January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

4 inches of sleet here with that one

Yea I remember my doors got stuck shut with that one lol, 3-6 inches of sleet across our area.  Both that and the VD7 storm were okay because they never changed to rain (maybe freezing rain just at the end.)

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yea I remember my doors got stuck shut with that one lol, 3-6 inches of sleet across our area.  Both that and the VD7 storm were okay because they never changed to rain (maybe freezing rain just at the end.)

I was working in new Hyde park at the time and there was a big difference between there and South Wantagh. I don’t think we ever went above freezing there with a bunch of ice accretion and it changed to plain rain at my house. I don’t think we have to worry about a repeat of that winter.

[bluewave]

NYC has a shot at its 6th year since 2000 with a 60 degree temperature during the first week of January. What a difference from last year when the high for the week was only 30 degrees.

 

1	2007-01-07	72	0
2	2000-01-07	64	0
3	2012-01-07	62	0
-	2008-01-07	62	0
5	2005-01-07	60	0
6	2004-01-07	58	0
7	2015-01-07	56	0
8	2014-01-07	55	0
9	2011-01-07	53	0
10	2017-01-07	52	0
11	2006-01-07	50	0
-	2003-01-07	50	0
13	2016-01-07	46	0
-	2013-01-07	46	0
15	2009-01-07	43	0
-	2002-01-07	43	0
-	2001-01-07	43	0
18	2010-01-07	40	0
19	2018-01-07	30	0

 

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning-Dec 31,  fwiw... i added my comments to the 12/26 second post on this 11 day period upcoming.  It's there if you wish to review.  No major change.

[NittanyWx]

Not a good look with this westward propagating ERW if you're hoping for cold anytime soon.  High AAM base state remains, which means we're settling more into a P5 forcing look for now.  I still like that post Jan 5-6 Jan period for a coastal, but if it's anything it's a thread the needle situation.  The tropic setup is just not correct for major cold air transport to accompany it.

 

Other than that, SSW remains a red herring for now.  Way, way too much chatter and "talking your book" went on with that feature which I've noted already.  Tropics and AAM running the show.

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Not a good look with this westward propagating ERW if you're hoping for cold anytime soon.  High AAM base state remains, which means we're settling more into a P5 forcing look for now.  I still like that post Jan 5-6 Jan period for a coastal, but if it's anything it's a thread the needle situation.  The tropic setup is just not correct for major cold air transport to accompany it.

 

Other than that, SSW remains a red herring for now.  Way, way too much chatter and "talking your book" went on with that feature which I've noted already.  Tropics and AAM running the show.

My guess is that we will need to wait until the MJO moves into Phase 7 for material improvements. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yea I remember my doors got stuck shut with that one lol, 3-6 inches of sleet across our area.  Both that and the VD7 storm were okay because they never changed to rain (maybe freezing rain just at the end.)

I had 5 inches of sleet with temps in the teens in vday

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

My guess is that we will need to wait until the MJO moves into Phase 7 for material improvements. 

Looks like we will be in 6 pretty soon and then 7 by mid month

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Not a good look with this westward propagating ERW if you're hoping for cold anytime soon.  High AAM base state remains, which means we're settling more into a P5 forcing look for now.  I still like that post Jan 5-6 Jan period for a coastal, but if it's anything it's a thread the needle situation.  The tropic setup is just not correct for major cold air transport to accompany it.

 

Other than that, SSW remains a red herring for now.  Way, way too much chatter and "talking your book" went on with that feature which I've noted already.  Tropics and AAM running the show.

Thanks.

In your opinion, do you think the flip to a colder pattern will still occur, or are you of the belief that this is the weather for the lionshare of winter?

[CIK62]

I am going to track the Ball Drop conditions starting today, at 120hrs. out, using the GFS: 

120hrs    >>> 52   Light Rain.

114hrs    >>> 56   Rain                 Next 7 days averaging 45degs., or about 10/11degs. AN, through the 3rd.

108hrs    >>> 50   Light Rain

102hrs    >>> 46    Hvy. Rain

   96hrs   >>> 59    Rain

   90hrs   >>> 59    Light Rain       Next 7 days averaging 42degs., or about 7/8degs. AN, through the 4th.

   84hrs   >>> 58    Light Rain

   78hrs   >>> 54    Rain

   72hrs   >>> 56    Light Rain

   66hrs   >>> 53    Light Rain       Next 7 days averaging 44degs., or about 10degs. AN, through the 5th.

