January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

Just now, LP08 said:

Ahh got ya.  I guess the tone of the day was what got me a little perplexed.  I’m optimistic that the med range looks good and hope that they ensembles are rushing the 10-15 look the same way they rush in a good pattern change.  

Could be rushing it, or maybe overemphasizing it altogether.

Or we could be headed into another long duration Pac puke shutout pattern. Right now I don't favor this option.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Loop the 18z Fv3 northern hemisphere h5 progression. It actually mostly fits the 18z gefs but stays decent the whole time.  Eps mean 2m temps are below normal d10-15. I think embedded inside of the mean h5 are a bunch of half decent solutions. Of course it could all break the wrong way and winter ends in early Feb but I'm not worried at all. My gut is telling me that we aren't headed towards a shutout pattern and i also beleive that before anything goes wrong in real time that we'll already see the way out (assuming anything does go wrong in real time).

This is exactly where I am at on this.

[psuhoffman]

Ok so my attempt to “bob chill” the atmosphere hasn’t seemed to do any good today.  I’m not really sold where this is going.  @C.A.P.E. is right there is a way out.  As the tpv splits and one piece retrogrades if the NAO does go negative it should exert enough pressure on the height field to continue the retrogression and get the trough far enough west to pop a trough in the east. It wouldn’t be the type of pattern where the trough progresses from the west. The trough would literally develop over us. That’s one option that leads to a good pattern.  

A second option is the tpv continues retrograding without a -NAO.  That would resume the current epo dominant pattern. Perhaps with an Aleutian trough that might initiate an epo pna ridge further east and help our chances. That’s not bad but I’m skeptical. As wavelengths shorten it’s even harder for a ridge axis like we have had to work. Maybe the trough off the west coast changes that. 

The last option is the trough sets up shop over AK again like in Dec and winters over.  I don’t actually favor that option right now but the fact it’s even on the table disappoints me and I won’t say the possibility doesn’t make me a little nervous. 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

I'll say this... if this panel verifies in real time then imo the ensembles are going to bust in the long range. I've never seen a transient one of these. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll say this... if this panel verifies in real time then imo the ensembles are going to bust in the long range. I've never seen a transient one of these. 

 

NAO going negative isn't such a far out thing.. it's almost negative now. 

[BristowWx]

GEFS is a not so good look beyond 300.  Warm anomalies across conus.  Awful really.  

[showmethesnow]

Not really much for op runs when they start getting at range but I did think the overnight Euro showed quite a bit of promise despite it not delivering. Also shows how important the pv evolution and placement will be in the upcoming period.

Below we have the setup as we have our day 30 storm running to our west into the eastern lakes. Pv is dropping into N Dakota/Minn. with energy that has already rotated through which is east of the prime 50/50 region. Keep in mind for future reference that these two pieces of energy (pv and the eastern based low) are interconnected so the 50/50 low will respond to where the pv decides to travel and shift accordingly. This setup as is basically ruins our chances with the 30th storm as well as causes disruption with the future pattern as can be seen below.

 

Notice after the pv rotates through the lakes it runs up into the NAO region knocking down our developing -Nao. Not only that but its initial drop through N Dakota/Minn. has beaten back and pushed the western ridging (+PNA) westward to off the western coast. Not really the greatest of looks at this point.

 

 

But..... If we shift that deep pv drop eastward several hundred miles things look radically different for both our 30th storm and the period afterwards. With the pv dropping into the west/central lakes we would also see a shift eastward of the 50/50 energy into a more favorable location. This setup would probably be very favorable for an east coast storm. Not only that but with the shifting of the pv drop eastward we would also see it's progression, as it pulls northward, farther to the east as well. Instead of knocking down heights in the NAO region it would tend to help force the WAR northward into the NAO domain to help build heights. Not only that but we would tend to see a shifting westward of the ridging in the west as the farther east drop of the pv into the CONUS would allow the ridging to build farther east. All said we would be looking at a pretty good setup. 

At 6-7 days there is plenty of time to see the needed changes with the pv especially considering the models have been a little rough with that feature.

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

GEFS is a not so good look beyond 300.  Warm anomalies across conus.  Awful really.  

lol. -PNA is no longer really a thing, it cuts over to -WPO pretty quickly, it could mean that the El Nino is still going strong.

