January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[NittanyWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 12z GEFS finally caved to the milder EPS day 6-10. Notice how much the GEFS has been struggling with the fire hose Pacific Jet. You will know a pattern change is finally at hand when the day 6-10 stops correcting milder.

New run

Old run

Tried to explain this a couple of days ago.  It has really struggled with the tropics since we moved into this 4-5-6 phase space.  I've noticed this is when it is at some of its lowest skill. 

 

The AAM and Pacific remain the biggest barriers to cold.  You still got one off chances for a storm next week, but in terms of meaningfully turning the pattern on it's head, it's still a function (to me) of the AAM calming down and the MJO progressing.  And it is progressing slowly, unfortunately. 

[MJO812]

Isotherm

"The cyclonic energies associated with the stratospheric polar vortex split, propagating southwestward into SE Canada, are becoming evident in the troposphere. The principal reason why we're seeing modelling detect the not insignificant 50/50 tropospheric vortex lobe near Newfoundland in the medium range is courtesy of stratospheric modulation. The split vortex can be seen, reflected through z70/z50. This projects upon the 500mb layer quite well, and aids adjunctively in driving the -NAO signal post January 4th [this may reflect favorably on the 8th-10th, but I will say no more right now]. NAM diminution maintains for post January 5th, with tropospheric effects in the mid-latitudes quite rapid in the second week, coupled with amelioration in chi z200 divergence. ECMWF changes were quite positive today and expected. The long-term reversion depicted is still apocryphal and will continue to adjust. Again, not going to say anything more sensible weather wise, but the idea that most of January is "lost" will be wrong - I believe that quite strongly and confidently."

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

Tried to explain this a couple of days ago.  It has really struggled with the tropics since we moved into this 4-5-6 phase space.  I've noticed this is when it is at some of its lowest skill. 

 

The AAM and Pacific remain the biggest barriers to cold.  You still got one off chances for a storm next week, but in terms of meaningfully turning the pattern on it's head, it's still a function (to me) of the AAM calming down and the MJO progressing.  And it is progressing slowly, unfortunately. 

It appears that the combined MJO charts are doing a better job of conveying the lingering MJO 5 look the models have. Notice the slower progress out of Phase 5. This would fit with the continuing fire hose Pacific Jet pattern into early January.

[donsutherland1]

2019 began with unseasonable warmth in the Northeast. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 65°; Boston: 59°; Bridgeport: 58°; New York City: 58°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 61°; and, Providence: 58°.

On December 31, the MJO remained in Phase 5 for a December record 14th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.504 (RMM). That amplitude is somewhat higher than the 12/30-adjusted figure of 2.450. There are only 6 prior situations when the MJO remained in Phase 5 for at least two weeks. All of them occurred either during meteorological summer and/or meteorological fall.

The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in the next day or perhaps two days at a high to very high amplitude. However, its persistence in Phase 5 suggests some possibility for a delayed transition to Phase 6. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. As the MJO's progression has been consistently slower than modeled, there is some risk that it could remain locked in Phase 6 for a longer period of time.

Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive, but could have some fluctuations to negative values. The SOI has now been negative for 2 consecutive days for the first time since November 18-19. The AO has remained weakly positive. As the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could feature a predominant PNA+/AO- combination.

Before then, the first week of January could become among the 15 warmest starts on record for January in the New York City region. The odds of a moderate or significant snowstorm during that period are very low in the northern Mid-Atlantic region and southern New England. Smaller snowfall amounts are possible especially in central and upstate New York and New England.

The second week of the month could be cooler than the first week, but will likely remain warmer than normal, as the MJO slowly moves into Phase 7. The latest guidance coupled with historical data for the first week of January suggests that January's second week could average 4°-7° cooler than the first week in and around New York City. After the second week of January there could be potential for a more dramatic turn to colder weather, as happened during such El Niño winters as 1965-1966 and and 2004-05. Both winters featured similar or somewhat greater warmth than the start of 2019 on January 1.

The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which recently peaked, remains a wild card. While the polar vortex appears likely to split, considerable uncertainty exists about the evolution of events related to the SSW.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Tried to explain this a couple of days ago.  It has really struggled with the tropics since we moved into this 4-5-6 phase space.  I've noticed this is when it is at some of its lowest skill. 

 

The AAM and Pacific remain the biggest barriers to cold.  You still got one off chances for a storm next week, but in terms of meaningfully turning the pattern on it's head, it's still a function (to me) of the AAM calming down and the MJO progressing.  And it is progressing slowly, unfortunately. 

