CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NA Blocking not nearly as impressive on the 18z GEFS as it was at 12z. Looks like the piece of the PV that retros to AK is headed towards the Aleutians at the end of the run. Extrapolating a bit, it looks like a PNA ridge is developing, as it did on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 hours ago, paulythegun said: hey uhhh can we talk about that hudson bay low and how awesome it's going to look on GOES? That would be super exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: NA Blocking not nearly as impressive on the 18z GEFS as it was at 12z. Looks like the piece of the PV that retros to AK is headed towards the Aleutians at the end of the run. Extrapolating a bit, it looks like a PNA ridge is developing, as it did on the 12z run. Just can’t get any consistency with guidance showing the -NAO which is why it’s usually nothing more than a unicorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Just can’t get any consistency with guidance showing the -NAO which is why it’s usually nothing more than a unicorn. There is blocking consistently across all guidance for all of next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Just can’t get any consistency with guidance showing the -NAO which is why it’s usually nothing more than a unicorn. Have you ever made a single post in the PA or Philly forum? You have 76 posts, and it seems like just about all of them are in the mid-Atlantic subforum, even though you claim to live in a suburb of Allentown. You do know the Philly forum includes your area, so it would be a much better fit for where you live. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Have you ever made a single post in the PA or Philly forum? You have 76 posts, and it seems like just about all of them are in the mid-Atlantic subforum, even though you claim to live in a suburb of Allentown. You do know the Philly forum includes your area, so it would be a much better fit for where you live. Just hover over his name and click ignore. Your life will be instantly changed for the better. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: NA Blocking not nearly as impressive on the 18z GEFS as it was at 12z. Looks like the piece of the PV that retros to AK is headed towards the Aleutians at the end of the run. Extrapolating a bit, it looks like a PNA ridge is developing, as it did on the 12z run. Lol stick to “maybe it’s wrong”. No way to turn this into anything other than a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol stick to “maybe it’s wrong”. No way to turn this into anything other than a disaster That looks like the dreaded PAC Puke. Is there no end to the dreams it can crush? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Good thing that's fantasy land and the models can't hold the same look for more than a few runs at a time. That would be uggggggly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Models have blown nearly every 15 day pattern change this season. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: That looks like the dreaded PAC Puke. Is there no end to the dreams it can crush? That run is no more reliable than a run with epic blocking showing up at 384 hrs...lol Honestly I don't know why some of you bother sharing the absolute worse case scenario that pops up on the outskirts of fantasy land...do we like torturing ourselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I’m a little confused...the FV3, GFS, and Euro basically look the same at 168 with a very good looking pattern and everyone is doom and gloom? The pattern below is almost exactly like what was shown on the LR ensembles/weeklies. Maybe it’s not completely epic but it’s pretty dang close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That run is no more reliable than a run with epic blocking showing up at 384 hrs...lol Honestly I don't know why some of you bother sharing the absolute worse case scenario that pops up on the outskirts of fantasy land...do we like torturing ourselves? I understand this. I just was sharing a quip with the board. This board is like my support group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That run is no more reliable than a run with epic blocking showing up at 384 hrs...lol Honestly I don't know why some of you bother sharing the absolute worse case scenario that pops up on the outskirts of fantasy land...do we like torturing ourselves? Except the fact that we have not seen epic blocking yet in real time but we have seen crap...which makes the run more believable. I am still optimistic. Maybe I am in the minority? I can see how we have the next 7-10 days of a pattern that is conducive for snow...a week where things are blah and then a few weeks of a good/great pattern. I am certainly aware that the 'epic' idea may be out the window and that is a bummer but we still have a propensity for HLB throughout Feb and an active STJ. We would kill for that possibility most winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Models have blown nearly every 15 day pattern change this season. Yeah and on that panel I just focus on the features we know are primary players on the field. The TPV is going to stretch, and a piece is probably going to shed off and retro westward towards AK. Assuming it does, I don't see a ridge near Hawaii, so if that vortex retros a bit more, a PNA ridge can pop out west. Can see it on the height lines on that panel. The -NAO, which was west based and stout on