Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Is this QPF all snow? Yea, its a great run. Same ccb idea as gfs and cmc. All 3 are similar except for crazy cmc putting random lows on the map. Other than that 0z is solid so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Fv3 qpf. Solid run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 What i never thought about before is how long it takes the euro to process/ run 240 hours. From 12:45 to 2:00. It takes the Icon 15-20 minutes lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill It will nudge north the last 36 hours. Bob I know you have said the last 72 and for a long time that was the rule but I've noticed the last 3/4 years, since about 2015, it's been the last 36 and that nudge north is more like 39-60 miles not 50-100 anymore. But it's still real. If we are still sitting this close to that higher qpf stripe at 48 out I feel good. So far (other than some jv players) there hasn't been a south move to take us out of the game for that bump to place us into the max snowfall band. Usually the s streamers tic north....meaningless for me, but good luck.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Now we need the ukie to at least increase it's meager qpf by .05 and trends are intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, tplbge said: I just moved here. It won't happen. Hahaha. I was just playin anyway, BUT the GFS snowfall map had a splotch of purple over mid MoCo and western HoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: What i never thought about before is how long it takes the euro to process/ run 240 hours. From 12:45 to 2:00. It takes the Icon 15-20 minutes lol. That is why it is usually wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Now we need the ukie to at least increase it's meager qpf by .05 and trends are intact The Ukie is almost never right at the surface. Other than that, its the worlds 2nd best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, i trust the cmc. Lol. I don't trust the gem either but I've seen that look before. go through some of the moderate snows in the KU book that nearly missed being a big storm and you see jacked up stuff like that with a lead wave outrunning the washing out upper energy. March 99 had a storm that split like that. There were others. 11 minutes ago, Ji said: i think the GFS is too light with the precip North esp with the location of the Low. Still..the blue is really close to us It might be and it likely hasn't nailed down the ccb location either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @Bob Chill and @psuhoffman When would be the last time to use the ensembles like the GEFS or EPS? Tonights 00z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, its a great run. Same ccb idea as gfs and cmc. All 3 are similar except for crazy cmc putting random lows on the map. Other than that 0z is solid so far one thing i like is that daytime (or midday) sunday (estimating here) looks to be when the better stuff arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: i blame PSU for whipping out the CIPS stuff when he knew that 500s didnt support it Ok...I said it wasn't likely but guidance is striping just south of us with .75 qpf and you adjust this look about 3-4 mb deeper and 50 miles NW and you have that analog snowfall map. You really think that kind of adjustment isn't possible at 102 hours???? Likely no...possible yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, yoda said: @Bob Chill and @psuhoffman When would be the last time to use the ensembles like the GEFS or EPS? Tonights 00z runs? Yea, inside of 72 hours is where ops shine. But we all know if the snow or qpf mean is higher than the op then the op is out to lunch and we hug the hecs solutions. Even if there's just one hecs solution on the ens we still hug it and toss the op 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Fv3 was a good run. It does show the 95 corridor mixing but that can probably be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: @Bob Chill and @psuhoffman When would be the last time to use the ensembles like the GEFS or EPS? Tonights 00z runs? The ens still outperform the op until about 72 hours. Since the meat of the storm is outside that tonight they are still relevant. After that they can be a red flag that maybe the op was a bad run if they strongly disagree but for details the ops become preferable staring tomorrow imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 dont look at CMC 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: dont look at CMC 240 1993 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: dont look at CMC 240 Whoa boy...if that's still there in a few days, let the pandemonium begin all over again, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: dont look at CMC 240 Now that is a perfect storm with a perfect track. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: dont look at CMC 240 Gefs supports it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs supports it That is the day PSU is gitty about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs supports it whats cool is...once youve shoveled your final flake...this HECS will 6 days away 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 That was by no means the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Ukie looks more tucked near OBX than 12z to my untrained weenie eyes. Won’t know precip for a while though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: dont look at CMC 240 I did. Let’s say screw this event and start tracking a REAL storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ji said: dont look at CMC 240 Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ukie looks more tucked near OBX than 12z to my untrained weenie eyes. Won’t know precip for a while though. Hour 96 has a 1013 SLP basically right over OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z JMA at 72 looks okay, right Ji? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Meh Yeah. Only one low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Hour 96 has a 1013 SLP basically right over OBX I hope folks prepared their beach houses for the storm. 1013 can definitly blow a trashcan lid off or something 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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