Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, powderfreak said:

Even I could use a slight east shift.  A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. 

But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here.

 

heh.. I like the 969 mb position 25 mi sw of Block Island...  I'd like to see that member's depiction purely for the morbid cinema -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even I could use a slight east shift.  A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. 

But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here.

IMG_2062.thumb.PNG.d15b5ecf8f7b66e15e6825db38eedf1f.PNGIMG_2063.thumb.PNG.c01740fe1a3c26f974a85b8ef6fa62bd.PNG

Verbatim, I may just get to double digits on the season if that plays out. Hot dog!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter.

I was too scared to weight 1969 more heavily than I did....I should have grown a pair. I told you in November it was the best ENSO analog. Its been less RNA and less NAO than that season, but we haven't reaped any of the benefits of more PNA, so far.

Hopefully the NAO comes through...it should.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't forget....the system is also gaining better dynamics as it heads northeast, so I would keep expectations in SW NE in check.

It has a crazy tight gradient...so you probably want the low to track just east of Cape Ann going gangbusters at that point....would prob give you a few hours of blizzard conditions on that setup. The OP Euro basically tracked it right over the interior up to Tamarack's fanny and we saw how close that was. We don't need this over ACK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter.

Living life with the ARW and GGEM.  Good partners in crime for about 4 winters there ha ha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It has a crazy tight gradient...so you probably want the low to track just east of Cape Ann going gangbusters at that point....would prob give you a few hours of blizzard conditions on that setup. The OP Euro basically tracked it right over the interior up to Tamarack's fanny and we saw how close that was. We don't need this over ACK.

I favor a track just east of Boston...probably southeast MA....could get a Dec 2005 lite closing act.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I favor a track east of Boston...probably southeast MA....could get a Dec 2005 lite closing act.

Yeah that's prob what we're going for to try and score on this one...a 4-5 hour blizzard.

 

There's obviously some scenarios where it could work out in perfect fashion where we get a bunch of overrunning along the front if it sets up east of us and then we get the blizzard later on, but that is a long shot. I think the most likely path to a "successful" storm is the rain/snow/slop flash freezing over to a 5 hour blizzard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's prob what we're going for to try and score on this one...a 4-5 hour blizzard.

 

There's obviously some scenarios where it could work out in perfect fashion where we get a bunch of overrunning along the front if it sets up east of us and then we get the blizzard later on, but that is a long shot. I think the most likely path to a "successful" storm is the rain/snow/slop flash freezing over to a 5 hour blizzard.

Yea.....I mentioned earlier...tick PNA ridge a hair west and phase just the right amount of PV in, and there is a path to a blizzard. But that is a long shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

for this year it is a crushjob...

Oddly, the only two worthwhile storms in Greenfield have been warning 6"+ and 9"+, 2 months apart and almost no nickel and dimes in between.   Weird, weird winter.  I imagine I am not to far behind average to date.  Have 18.5" on the snow table but probably closer to 20"+ since I neglected to record a few .5" events out of frustration.    Can only improve from here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

So it may mean nothing in the end but the NAM is so ridiculously different than its 12z run right now, it currently has a 994 off the GA Coast. Much closer to what the EURO has.

Still too Far East but talk about a huge shift west. 990 east of hatteras. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even I could use a slight east shift.  A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. 

But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here.

IMG_2062.thumb.PNG.d15b5ecf8f7b66e15e6825db38eedf1f.PNGIMG_2063.thumb.PNG.c01740fe1a3c26f974a85b8ef6fa62bd.PNG

Like we need reminding lol. FyI the thaw in 69 up there happened this week too. Expect to keep crushing it maxing out last week of March. Congrats man its your winter of your dreams

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...