the 12z GEFS run, is weak sauce on this run, which is the main reason the east has +height anomalies. Heights were normal at 12z. The 0z run might give us a better indication of which direction the pattern is heading. I can see a path forward to victory from that mess, but then again my inner Deb is loaded up on Valium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m a little confused...the FV3, GFS, and Euro basically look the same at 168 with a very good looking pattern and everyone is doom and gloom? When PSU is spooked, I am spooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: When PSU is spooked, I am spooked. He needs another 35" to be satisfied. I'll take 12-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I understand this. I just was sharing a quip with the board. This board is like my support group. Yeah I wasn't speaking to your comment specifically...just the overall sharing of worst case scenarios when we are already struggling....it just riles people's worries up even more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I'm feeling it, this is back to a cold pattern. I think it's +PNA it's the same as it was October/November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I'm feeling it, this is back to a cold pattern. I think it's +PNA it's the same as it was October/November. That's it Chuck.. ride the CAPE Train! Until it flies off the rails. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That's it Chuck.. ride the CAPE Train! Until it flies off the rails. It seems like he is 180° out of phase wit the rest of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, cbmclean said: It seems like he is 180° out of phase wit the rest of the board. He has his moments. Sometimes the phase shift is only in the 30 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: It seems like he is 180° out of phase wit the rest of the board. Sometimes models aren't in tune with the patterns, I think a lot is artificial these days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Sometimes models aren't in tune with the patterns, I think a lot is artificial these days. You have a way with words. It’s like every time I read your posts I feel like I’m melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Sometimes models aren't in tune with the patterns, I think a lot is artificial these days. #FakeModels #FakePatterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: #FakeModels #FakePatterns It could also be arctic ice melt. There does seem to be a snowstorm correlation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 43 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m a little confused...the FV3, GFS, and Euro basically look the same at 168 with a very good looking pattern and everyone is doom and gloom? The pattern below is almost exactly like what was shown on the LR ensembles/weeklies. Maybe it’s not completely epic but it’s pretty dang close. Yup and there’s no sense worrying about 384H looks when it seems the models are struggling mightily lately. We have a decent pattern next week in the MR...let’s get there first before worrying about two weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 43 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m a little confused...the FV3, GFS, and Euro basically look the same at 168 with a very good looking pattern and everyone is doom and gloom? The pattern below is almost exactly like what was shown on the LR ensembles/weeklies. Maybe it’s not completely epic but it’s pretty dang close. The context of the discussion is where the pattern goes beyond day 10, and specifically looking at what the 18z GEFS is advertising days 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The context of the discussion is where the pattern goes beyond day 10, and specifically looking at what the 18z GEFS is advertising days 10-15. Ahh got ya. I guess the tone of the day was what got me a little perplexed. I’m optimistic that the med range looks good and hope that they ensembles are rushing the 10-15 look the same way they rush in a good pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah and on that panel I just focus on the features we know are primary players on the field. The TPV is going to stretch, and a piece is probably going to shed off and retro westward towards AK. Assuming it does, I don't see a ridge near Hawaii, so if that vortex retros a bit more, a PNA ridge can pop out west. Can see it on the height lines on that panel. The -NAO, which was west based and stout on the 12z GEFS run, is weak sauce on this run, which is the main reason the east has +height anomalies. Heights were normal at 12z. The 0z run might give us a better indication of which direction the pattern is heading. I can see a path forward to victory from that mess, but then again my inner Deb is loaded up on Valium. Loop the 18z Fv3 northern hemisphere h5 progression. It actually mostly fits the 18z gefs but stays decent the whole time. Eps mean 2m temps are below normal d10-15. I think embedded inside of the mean h5 are a bunch of half decent solutions. Of course it could all break the wrong way and winter ends in early Feb but I'm not worried at all. My gut is telling me that we aren't headed towards a shutout pattern and i also beleive that before anything goes wrong in real time that we'll already see the way out (assuming anything does go wrong in real time). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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