   60hrs   >>> 54    Rain

   54hrs   >>> 54    Rain

   48hrs   >>> 56    Rain

   42hrs   >>> 55    Hvy. Rain        Next 7 days averaging 43degs., or about 9degs. AN, through the 6th.   Taken literally, we would have 1 32* day in a 19 day period{12/20-1/6|.

   36hrs   >>> 55    Rain

   30hrs   >>> 54    Rain

   24hrs   >>> 54    Rain

   18hrs   >>> 53    Rain               Next 7 days averaging 43degs., or about 9/10degs. AN, through the 7th.    (Next 30 on CFS  18AN  12BN)

   12hrs   >>> 53    Hvy. Rain

   06hrs   >>> 50    Rain                       Final Prediction        Actual by me at midnight    49.5*, Lt. Rain, Ground Hugging Fog.    Made for strange         fireworks display here.     Shells exploding just above the fog, and illuminating it.

[NittanyWx]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks.

In your opinion, do you think the flip to a colder pattern will still occur, or are you of the belief that this is the weather for the lionshare of winter?

I do think it will occur in time, but I've been rewarded every single time I've preached delay.  I don't see a reason to rush things, and with MJO support becoming a lot less clear now, we're once again in a less favorable look than we (the met community at large) thought.  This Indian Ocean convection is a major problem, and I don't believe most of us meteorologists are skilled enough to be able to discern what a westward propagating ERW does to the pattern better than these models.   I think my own comments mete that out.  

To me, the main thing I'm noting is this high AAM base state.  We need that to go away before we can start more seriously talking about sustainability in any notable cold.  I'm a bit surprised at how bad the Pacific looks right now.  That'll take some time to undo.

By the way, I was never of the opinion that the SSW guaranteed cold in December in January.  The basis for my view was and has been MJO.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I do think it will occur in time, but I've been rewarded every single time I've preached delay.  I don't see a reason to rush things, and with MJO support becoming a lot less clear now, we're once again in a less favorable look than we (the met community at large) thought.  This Indian Ocean convection is a major problem, and I don't believe most of us meteorologists are skilled enough to be able to discern what a westward propagating ERW does to the pattern better than these models.   I think my own comments mete that out.  

To me, the main thing I'm noting is this high AAM base state.  We need that to go away before we can start more seriously talking about sustainability in any notable cold.  I'm a bit surprised at how bad the Pacific looks right now.  That'll take some time to undo.

By the way, I was never of the opinion that the SSW guaranteed cold in December in January.  The basis for my view was and has been MJO.

Thanks. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

I continue to like the period to begin sometime around Jan 10. My target period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20.

 

We are currently in p6 and should heading around into p8 over the next 2 weeks. We will have to wait for the p6 lag to bleed off so even though we head into p7 I think the transition will begin close to the 10th.

 

 

 

After that the alterations on the EPS day 9 - 14 vs yesterdays d 10 - 15 are already heading towards the GEFS which I like better. 

Hopefully these maps downloaded..

 

 

I don`t agree with the EURO taking the MJO into the null p after p7. The strat began to warm back on Dec 20 and it was similar to the warming that took place on Feb 20 earlier this year. The effects from that event ran from March 10 - April 20.

So this year the SSW event is a full 2 months earlier ( no 2 events are the same ) but the modeling looks like it wants to develop 3 vortexes.  One in Europe , One in Eurasia and One in the N/E N/A. 

These tend to run for about 60 days ( the caveat is where are they splitting ) .  I think this one works. 

 

[NJwx85]

Looks like another 1-2” of rain tonight with locally higher amounts.

[NEG NAO]

22 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

I continue to like the period to begin sometime around Jan 10. My target period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20.

 

We are currently in p6 and should heading around into p8 over the next 2 weeks. We will have to wait for the p6 lag to bleed off so even though we head into p7 I think the transition will begin close to the 10th.

 

 

 

 

 

After that the alterations on the EPS day 9 - 14 vs yesterdays d 10 - 15 are already heading towards the GEFS which I like better. 

Hopefully these maps downloaded..

 

 

 

 

I don`t agree with the EURO taking the MJO into the null p after p7. The strat began to warm back on Dec 20 and it was similar to the warming that took place on Feb 20 earlier this year. The effects from that event ran from March 10 - April 20.

So this year the SSW event is a full 2 months earlier ( no 2 events are the same ) but the modeling looks like it wants to develop 3 vortexes.  One in Europe , One in Eurasia and One in the N/E N/A. 

These tend to run for about 60 days ( the caveat is where are they splitting ) .  I think this one works. 

