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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not going to see much change in this pattern yet until we lose that ridge north of Hawaii. It will probably take time since we are coming off such an anomalous +SOI December for an El Niño. 

Average SOI for last 30 days9.23

8D6A0C67-B2A5-452F-9BA4-57CA100AD443.thumb.png.9865a720df8949a214c4e43d97399459.png

 

2EF24976-03C3-495A-BD0B-475E9DC08445.thumb.png.9b8596555284fb8b9d78b3551df83005.png

 

 

 

94-95 may not have been such a horrible analog after all

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19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Some gefs have some snow for the area for the 3rd. Long shot but interesting.

Unless the low absolutely bombs and dynamically cools the column from aloft with strong UVVs (extremely unlikely) this is an all rain event, even up into New England. By the time it gets here, there is just no cold air anywhere around to pull from. Lost cause

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Did you see the mjo charts for the euro yesterday ?

Euro wanted the mjo to go back into 6. Now it travels into 7-8-cod. 

 

I rarely take an individual run of an individual model on it's own for verification.   Especially not in the RMM space.  The GEFS continues to weaken it's MJO signature, and has done poorly for weeks in handling the tropical aspect pattern, in large part rushing through phase spaces.  Big part of why it has been playing catch up to the warmer ideas the EC Ens has been projecting.  And to be clear, the EC Ens was too cool as well, but at least had the right idea taking this into the 4-5 space. 

 

Absent that, the ++AAM pattern makes getting this cold (and any durability) more than just an MJO function.   Hard to get too cold when you continually get this reinforcing +WPO.  To me, that's a major hurdle and why this timing is now pushed even further back.

 

As far as storms go, outside chance you can thread the needle next week, but that's an outside chance.

 

 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

94-95 may not have been such a horrible analog after all

This is a little different so far than any single El Niño analog. The pattern has a mix of some El NIno and La Niña characteristics. A La Niña ridge north of Hawaii and the El Niño ridge over North America. So this yields a fast split flow pattern. It has left North America dominated by Pacific air masses. May take some time to see improvements since there are several moving parts so to speak. With a little luck,we get the 2nd half more Niño-like winter transition that we have all been expecting.

 

9EB43423-A7C6-4AB6-9025-2E0278B68D83.gif.b1d191c01ec50568f9e860a0766121d5.gif1AA07327-0C53-4064-B76D-909FB3671C6C.gif.39ea2af088699f2eb0c93a0b5e823737.gif

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HM

"By the end of week 1 into week 2, we will see things flip. Arctic high over the pole with a ring of subpolar lows. This high forms between the splitting vortices. Crazy to think that this vortex split/chaos up above creates a rather textbook pressure appearance (z-cells)"

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4 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

This is incorrect.  The GFS suite has had a rough time of late with the MJO, in large part why it was showing all of this cold for late December through early January.  That has continually been kicked back and weakened with time.  After over-amplifying the P7 look dramatically, it caved again this week.

 

People need to look beyond the RMM charts if they want to diagnose what the MJO is doing.

Interesting how the EPS and GEFS flipped long range biases since November. The EPS was too warm longer range during November. While the colder GEFS was closer reality during week 2. Since December, The milder EPS has been the way to go.

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Interesting how the EPS and GEFS flipped long range biases since November. The EPS was too warm longer range during November. While the colder GEFS was closer reality during week 2. Since December, The milder EPS has been the way to go.

 

It's been tied to the MJO since Novie. I buy the the GEFS moving forward because the MJO collapse by the EPS seems highly unlikely, it's been correcting everyday. 

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been tied to the MJO since Novie. I buy the the GEFS moving forward because the MJO collapse by the EPS seems highly unlikely, it's been correcting everyday. 

The GEFS has been too cold to be reliable recently. Notice how it missed the current warm up from a week ago. I wouldn’t get too hung up on MJO timing or specifics since the VP anomalies have been literally off the charts in phase 5. It could mean that that MJO 5 look will linger longer than you would expect even if it continues to propagate beyond this phase. 