[showmethesnow]

And just like that we get the PAC back. PV now showing over the western Aleutians with ridging building once again in the PNA/EPO regions.  Not a bad overall look to boot.

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

And just like that we get the PAC back. PV now showing over the western Aleutians with ridging building once again in the PNA/EPO regions.  Not a bad overall look to boot.

 

That look there is about 2 days away from an eastern trough again. As the idea of the retrograding trough locks in for many days now I think it’s becoming likely. Guidance has struggles with the NAO but it has been ok with the rest of the long wave pattern. It makes sense with the strong mjo phase 4/5/6 spike.  The EPS does suggest it’s temporary but the fact we might lose a week in February which was supposed to be prime time is really disappointing to me. I do think there is time for another reload but I thought we would be past that by now. The mjo is really really really destroying this winter.  Last cfs run reloads the pattern but we lose Feb 1-15 basically  that’s a tough pill to swallow  

Plus for you and me we are really loosing time to save this thing up here. DC needs like 5” to beat climo. I still need 28” just to get to average. If we don’t score in the next 10 days and head into a relax reload needing that much just to get to climo and it’s likely Feb 12-15 before things get good again we’re in big trouble.  It will be pretty disappointing to not even get to climo this year. Maybe that’s my problem. I’m still chasing a good winter. I didn’t get bothered at all the last 2 years because I gave up on that and was just chasing any snow at all and trying to avoid an epic dumpster fire.  When there is a Nina people would do well to just give up in getting much snow and track for the chance at a fluke and it will save a lot of angst.  One decent storm was all I wanted. But this year has potential. This year I’m chasing beating climo and so basically having the same results as the last 2 winters at this point is way more frustrating. Maybe I need to reset my expectations and just try to avoid the total fail.

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That look there is about 2 days away from an eastern trough again. As the idea of the retrograding trough locks in for many days now I think it’s becoming likely. Guidance has struggles with the NAO but it has been ok with the rest of the long wave pattern. It makes sense with the strong mjo phase 4/5/6 spike.  The EPS does suggest it’s temporary but the fact we might lose a week in February which was supposed to be prime time is really disappointing to me. I do think there is time for another reload but I thought we would be past that by now. The mjo is really really really destroying this winter.  Last cfs run reloads the pattern but we lose Feb 1-15 basically  that’s a tough pill to swallow  

Plus for you and me we are really loosing time to save this thing up here. DC needs like 5” to beat climo. I still need 28” just to get to average. If we don’t score in the next 10 days and head into a relax reload needing that much just to get to climo and it’s likely Feb 12-15 before things get good again we’re in big trouble.  It will be pretty disappointing to not even get to climo this year. Maybe that’s my problem. I’m still chasing a good winter. I didn’t get bothered at all the last 2 years because I gave up on that and was just chasing any snow at all and trying to avoid an epic dumpster fire.  When there is a Nina people would do well to just give up in getting much snow and track for the chance at a fluke and it will save a lot of angst.  One decent storm was all I wanted. But this year has potential. This year I’m chasing beating climo and so basically having the same results as the last 2 winters at this point is way more frustrating. Maybe I need to reset my expectations and just try to avoid the total fail.

I think this is where we differ in our thoughts. Granted the odds have lessened as we lose that great look we once had I wouldn't write that period of time off what so ever. I see potential during that stretch myself. I think starting around the 30th and through the extended we in fact do see, at the very least, a modest event of (2-4, 3-6). Now it may not be a KU and it may be tainted but snow is snow after all. And who knows, the models have struggled once outside of 7 days especially with the pv which I believe is where our fortunes lie, so lets see where they go.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I think this is where we differ in our thoughts. Granted the odds have lessened as we lose that great look we once had I wouldn't write that period of time off what so ever. I see potential during that stretch myself. I think starting around the 30th and through the extended we in fact do see, at the very least, a modest event of (2-4, 3-6). Now it may not be a KU and it may be tainted but snow is snow after all. And who knows, the models have struggled once outside of 7 days especially with the pv which I believe is where our fortunes lie, so lets see where they go.

The failure of the tpv to weaken and split is one thing that really mucked up this period we’re jn right now.  

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The failure of the tpv to weaken and split is one thing that really mucked up this period we’re jn right now.  