 

Betting against the EURO ? Always a risky proposition IMO.

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

I continue to like the period to begin sometime around Jan 10. My target period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20.

 

We are currently in p6 and should heading around into p8 over the next 2 weeks. We will have to wait for the p6 lag to bleed off so even though we head into p7 I think the transition will begin close to the 10th.

 

 

 

After that the alterations on the EPS day 9 - 14 vs yesterdays d 10 - 15 are already heading towards the GEFS which I like better. 

Hopefully these maps downloaded..

 

 

I don`t agree with the EURO taking the MJO into the null p after p7. The strat began to warm back on Dec 20 and it was similar to the warming that took place on Feb 20 earlier this year. The effects from that event ran from March 10 - April 20.

So this year the SSW event is a full 2 months earlier ( no 2 events are the same ) but the modeling looks like it wants to develop 3 vortexes.  One in Europe , One in Eurasia and One in the N/E N/A. 

These tend to run for about 60 days ( the caveat is where are they splitting ) .  I think this one works. 

 

 

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Betting against the EURO ? Always a risky proposition IMO.

He rarely bets against the euro mjo progression but others are doing it also.

The Euro has been struggling with the mjo.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Betting against the EURO ? Always a risky proposition IMO.

Euro finally moves the mjo into 8 and then cod

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro finally moves the mjo into 8 and then cod

COD is not such a bad location for the MJO - some of our MECS have occurred while in the COD.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

COD is not such a bad location for the MJO - some of our MECS have occurred while in the COD.

Agree

Lets hope it it goes  back into 7 8 or 1 when it comes out.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Betting against the EURO ? Always a risky proposition IMO.

 

 

And here is it`s new MJO which now takes it into P8. ( Yesterday`s wanted to take it into the Null ) . 

 

 

So it looks like it wants to come around to where the VP 200  anomalies want to line this up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Solid.

 

So this looks really good 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Solid.

 

 

So this looks really good 

 

 

looks like suppression pattern to me with most of the metro in below normal precip with the northern jet dominating the patttern and above precip confined to the southeast U.S.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

looks like suppression pattern to me with most of the metro in below normal precip with the northern jet dominating the patttern and above precip confined to the southeast U.S.

 

Always Possible. Cold does not always beget snow , especially when the vortex presses in.

You may have to deal with cold and dry for a bit , but there should be chances when the vortex slightly releases that you will get your heights to rise in the east. 

I will take my chances and build HP through H/B down into the N/E and see what comes of it. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

looks like suppression pattern to me with most of the metro in below normal precip with the northern jet dominating the patttern and above precip confined to the southeast U.S.

Quite possible but too early to say. Like pb said , I rather take my chances with the cold pattern.

[MJO812]

What a storm on the Gfs  for sne

Nice Miller b

It's anyone's guess right now the track but I'm loving the confluence to the north. Mjo will be favorable by the time this storm happens ( if it does )

Cmc shredded this storm.

Long duration storm also

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

52 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

looks like suppression pattern to me with most of the metro in below normal precip with the northern jet dominating the patttern and above precip confined to the southeast U.S.

A weak Phase 8 amplitude can introduce cold and wetter conditions. The CPC will eventually see that it's no different for this pattern.

[SnowGoose69]

29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What a storm on the Gfs  for sne

Nice Miller b

It's anyone's guess right now the track but I'm loving the confluence to the north. Mjo will be favorable by the time this storm happens ( if it does )

Cmc shredded this storm.

Long duration storm also

The track makes no sense really.  The disturbance would have to eject out with perfect timing.  

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The track makes no sense really.  The disturbance would have to eject out with perfect timing.  

Nice banana high to the north

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

 

He rarely bets against the euro mjo progression but others are doing it also.

The Euro has been struggling with the mjo.

This is incorrect.  The GFS suite has had a rough time of late with the MJO, in large part why it was showing all of this cold for late December through early January.  That has continually been kicked back and weakened with time.  After over-amplifying the P7 look dramatically, it caved again this week.

 

People need to look beyond the RMM charts if they want to diagnose what the MJO is doing.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

This is incorrect.  The GFS suite has had a rough time of late with the MJO, in large part why it was showing all of this cold for late December through early January.  That has continually been kicked back and weakened with time.  After over-amplifying the P7 look dramatically, it caved again this week.

 

People need to look beyond the RMM charts if they want to diagnose what the MJO is doing.

Did you see the mjo charts for the euro yesterday ?

Euro wanted the mjo to go back into 6. Now it travels into 7-8-cod.