jaydreb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Icon is a disaster for everyone. Hopefully it’s wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON is southern slider. Dusting to DC. SW VA over to Richmond a general 2-4. I don't have H5 out that far yet but it looked more consolidated early on as DC said. 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Icon is a disaster for everyone. Hopefully it’s wrong. Yeah, ends up awful even though I thought the H5 look was a little improved, there were higher heights out in front that didn't end up mattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Icon looking a bit less strung out/smushed at 12z. The end result isn't much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 there y'all go again looking at a model that hasn't been around long enough to establish a proven track record. And basing what will happen off of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Icon is a disaster for everyone. Hopefully it’s wrong. Yea the HP doesn’t do any favors in upstate NY that run and shunts the low. Taken at face value not too bad of a run down this way for an advisory event but yea that was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON is southern slider. Dusting to DC. SW VA over to Richmond a general 2-4. I don't have H5 out that far yet but it looked more consolidated early on as DC said. Looks to my untrained eye like NS comes down through NE and crushes it before it can gain more latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS with some pretty substantial changes out west through 60. SW more consolidated and further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 trying not to be too bantery, but this really gives you a picture. here's the vort, hour 64-140 moving from Oklahoma across North Carolina, as depicted on ICON/Euro/etc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: trying not to be too bantery, but this really gives you a picture. here's the vort, hour 64-140 moving from Oklahoma across North Carolina, as depicted on ICON/Euro/etc i just need to know how many Cruz noggins will be up come Monday if it snows all weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The s/w in the SW is only 200 miles NE of its 06z position at 78 to where it is at 72 hours on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Rumor is the GFS is highly compromised due to the shutdown therefore I suspect it will be spot on. Two wrongs making a right. I like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 SS SW stronger through 90 and further North. Heights generally the same out from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 114 Light snow throughout the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Pretty significant changes from 6z. More consolidated, stronger system. Less energy held back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Better than 6z for everyone on the forum. A light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 SLP over HSE at 123 and moving out to sea at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Of course the GFS is going to do it. Could see the changes early. If only it was right. Eta: Sliding out not up. Still snows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 NS wave is in Quebec/Ontario at 114 on 12z vs over Lake Ontario/Northern New York state at 120 on 6z, that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This is trending in the wrong direction with some confluence upstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: This is trending in the wrong direction with some confluence upstream. But it trended in the opposite direction compared to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 For those that like snow maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 If the GFS is close to what is going to happen... We just need the energy in NE to move a little more west and get behind the SSW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, yoda said: But it trended in the opposite direction compared to 06z I’m looking at the big picture over a period of several days worth of runs. It’s trending away from a more consolidated coastal storm to one that gets suppressed more south and less impactful. H5 pattern looks different and NS more suppressive, faster flow and shearing aloft in the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Interstate said: If the GFS is close to what is going to happen... We just need the energy in NE to move a little more west and get behind the SSW... What’s the old adage? Need the trough to start swinging negative at the Mississippi River.....er something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Northern stream vort is further north and allows Southern vort to come further north east up the coast. At this point you don't want to see things trend worse run to run. 6z EURO trended better and 12z GFS didn't trend worse. I'm okay with that. Still got a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I’m looking at the big picture over a period of several days worth of runs. It’s trending away from a more consolidated coastal storm to one that gets suppressed more south and less impactful. H5 pattern looks different and NS more suppressive, faster flow and shearing aloft in the vort. That's what I'm seeing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: But it trended in the opposite direction compared to 06z Noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, osfan24 said: That's what I'm seeing as well. Definitely trending away from the SECS/MECS we were seeing last night but a light event is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 there is no trend. the models are jumping all over, both in H5 and surface. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 FV3 is weaker and more strung out. Waiting on the Canadian but most other guidance now agrees on a light advisory event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now