I think the bigger player in this has been the MJO and the lack of ENSO forcing. Though we have seen hints of an El Nino base pattern we have never really attained it with any consistency. In fact i think the pv has been somewhat of a saving grace as it has tended to force the trough farther east then we would typically see with a La Nina pattern which we have been fighting all winter for the most part.

[snowmagnet]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The failure of the tpv to weaken and split is one thing that really mucked up this period we’re jn right now.  

Did the tpv not split into baby vortices?  I also saw something about it reforming and then splitting again at some point over the coming weeks. I’m guessing that is not a good thing for us... unless we can get a -NAO in the meantime. 

Also, I get that Feb is prime climo here and you haven’t had much at all in your backyard, so that is frustrating.  However, I feel like we can do pretty well in March, especially early on. They don’t typically stick around, but I think March is the new December.  We have seen some pretty good snows here in March the past 10-20 years.  

[showmethesnow]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

Did the tpv not split into baby vortices?  I also saw something about it reforming and then splitting again at some point over the coming weeks. I’m guessing that is not a good thing for us... unless we can get a -NAO in the meantime. 

Also, I get that Feb is prime climo here and you haven’t had much at all in your backyard, so that is frustrating.  However, I feel like we can do pretty well in March, especially early on. They don’t typically stick around, but I think March is the new December.  We have seen some pretty good snows here in March the past 10-20 years.  

Up in PSU land and my locale we can still do very well into mid and late March. Might be a wet and pasty snow but we can still score and occasionally big.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I think this is where we differ in our thoughts. Granted the odds have lessened as we lose that great look we once had I wouldn't write that period of time off what so ever. I see potential during that stretch myself. I think starting around the 30th and through the extended we in fact do see, at the very least, a modest event of (2-4, 3-6). Now it may not be a KU and it may be tainted but snow is snow after all. And who knows, the models have struggled once outside of 7 days especially with the pv which I believe is where our fortunes lie, so lets see where they go.

I still think the "bad period" gets muted with time. But if not, the general idea across guidance the last several days(at least my interpretation) has been about a one week reshuffle. Look at the improvement in the EPAC on the EPS in just one run. As I suspected, it quickly got back to an Aleutian low with a PNA building. Also, if this is to be more of a reshuffle, I think it might be what we need to get out of this 'cold following cutters' pattern long term. The pattern has been off just enough to keep us rainy. Hopefully the western ridge will reemerge with an axis a little further east, and some of the advertised stout NA blocking episodes materialize.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Up in PSU land and my locale we can still do very well into mid and late March. Might be a wet and pasty snow but we can still score and occasionally big.

We can but we’re not going to nickel and dime our way to climo with 2-4” storms. I can only think of a few years we went into Feb this low on snowfall and beat climo and they all required a MECS or HECS level storm to do it. 

[PivotPoint]

To me the latest ensemble runs keep showing the WAR as a consistent feature which was not there 5-7 days ago. Instead those heights were where we wanted them in the nao domain. The WAR is creating a gradient right along the coast that is forcing our storm track to be razor thin. This is part of the reason why we go from cold dry, to warm wet, back to cold dry.

Until we see that ridge rotate into the nao space or it at least relax and the +pna build with some timed blocking (real blocking doesn’t exist anymore ugh) then I see any real storm chances at a minimum. We’d need a timed front with moisture and at least a pseudo block to score otherwise imo. Not looking ideal attm 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I still think the "bad period" gets muted with time. But if not, the general idea across guidance the last several days(at least my interpretation) has been about a one week reshuffle. Look at the improvement in the EPAC on the EPS in just one run. As I suspected, it quickly got back to an Aleutian low with a PNA building. Also, if this is to be more of a reshuffle, I think it might be what we need to get out of this 'cold following cutters' pattern long term. The pattern has been off just enough to keep us rainy. Hopefully the western ridge will reemerge with an axis a little further east, and some of the advertised stout NA blocking episodes materialize.

Guess you can call me a glass half full sort of guy but I am not really sure we will see a bad period. I think the 30th and onward on the models suggests with a little luck we see some opportunities before the PAC bounces back. Of course those thoughts are based on the models being somewhat right beyond 7 days.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

To me the latest ensemble runs keep showing the WAR as a consistent feature which was not there 5-7 days ago. Instead those heights were where we wanted them in the nao domain. The WAR is creating a gradient right along the coast that is forcing our storm track to be razor thin. This is part of the reason why we go from cold dry, to warm wet, back to cold dry.

