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Typhoon Tip

January 2019 Discussion II

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The synoptic change is big. That’s not just cold, it’s a different look at 500.

Phase job with PV lobe in trouble.....AWT.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Phase job with PV lobe in trouble.....AWT.

That's what 12z ensemble uncertainty was showing. The NW solutions were driven by northern stream features. Speed was the "southern" stream, but that shortwave is out over the open Pacific. With 48-60 hours to go before that's over the West Coast there could be some additional swings, but maybe GOES-17 is providing a little better sampling and data ingest.

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

For once, NAM led the way on the 0z runs, so far anyway.

To be fair, the NAM always leads the 00z runs because it comes out first. :nerdsmiley:

  • Haha 2

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Honestly this 00z trends are better, but still too warm for my liking on Cape Cod, I would like an all snow event, but it doesn't seem likely at this time, I will gladly take 6"

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Over 3 inches of qpf on th he Canadian!! :o

I mean the NAEFS has a pretty stout IVT plume (originating in the Gulf of Mexico). High QPF around the warm front shouldn't be out of the question.

 

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12z CMC didn't produce any snow over Cape and Islands, 00z tonight's run produces 3-6".  Also, anyone watching the storm for mid-week next week, that looks like a bomb.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I will gladly take 10-20" of snow

I hope you get it James you and I are on the same boat ukmet or nothing

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

I hope you get it James you and I are on the same boat ukmet or nothing

Yes, it would be nice to get back to back storms producing all snow.

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