If this pattern change progression gets delayed/slowed beyond 1/21 then we will be depending on February and March to produce at that point. If we look at past history, that’s definitely not a good situation to recover from. Still certainly doable but boy oh boy talk about the definition of backloaded and coming from behind 

[495weatherguy]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this pattern change progression gets delayed/slowed beyond 1/21 then we will be depending on February and March to produce at that point. If we look at past history, that’s definitely not a good situation to recover from. Still certainly doable but boy oh boy talk about the definition of backloaded and coming from behind 

Very true,  we have had winter extend into late March----the worst scenario

[North and West]

Very true,  we have had winter extend into late March----the worst scenario

Agreed. After all of the snow here last March, my kids’ little league season was muddied up from the start, and my softball league was delayed from snowmelt and mud. I like snow up until March 10th; after that, dry it out and bring me Spring. I find the cold, wet Aprils we’ve been prone to recently to be insufferable.


.

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Isotherm

"The cyclonic energies associated with the stratospheric polar vortex split, propagating southwestward into SE Canada, are becoming evident in the troposphere. The principal reason why we're seeing modelling detect the not insignificant 50/50 tropospheric vortex lobe near Newfoundland in the medium range is courtesy of stratospheric modulation. The split vortex can be seen, reflected through z70/z50. This projects upon the 500mb layer quite well, and aids adjunctively in driving the -NAO signal post January 4th [this may reflect favorably on the 8th-10th, but I will say no more right now]. NAM diminution maintains for post January 5th, with tropospheric effects in the mid-latitudes quite rapid in the second week, coupled with amelioration in chi z200 divergence. ECMWF changes were quite positive today and expected. The long-term reversion depicted is still apocryphal and will continue to adjust. Again, not going to say anything more sensible weather wise, but the idea that most of January is "lost" will be wrong - I believe that quite strongly and confidently."

OKAY 88 I read every word you wrote here and I know by the tone it is good but for the life of me I might as well have been reading a GREEK textbook upside down and backwards as I don't have a clue as to what your post meant but I will take your word for it that it is " promising stuff " LOL

[SnoSki14]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this pattern change progression gets delayed/slowed beyond 1/21 then we will be depending on February and March to produce at that point. If we look at past history, that’s definitely not a good situation to recover from. Still certainly doable but boy oh boy talk about the definition of backloaded and coming from behind 

If all you care about is snowfall, which most on here do, then all it takes is 1-2 big storms to get us to normal/AN.

That can easily be achieved in 6 weeks. Would I prefer for this to occur from mid December to mid Feb, sure, but what can you do. 

[Dan76]

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

OKAY 88 I read every word you wrote here and I know by the tone it is good but for the life of me I might as well have been reading a GREEK textbook upside down and backwards as I don't have a clue as to what your post meant but I will take your word for it that it is " promising stuff " LOL

He's quoting someone else it's not 88 

 

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Isotherm

"The cyclonic energies associated with the stratospheric polar vortex split, propagating southwestward into SE Canada, are becoming evident in the troposphere. The principal reason why we're seeing modelling detect the not insignificant 50/50 tropospheric vortex lobe near Newfoundland in the medium range is courtesy of stratospheric modulation. The split vortex can be seen, reflected through z70/z50. This projects upon the 500mb layer quite well, and aids adjunctively in driving the -NAO signal post January 4th [this may reflect favorably on the 8th-10th, but I will say no more right now]. NAM diminution maintains for post January 5th, with tropospheric effects in the mid-latitudes quite rapid in the second week, coupled with amelioration in chi z200 divergence. ECMWF changes were quite positive today and expected. The long-term reversion depicted is still apocryphal and will continue to adjust. Again, not going to say anything more sensible weather wise, but the idea that most of January is "lost" will be wrong - I believe that quite strongly and confidently."

Appreciate his knowledge and efforts, but just to keep it in the no spin zone, Iso was incorrect on his December prediction. So things could turn around for him but as of now his seasonal forecast has missed the mark. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

13 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Appreciate his knowledge and efforts, but just to keep it in the no spin zone, Iso was incorrect on his December prediction. So things could turn around for him but as of now his seasonal forecast has missed the mark. 

He acknowledged the problem. The problem will soon turn into the solution.

[Stormlover74]

52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If all you care about is snowfall, which most on here do, then all it takes is 1-2 big storms to get us to normal/AN.

That can easily be achieved in 6 weeks. Would I prefer for this to occur from mid December to mid Feb, sure, but what can you do. 

I'd be fine with a Feb 83 blizzard repeat even if the rest of the winter sucks

[MJO812]

Upton for later on

"As a result expect a period of light rain/snow to develop in NYC where temps will be more likely to be above freezing, and light snow elsewhere that may transition to freezing rain toward morning as temps aloft warm more quickly than at the surface. Snowfall of about an inch is possible across a good deal of Long Island and southern CT. Areas that could see a light glaze of freezing rain during the transition include most of Long Island and NE NJ mainly west of the GSP."