Until we see that ridge rotate into the nao space or it at least relax and the +pna build with some timed blocking (real blocking doesn’t exist anymore ugh) then I see any real storm chances at a minimum. We’d need a timed front with moisture and at least a pseudo block to score otherwise imo. Not looking ideal attm 

Actually the WA +heights have been persistent for a while, centered off the Canadian Maritimes for the most part. That does need to change IMO. Essentially we have had a 50-50 high, which is problematic for getting a good storm track with cold air. The mean ridge axis out west needs to be further east, and if in fact what many runs of the GFS/GEFS have been suggesting comes to fruition, h5 heights will build into the NAO space and the WAR should weaken.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Guess you can call me a glass half full sort of guy but I am not really sure we will see a bad period. I think the 30th and onward on the models suggests with a little luck we see some opportunities before the PAC bounces back. Of course those thoughts are based on the models being somewhat right beyond 7 days.

Agreed. I say "bad period" because of the hysteria in here lately about the pattern going completely to crap. Its probably going to become briefly more unfavorable, but certainly not a shutout. It would help a lot if we get a legit blocking period going as the PAC is reshuffling.

[aldie 22]

Just as a casual observation for shits and giggles the long range op runs post 300 hours of the gfs were showing temps near 70 then started showing 60 then 50 then 40s now seeing 30s. Not scientific in any way but count me in the muted camp...and yes Ji I know it's not showing snow but to me jumpy does not instill confidence. My bold call...we get a substantial snow 4"+ around 2/2

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, BristowWx said:

GEFS is a not so good look beyond 300.  Warm anomalies across conus.  Awful really.  

Good thing is, it very likely wont play out that way. Watch the next 2-3 runs beyond day 10. 

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Actually the WA +heights have been persistent for a while, centered off the Canadian Maritimes for the most part. That does need to change IMO. Essentially we have had a 50-50 high, which is problematic for getting a good storm track with cold air. The mean ridge axis out west needs to be further east, and if in fact what many runs of the GFS/GEFS runs have been suggesting comes to fruition, h5 heights will build into the NAO space and the WAR should weaken.

Been positive this morning but I am going to Deb here for a second. Mind you this is just my general impression over the years, the statisticians can correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me once we get WAR established and it reaches mid winter then it is very hard to dislodge. My thoughts at this point are that we will not see a sustained western/central based -NAO for the rest of the winter and only bootlegs as the WAR temporarily gets shoved up into the NAO domain before WAR gets reestablished. Wouldn't rule out a somewhat sustained east based -NAO as heights build out of Europe but that configuration typically doesn't work for us. Hoping I am wrong here.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Just as a casual observation for shits and giggles the long range op runs post 300 hours of the gfs were showing temps near 70 then started showing 60 then 50 then 40s now seeing 30s. Not scientific in any way but count me in the muted camp...and yes Ji I know it's not showing snow but to me jumpy does not instill confidence. My bold call...we get a substantial snow 4"+ around 2/2

Was looking around the second as well. If we don't see a fairly significant storm around the 30th that will open up the possibilities around the 2nd as the pv retreats.

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Actually the WA +heights have been persistent for a while, centered off the Canadian Maritimes for the most part. That does need to change IMO. Essentially we have had a 50-50 high, which is problematic for getting a good storm track with cold air. The mean ridge axis out west needs to be further east, and if in fact what many runs of the GFS/GEFS runs have been suggesting comes to fruition, h5 heights will build into the NAO space and the WAR should weaken.

The war is a necessary step though. It was the mechanism to pump heat into the NAO space to develop blocking. But it keeps getting aborted. These things are all interrelated so I’m not sure where the causality is but I can say the very first “uh oh” I had was a week ago when it started to look less likely the tpv was going to weaken, split, or drop and rotate into the 50/50 area. We needed that. A strong tpv oscillating around in north central Canada is not a good look for snow here. One problem is that runs continuous interference in the NAO tanking. It keeps deflecting attempts at ridging across the top. The war keeps trying to pump a ridge there and it gets knocked down by the tpv. Honestly a tpv there sucks. That’s exactly where we want higher heights not lower. I would even take my chances with a tpv right over the pole with ridging under it across Canada over that. We have gotten some nice snows that way. Last weeks storm was an example of ridging in southern Canada working. 

