL HAVE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AS THIS OCCURS. WILL SEND AN UPDATE NOW FOR CHANGES ALREADY MADE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Glaze of ice on all surfaces with FZDZ/-FZRA here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Dewpoint at ORD increased from -6 to 20 during the past 15 hours. Of course, it was very low to begin with...and there's still a ways to go to get near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 36 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH TO THE I-72 TO DANVILLE CORRIDOR DUE TO REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IN AREAS NOT ALREADY COVERED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY. MADE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT GET QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING STARTING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WORKING NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMER TEMPS WILL BRING AN END TO THE FREEZING POTENTIAL AND WILL HAVE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AS THIS OCCURS. WILL SEND AN UPDATE NOW FOR CHANGES ALREADY MADE. Weird here cuz it shows returns over Peoria but it is barely misting. Not really much of a glaze on anything. Temps already up to 30. Only thing that makes me wonder is with dews holding in the mid 20s wonder if evaporative cooling will prevent rain and favor more mixed precip longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 -FZRA just started here. Gonna be a long day/night of listening to accidents in the police scanner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I sure prefer snow over this Ice stuff. If nothing else a least some snow to cover it up at the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Reduced vis. in lgt snow in Madison. Very tiny flake size, about a tenth of an inch accumulation so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Mostly been light snow here when there's been something falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Pretty clear that temps are outpacing the coldest models in the WAA regime. Now just a question of whether a blend will work or lean toward warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Weird here cuz it shows returns over Peoria but it is barely misting. Not really much of a glaze on anything. Temps already up to 30. Only thing that makes me wonder is with dews holding in the mid 20s wonder if evaporative cooling will prevent rain and favor more mixed precip longer Just drove from Pekin to the north side of PIA...there was some liquid on my car..not frozen car temp 34 in pekin and 32 north side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 UPDATE 1130 AM CST FREEZING DRIZZLE, WITH SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS, HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SLICK CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE. THIS OVERLAPS STILL SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FORECAST, AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD, AND THAT WOULD FURTHER INCREASE IMPACTS TO THE EVENING COMMUTE DUE TO MORE PROLONGED AND HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATION. HAVE RAMPED UP THE MESSAGING SOME. THE ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA, INCLUDING ROCKFORD, CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK. OVERALL THOUGH, THIS FORECAST FOR 6-12 HOURS OUT, IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES THAT LOWER THE CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PAN OUT -- NAMELY ICE DURATION AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW. THE 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MOIST ASCENT AND MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE THESE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE DRIZZLE, CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR QUICK ICE ACCUMULATION, IN FACT SOME ASOS SITES HAVE REPORTED 0.04" TO 0.06" OF ICE IN JUST THE DRIZZLE. SO ROAD IMPACTS WILL CERTAINLY BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS UPPER FORCING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS...AND THE RATE OF THIS OCCURRING HAS SLOWED...PRECIPITATION MAGNITUDE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN HIGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA AND THUS CONCERNS FOR QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. WHERE EXACTLY THAT HIGHER MAGNITUDE AXIS IS AND THE START TIME OF IT REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD IN 6-12 HOUR FORECASTS. THE SURFACE LOW IS AT 1008 MB (NOT THAT STRONG) ACROSS THE OZARKS, AND BEING THAT FAR SOUTH AND WEAKER IS LIMITING HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WARM ADVECTION IS INTO THE CWA. THE 32 DEGREE LINE IS NEARING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA, HOWEVER THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE (PLAYS MORE INTO ICE ACCUMULATION ON MANY SURFACES) LAGS THAT CONSIDERABLY, LOCATED IN FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING THROUGH STRAIGHT ADVECTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, FEEL IT WILL TAKE UNTIL EVENING TO SEE SURFACE WET BULB VALUES ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE CWA. THE AXIS WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS PARTICULARLY KEY, BECAUSE IF THAT IS THE CENTRAL CWA, IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PART OF THAT STILL COULD BE ICE. THAT SAID, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT TRY TO QUICKLY INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AS IT STARTS TO RAIN AND DO NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THAT. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS A TAD AND WE HAVE AGGRESSIVE MESSAGING OF IMPACTS TO THE EVENING COMMUTE. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS TO POWER OUTAGES MORE MINIMAL GIVEN OUR CURRENT FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS (0.10" TO NEAR 0.25"). FOR THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR SNOW AS THE -12C AND COLDER LAYER SATURATES AND FORCING STRENGTHENS. SOME OF THIS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES INCLUDING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1139 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1139 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 First warm advection band of light snow is exiting far northern Lower and working its way through eastern Upper. Area webcams show only a light coating on some roads, with little impact other than a temporary reduction in visibility. Looking upstream, radar returns are starting to fill in over the central and western UP as a sheared-out shortwave crosses Lake Superior. However, still not much filling in up to this point over southern WI down into the Central Plains as the more potent shortwave slowly gathers steam. That should change soon as we head into the afternoon and the system drifts farther east, starting to tap into a feed of Gulf moisture. The southward/downward trend in QPF continues across northern Michigan with the latest suite of 12Z guidance for the impending winter system. Both hi-res and synoptic guidance hint at this likelihood for the rest of today through tonight. Have tweaked PoPs and QPF accordingly, which generally reduced snowfall amounts through daybreak Wed by an inch or so across most of the area. At this point that wouldn`t affect the ongoing advisory across the area, but it does suggest that upgrading to a warning anywhere is looking less likely. Will continue to monitor trends this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 LOT made a good point about the wet bulbs, though that will be battling the waa so not sure how much it will slow the temperature rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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