yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, seether said: Anyone got photos of 18z? The 18z GGEM link was posted at the bottom of the last page if that's what you are looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don’t know the scale of blues. But it looks heavy. But it probably isn’t. Lol. I’m on my phone so it’s a pain to pull up detailed maps. 18z GGEM DCA meteogram is 17 to 18mm of snow. Correlates to 0.65-0.70" QPF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GGEM DCA meteogram is 17 to 18mm of snow. Correlates to 0.65-0.70" QPF I wish the GGEM was a good model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I wish the GGEM was a good model i honestly dont remember a time it was ever right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: i honestly dont remember a time it was ever right When it leads the way, it’s never right. Ok. Almost time for 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 fun times at 10:00pm sat night 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: disaster...we dont even see snow sunday during the day time Then that is the model that will verify. Not kidding. Taking the worst model output is prudent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks like the 6z run of nam this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 how come the OP always shows the worst ensemble member 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Doesn't look too terrible. I'll take 2" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: Doesn't look too terrible. I'll take 2" at this point. 2 step forwards and 5 steps back. 18z was good to us but then just crushed it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Ji is in the jackpot on the 18z euro and he's the most distraught over it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ji is in the jackpot on the 18z euro and he's the most distraught over it. so i ask...why is the OP run always resemble the worst of the ensemble member.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 1-3 of snow that sticks is better than our 60th rainstorm in a row...so I’m not mad at this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 So the pattern changes just that quickly? It's been overperforming rain events constantly, now we are in the mid-1960s? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 2 step forwards and 5 steps back. 18z was good to us but then just crushed it I never really bought into the good GGEM run, nor even the good ensemble means. I think the dry, strung out solutions are more realistic. So this doesn't surprise me. We'll most likely have many more opportunities in the weeks to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: I never really bought the good GGEM run, nor even the good ensemble means. I think the dry, strung out solutions are more realistic. So this doesn't surprise me. We'll most likely have many more opportunities in the weeks to come. Yes, temps are cold, let’s get some snow on the ground, get the pattern right, and then go hunting for some big storms. This was never looking like anything more than light/moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: And of course 18z Euro is the buzzkill. Always. Assuming it’s correct. Ha that was funny. So far that is the worst. So we have the low water mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro is really new at happy hour runs. So not going to let the new dictate things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 1-3 of snow that sticks is better than our 60th rainstorm in a row...so I’m not mad at this. But the real problem when dealing in .1-.2 is that might actually mean zero. Seem it happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Here is the shred factory in action. You can see the Jet streak over the great lakes and it's right entrance region that would have produced lift over us and help hold the system together, gets flattened and pushed east before the southern stream can get to us. @ers-wxman1 Did a good job pointing out that we had limited potential with this setup after we lost the NS monday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: But the real problem when dealing in .1-.2 is that might actually mean zero. Seem it happen Sure it’s possible but it doesn’t seem like the likeliest outcome since no models are showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Euro is really new at happy hour runs. So not going to let the new dictate things I assume it has the same data ingest as the 0 and 12z? Just grabbing for straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Friendly reminder. This is the storm thread. Keep your meltdowns out of here and stay on topic. Please. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 1-3 of snow that sticks is better than our 60th rainstorm in a row...so I’m not mad at this. That map is not 1-3 it is 2-4 for basically everyone in the forum. And I am perfectly happy with that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Sure it’s possible but it doesn’t seem like the likeliest outcome since no models are showing that. You’re right, but we keep losing ground and it soon will be a possible outcome. Additionally, I’ve live in nova for 30 years and have seen the mountains gobble up WAA snows that have taken that approach angle west to east. I hope it doesn’t obviously but I think it’s now more of a real possibility than my thinking earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ji said: i honestly dont remember a time it was ever right Nailed 2/25/10 from 240 hours out. I think it also got both March 2014 events that hit BWI/DCA but missed us up here when all other models were way north hitting us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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