I guess if we are looking for silver linings the coming retrogression gets the tpv out of the way so that if things reload maybe they shake out better next time. I want that thing gone like now! I want to see red all over central Canada. 

No more blue balls!!!!

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Just as a casual observation for shits and giggles the long range op runs post 300 hours of the gfs were showing temps near 70 then started showing 60 then 50 then 40s now seeing 30s. Not scientific in any way but count me in the muted camp...and yes Ji I know it's not showing snow but to me jumpy does not instill confidence. My bold call...we get a substantial snow 4"+ around 2/2

EPS kinda likes the idea.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been positive this morning but I am going to Deb here for a second. Mind you this is just my general impression over the years, the statisticians can correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me once we get WAR established and it reaches mid winter then it is very hard to dislodge. My thoughts at this point are that we will not see a sustained western/central based -NAO for the rest of the winter and only bootlegs as the WAR temporarily gets shoved up into the NAO domain before WAR gets reestablished. Wouldn't rule out a somewhat sustained east based -NAO as heights build out of Europe but that configuration typically doesn't work for us. Hoping I am wrong here.

Lots of people are saying this and I don’t get it. Maybe this is why I’m more down. Im also doubting a sustained block but I don’t see a path to a win without it. Some snow maybe from a weak wave or a caboose but a true epic stretch to get us to climo nope.  The base stats of the epo and Atlantic isn’t conducive for snow without blocking this year.  We have had a epo war pattern and it’s doing us no good. I’m done banging my head against that wall. And an epo does us even less good as we get later and wavelengths shorten making it even more likely troughs amplify west of us. If you didn’t like an epo war pattern in January I promise you won’t in February.  2014 and 2015 were flukes but also required a perfect tpv displacement and had less Atlantic ridge. I’m not feeling very positive if we’re praying for that same kind of confluence of perfect star alignment to win here. I think if the blocking fails we might get some snow the rest of the way but it’s unlikely to be anything memorable and this year is likely to end up a fail up here. DC could pull off a win since they only need like 5 more inches but even there it would fall short of most expectations. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The war is a necessary step though. It was the mechanism to pump heat into the NAO space to develop blocking. But it keeps getting aborted. These things are all interrelated so I’m not sure where the causality is but I can say the very first “uh oh” I had was a week ago when it started to look less likely the tpv was going to weaken, split, or drop and rotate into the 50/50 area. We needed that. A strong tpv oscillating around in north central Canada is not a good look for snow here. One problem is that runs continuous interference in the NAO tanking. It keeps deflecting attempts at ridging across the top. The war keeps trying to pump a ridge there and it gets knocked down by the tpv. Honestly a tpv there sucks. That’s exactly where we want higher heights not lower. I would even take my chances with a tpv right over the pole with riffing under it across Canada over that. We have gotten some nice snows that way. Last weeks storm was an example of rushing in southern Canada working. 

I guess if we are looking for silver linings the coming retrogression gets the tpv out of the way so that if things reload maybe they shake out better next time. I want that thing gone like now! I want to see red all over central Canada. 

No more blue balls!!!!

The SWE happened, and so we got our piece of the TPV. Given that reality, I was also hoping to see the 'stretch', with the eastern lobe in the 50-50 region. The models were showing it, and it was a good look.

The 0z EPS did what I expected around AK with the PV, although I thought it might take a few runs. Lets hope that idea holds. Hopefully we start to see more red up top in future runs. That would seem to be a logical progression.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The SWE happened, and so we got our piece of the TPV. Given that reality, I was also hoping to see the 'stretch', with the eastern lobe in the 50-50 region. The models were showing it, and it was a good look.

The 0z EPS did what I expected around AK with the PV, although I thought it might take a few runs. Lets hope that idea holds. Hopefully we start to see more red up top in future runs. That would seem to be a logical progression.

This is why I don’t waste a lot of time on strat stuff. They are really hard to predict. Then they don’t always impact the troposphere. Then if they do often it’s not in a way that increases our snow chances. It’s not a lot of bang for your buck imo.