Verification

A949B98F-2446-4F3F-94B2-FCE6D40244F7.png

Forecast

D207B807-C1BB-489D-A1DE-8F5B85C08D12.png

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GEFS has been too cold to be reliable recently. Notice how it missed the current warm up from a week ago. I wouldn’t get too hung up on MJO timing or specifics since the VP anomalies have been literally off the charts in phase 5. It could mean that that MJO 5 look will linger longer than you would expect even if it continues to propagate beyond this phase. 

Oh no question the effects will linger for a bit. MJO will move into phase 7 by beginning of Jan's second week, but we probably won't see the results of that until the last third of the month. 

The pattern isn't getting pushed back, it's just that guidance is trying to change things too quickly. We've seen that time and time again in cold & warm weather patterns. 

Coldest weather of the season should also occur in the Jan 20 to early Feb timeframe.

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh no question the effects will linger for a bit. MJO will move into phase 7 by beginning of Jan's second week, but we probably won't see the results of that until the last third of the month. 

The pattern isn't getting pushed back, it's just that guidance is trying to change things too quickly. We've seen that time and time again in cold & warm weather patterns. 

Coldest weather of the season should also occur in the Jan 20 to early Feb timeframe.

We will know a real change is occurring when day 8-10 solutions stop correcting warmer the closer we get. I am not even talking about anything the models are showing day 11-15. Day 8-10 errors just get compounded in that time frame.

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The exceptionally wet year of 2018 is ending on a rainy note. Rain is falling across the region. This afternoon, rainfall at Louisville and Pittsburg brought 2018's total precipitation past those cities' previous yearly records. This evening, it is likely that this year's total precipitation in New York City will exceed the 65.11" that fell in 1989 to make 2018 New York City's 4th wettest year on record. Records in New York City go back to 1869.

On December 30, the MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 13th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.442 (RMM). This breaks the December record for most consecutive days in Phase 5. The previous record was set during the December 7-18, 1994 period. The amplitude is down from the 12/29-adjusted figure of 2.554.

The latest EPS guidance continues to portray persistent ridging in the East in the 11-15-day period with a classic trough in the West/ridge in the East pattern at 360 hours. However, its recent struggles with the MJO imply greater uncertainty than is usual even for an extended timeframe. The fairly gradual progression of a continued high amplitude MJO will shape the pattern evolution.

The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in the next 2 days at a high to very high amplitude. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. As the MJO's progression has been consistently slower than modeled, there is some risk that it could remain locked in Phase 6 for a longer period of time.

Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive, but could have some fluctuations to negative values. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could feature a predominant PNA+/AO- combination.

The likelihood of a moderate or greater snowstorm in the general New York City area during the first week of January is very low. Just 2/31 of the 4" or greater January snowstorms in New York City occurred when the MJO was in Phase 6. During El Niño winters, no such snowstorms occurred when the MJO was in Phase 6 where it will likely be perhaps into the beginning of the second week in January. The probability of such a snowstorm will increase once the MJO moves into Phase 7. Overall, the first 7-10 days of January will likely wind up warmer than normal in the region. The odds of a moderate or significant snowstorm during that period are low.

As December concludes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -0.42. The monthly SOI average was +9.14. Overall the SOI was positive for 45 days during the November-December period, including a stretch of 38 out of 41 days. That is extraordinary given the ongoing El Niño. During El Niño events, the SOI has averaged 16.4 days with positive values during the November-December period. During La Niña events, it has averaged 46.2 positive days during the same period.

However, when it comes to strongly positive days (+10.00 or above), there remains broad separation from November-December 2018 and La Niña winters. During November-December 2018, the SOI was +10.00 or above on 17 days vs. the El Niño average of just 4.3. However, the La Niña average is 31.0 such days.

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The exceptionally wet year of 2018 is ending on a rainy note. Rain is falling across the region. This afternoon, rainfall at Louisville and Pittsburg brought 2018's total precipitation past those cities' previous yearly records. This evening, it is likely that this year's total precipitation in New York City will exceed the 65.11" that fell in 1989 to make 2018 New York City's 4th wettest year on record. Records in New York City go back to 1869.

On December 30, the MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 13th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.442 (RMM). This breaks the December record for most consecutive days in Phase 5. The previous record was set during the December 7-18, 1994 period. The amplitude is down from the 12/28-adjusted figure of 2.554.