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

He's quoting someone else it's not 88 

 

Thanks Dan but no matter who he quoted I was lost lol -------I will check out Isotherms posts 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thanks Dan but no matter who he quoted I was lost lol -------I will check out Isotherms posts 

I'm always lost when i read his posts lol

[Brasiluvsnow]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I'm always lost when i read his posts lol

Well now I don't feel so bad,,,jeez that was unreal ! Had that been my first day in a college class and Prof Isotherm started speaking like that I would have walKed right out and dropped that class LOL

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Well now I don't feel so bad,,,jeez that was unreal ! Had that been my first day in a college class and Prof Isotherm started speaking like that I would have walKed right out and dropped that class LOL

lol you guys are amusing   he's basically saying that the pattern is getting better going forwards (most significant of which is predicting a -NAO starting after Jan 4), but he isn't going to make any promises (meaning no calls for specific storms yet.)  But he hinted that he believes people who are saying most of January is lost are probably going to be wrong.

 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 11degs. AN.

EURO has 3" of Snow for the next 10 days(Jan.8/9 again).   GEFS is 50/50 on at least 3" by the 18th.

[Yanksfan]

Today's SOI has dropped to -9.42.

[LibertyBell]

Maybe we'll get our big storm after the big super moon total lunar eclipse Sunday night Jan 19.  Totality only lasts for an hour since the Moon is going to be in the northern part of the Earth's umbra (a "shallow" total lunar eclipse), and I sure hope no clouds mess this up.  

[the_other_guy]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this pattern change progression gets delayed/slowed beyond 1/21 then we will be depending on February and March to produce at that point. If we look at past history, that’s definitely not a good situation to recover from. Still certainly doable but boy oh boy talk about the definition of backloaded and coming from behind 

You are not factoring in one-offs, which happen with increased frequency in January.

When your team cant hit home runs, you start manufacturing runs with small ball.

 

6 inches already in the books. You start picking up a few inches here and there (possibly 1/8) you go into Feb with 10 or 12 inches in your back pocket. A run at 30 with a favorable pattern looks better.

 

I cant help but think how many people on here would feel better if the 6inches that fell in Nov fell in Dec. But the reality is, we are at the same point with either occurence.

Historically, El Nino Februarys can produce...or not. Pretty even split. 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if NYC can pull off only the 4th time not dropping below 20 degrees during the first half of the winter. The most recent time this happened was 2013. That was also following a record November snowstorm.

1	2019-01-15	24	15
2	2013-01-15	22	0
3	2002-01-15	20	0
-	1932-01-15	20	0

 

[495weatherguy]

26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

You are not factoring in one-offs, which happen with increased frequency in January.

When your team cant hit home runs, you start manufacturing runs with small ball.

 

6 inches already in the books. You start picking up a few inches here and there (possibly 1/8) you go into Feb with 10 or 12 inches in your back pocket. A run at 30 with a favorable pattern looks better.

 

I cant help but think how many people on here would feel better if the 6inches that fell in Nov fell in Dec. But the reality is, we are at the same point with either occurence.

Historically, El Nino Februarys can produce...or not. Pretty even split. 

 

 

 

Agree on all points.   I have this persistent feeling tho that this year is not snow filled.  Based on nothing more than personal experiences.   We have received a ton of snow in unfavorable seasons recently, I think we escape the big snows this year on LI

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if NYC can pull off only the 4th time not dropping below 20 degrees during the first half of the winter. The most recent time this happened was 2013.

1	2019-01-15	24	15
2	2013-01-15	22	0
3	2002-01-15	20	0
-	1932-01-15	20	0

 

I hope so.   Isn’t this the time of the year when the “January thaw” typically occurs(1st 2 weeks of Jan)?

[MJO812]

Euro still shows a little snow for the 8th

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Agree on all points.   I have this persistent feeling tho that this year is not snow filled.  Based on nothing more than personal experiences.   We have received a ton of snow in unfavorable seasons recently, I think we escape the big snows this year on LI

Name a few

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Name a few

I have a feeling he grew up in the 80s lol.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I hope so.   Isn’t this the time of the year when the “January thaw” typically occurs(1st 2 weeks of Jan)?

During El Niño or recent neutral winters, the mildest portion of January has been typically during the first half. La Nina’s can be colder early on like last winter was before turning warmer second half. So the timing of things so far has followed expectations based on climatology alone. There are also some similarities to the neutral 12-13 winter with the record November snow and winter shutting off until later in the season. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Euro still shows a little snow for the 8th

shows 4 -8 inches - at least its shown that in a couple of model runs recently - next week we will finally have some high pressure to the north with cold air feeding in  and a little blocking to our northeast to potentially force the system south of us

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190108-1800z.html