The latest EPS guidance continues to portray persistent ridging in the East in the 11-15-day period with a classic trough in the West/ridge in the East pattern at 360 hours. However, its recent struggles with the MJO imply greater uncertainty than is usual even for an extended timeframe. The fairly gradual progression of a continued high amplitude MJO will shape the pattern evolution.

The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in the next 2 days at a high to very high amplitude. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. As the MJO's progression has been consistently slower than modeled, there is some risk that it could remain locked in Phase 6 for a longer period of time.

Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive, but could have some fluctuations to negative values. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could feature a predominant PNA+/AO- combination.

The likelihood of a moderate or greater snowstorm in the general New York City area during the first week of January is very low. Just 2/31 of the 4" or greater January snowstorms in New York City occurred when the MJO was in Phase 6. During El Niño winters, no such snowstorms occurred when the MJO was in Phase 6 where it will likely be perhaps into the beginning of the second week in January. The probability of such a snowstorm will increase once the MJO moves into Phase 7. Overall, the first 7-10 days of January will likely wind up warmer than normal in the region. The odds of a moderate or significant snowstorm during that period are low.

As December concludes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -0.42. The monthly SOI average was +9.14. Overall the SOI was positive for 45 days during the November-December period, including a stretch of 38 out of 41 days. That is extraordinary given the ongoing El Niño. During El Niño events, the SOI has averaged 16.4 days with positive values during the November-December period. During La Niña events, it has averaged 46.2 positive days during the same period.

However, when it comes to strongly positive days (+10.00 or above), there remains broad separation from November-December 2018 and La Niña winters. During November-December 2018, the SOI was +10.00 or above on 17 days vs. the El Niño average of just 4.3. However, the La Niña average is 31.0 such days.

the way things look right now January will end up above normal both temp and precip - transient cold shots timed perfectly with southern stream interaction can produce snowstorms around here in January -temporary blocking and  or 50/50 lows help too - in fact it would be to our advantage if the northern stream doesn't dominate because  then you end up with a suppressed pattern and have to rely on any clippers coming down the pike and hope they intensify as they hit the coast ……….

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12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yea I remember my doors got stuck shut with that one lol, 3-6 inches of sleet across our area.  Both that and the VD7 storm were okay because they never changed to rain (maybe freezing rain just at the end.)

But they were pathetic storms for our area in terms of accumulations. The whole winter stunk. 

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23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

But they were pathetic storms for our area in terms of accumulations. The whole winter stunk. 

February 2007 was a real oddball month. It was pretty rare to have a -7 February with below normal snowfall. We went +6.3 in February 2017 with above normal snowfall.

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February 2007 was a real oddball month. It was pretty rare to have a -7 February with below normal snowfall. We went +6.3 in February 2017 with above normal snowfall.

Yeah, a reminder it can get real cold and still not snow. I believe both the VD storm and the March storm had trouble with a warm nose of air off the coast, costing us any serious accumulations. Of course travel was still treacherous and we got school closures as a result, and if IIRC a massive rainstorm later that was so bad we had to use a snow day.  I can remember Henry Margusity quoting my report of massive sleet during the March storm.

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Flood Advisory


Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
959 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018

NJC027-037-041-PAC011-025-077-089-095-010830-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0002.190101T0259Z-190101T0830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-Berks PA-Lehigh PA-Carbon PA-Monroe PA-
Northampton PA-
959 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
  Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...
  Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania...
  Carbon County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 330 AM EST.

* At 957 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain moving from 
  to east across the area. Precipitation rates around one inch per
  hour have been reported in the heavier rain bands. Given the wet
  antecedent conditions from recent heavy rain in the area, runoff
  production is very efficient, resulting in rises on small streams
  and ponding of water in areas of poor drainage. An areal flood
  advisory has therefore been issued.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Allentown, Reading, Easton, Hazleton, Morristown, Port Jervis,
  Newton, Lehighton, Montague, Mount Pocono, Bethlehem, Dover,
  Madison, Hopatcong, Forks, Florham Park, Emmaus, East Hanover,
  Wyomissing and Kinnelon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4109 7450 4097 7428 4072 7439
      4066 7453 4076 7456 4072 7474 4078 7490
      4045 7553 4014 7587 4049 7643 4057 7602
      4073 7577 4091 7599 4110 7575 4124 7540
      4125 7513 4115 7515 4108 7503 4135 7475
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20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I was working in new Hyde park at the time and there was a big difference between there and South Wantagh. I don’t think we ever went above freezing there with a bunch of ice accretion and it changed to plain rain at my house. I don’t think we have to worry about a repeat of that winter.

It was interesting because once you got east of Oceanside there was a change to above freezing while we barely remained below freezing (31 here).  It actually matches what happened in Jan 1994 when it went above freezing further eastward on the south shore while the western part of the south shore stayed below freezing during that historic ice storm.

 

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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:
 

Flood Advisory



Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
959 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018

NJC027-037-041-PAC011-025-077-089-095-010830-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0002.190101T0259Z-190101T0830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-Berks PA-Lehigh PA-Carbon PA-Monroe PA-
Northampton PA-
959 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
  Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...
  Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania...
  Carbon County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 330 AM EST.

* At 957 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain moving from 
  to east across the area. Precipitation rates around one inch per
  hour have been reported in the heavier rain bands. Given the wet
  antecedent conditions from recent heavy rain in the area, runoff
  production is very efficient, resulting in rises on small streams
  and ponding of water in areas of poor drainage. An areal flood
  advisory has therefore been issued.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Allentown, Reading, Easton, Hazleton, Morristown, Port Jervis,
  Newton, Lehighton, Montague, Mount Pocono, Bethlehem, Dover,
  Madison, Hopatcong, Forks, Florham Park, Emmaus, East Hanover,
  Wyomissing and Kinnelon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4109 7450 4097 7428 4072 7439
      4066 7453 4076 7456 4072 7474 4078 7490
      4045 7553 4014 7587 4049 7643 4057 7602
      4073 7577 4091 7599 4110 7575 4124 7540
      4125 7513 4115 7515 4108 7503 4135 7475

Yeah we had a lot of rain tonight, I'm still in Carbon County and we got about 2 inches of rain here.  It let up a bit around midnight but still raining and foggy.

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18 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I had 5 inches of sleet with temps in the teens in vday

We had blocking from the second week of February thru the third week of April that winter lol.  As a matter of fact, the first three weeks of April were colder than the first three weeks of January, when it hit 70 (I dont think it ever hit 70 in April that year!)  But of course we somehow ended up with suppression in April (with snow in the Carolinas!) and then we had the Tax Day noreaster which was a coastal hugger (it passed just south of JFK with pressure near 960 mb I think) and got tons of rain and wind from that.

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6 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah, a reminder it can get real cold and still not snow. I believe both the VD storm and the March storm had trouble with a warm nose of air off the coast, costing us any serious accumulations. Of course travel was still treacherous and we got school closures as a result, and if IIRC a massive rainstorm later that was so bad we had to use a snow day.  I can remember Henry Margusity quoting my report of massive sleet during the March storm.

That massive storm may have been the Tax Day noreaster.  The first three weeks of April were colder than the first three weeks of January that year and it hit 70 in January and never hit 70 that April lol.  As a matter of fact, it hit 70 on the 11 year anniversary of the Jan 1996 blizzard!

 

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The first 8 days of the new year are averaging 44degs., or a solid 10degs. AN.   The 06Z GFS has no BN till the 15th.!

EURO is a No Show, No Snow again for the next 10 days.(after embarassing itself a third time with a one run blowup)     GEFS looks pitiful, with a 35% chance of at least 3" by the 17th.

With Dec. in the books, and this projection, Jan. 09 to Feb. 28 must be -3.2 to get winter to end Normal.   The first BN 5-Day Period on the CFS is centered on the 23rd!   Actually has 3 BN days in the next 30.    Could slip in some 'singlelarities' so maybe 5BN's.

And oh yes, it is a windy 58* now, up 8.5 from midnite.   8:45am   >>>60.0!

At 1pm it was M. Sunny, breezy and 56*---as the Polar Bears entered the water.

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