NittanyWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 38 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: To those always wondering why long range forecasters say above average snowfall year in and year out... what do you see on Twitter and click more? A headline that says below average snowfall expected in the Northeast or “Bitter Cold and Snowy Winter for the Northeast Expected”? This is why people have to look at the track record of the person calling for the brutal cold. To us winter sports enthusiasts, this is peak season! One massive storm doesn't make the season! It isn't even cold enough to make snow at night currently in Southern NY and southern New England. That's why you gotta pick and choose carefully who you follow. Echo chamber is real. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: That's why you gotta pick and choose carefully who you follow. Echo chamber is real. Exactly. And as per my earlier post, it's not just the clickbait folks trying to make ad money, although they're the worst - it's also the decent percentage of folks on weather boards like this that likely suffer from a bit of confirmation bias, i.e., letting their desire for snow influence what they predict. 90% or more of the folks on these boards are here for the snow and are more likely to predict snowier than normal winters - just go back and look at the seasonal forecasts by non-pros in particular - almost all went above normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: All I know is, until the roaring Pacific Jet driven pattern ends, we can maybe sneak in a moderate snow event at best in between milder than normal conditions. The MJO being stuck isn’t good-we need it to move to a more favorable state. Will it turn around eventually-probably, but we’ll need to do some serious catching up to get everyone above or well above average snow. Maybe we can get a beast like the Jan 2016 storm but you can’t rely on something like that. This ruined another recent winter for us-16-17? And I remember it not being predicted well in advance... It raged for most of the winter and dumped record snows on CA while we torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This ruined another recent winter for us-16-17? And I remember it not being predicted well in advance... It raged for most of the winter and dumped record snows on CA while we torched. We had a good winter 16-17. Our area specifically was over 133% of average snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This ruined another recent winter for us-16-17? And I remember it not being predicted well in advance... It raged for most of the winter and dumped record snows on CA while we torched. We got over 40 inches that winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: We had a good winter 16-17. Our area specifically was over 133% of average snowfall. yeah, can't remember the exact one but it was fairly recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 hours ago, NittanyWx said: I think the 8th/9th is the best chance we got here as far as snowfall through the next couple of weeks. I don't hate the look in theory, front end thump with overrunning and a wedge cold with HP in Quebec. But it will not stay as snow. It's really a front end thump and changeover scenario to me if we can get something. Still a week away though. Not going to be much of a front end dump if the primary low tracks to Michigan. We need things to dig more and then a few other things to fall in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not going to be much of a front end dump if the primary low tracks to Michigan. We need things to dig more and then a few other things to fall in place. Really not biting on anything solid until after mid-month. It'll be tough even in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Really not biting on anything solid until after mid-month. It'll be tough even in SNE. Just not a lot of cold, arctic air in North America like you would expect for this time of year. The real cold has been isolated to Central and Northern Canada and even there it has largely been above normal except for around Hudson Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not going to be much of a front end dump if the primary low tracks to Michigan. We need things to dig more and then a few other things to fall in place. That system will likely track well north of what is currently shown on the Euro/GFS or it will end up way south. It’s somewhat in no man’s land right now. It’s basically a too amped version of 1/27/94. If we get a weaker wave everyone snows with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That system will likely track well north of what is currently shown on the Euro/GFS or it will end up way south. It’s somewhat in no man’s land right now. It’s basically a too amped version of 1/27/94. If we get a weaker wave everyone snows with that The blocking looks pretty good for next week's storm. I wouldnt be shocked to see it trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The blocking looks pretty good for next week's storm. I wouldnt be shocked to see it trend south. need to get it to within 4-5 days...models have shown this solution for 3 weeks only to verify as a cutter with 50 degree plus temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: need to get it to within 4-5 days...models have shown this solution for 3 weeks only to verify as a cutter with 50 degree plus temps. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The EPS absolutely refuses to budge. Still shows a horrible Pacific pattern blasting in right until the end of its new run. We have to consider the possibility now that the Pacific is still awful after mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The EPS absolutely refuses to budge. Still shows a horrible Pacific pattern blasting in right until the end of its new run. We have to consider the possibility now that the Pacific is still awful after mid-month Maybe but the eps might be wrong here considering the mjo and other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Maybe but the eps might be wrong here considering the mjo and other factors. It’s not budging an inch, and the pattern depicted at the end of its run is showing no signs of breaking down, by then we will be beyond mid January. I guess we’ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS absolutely refuses to budge. Still shows a horrible Pacific pattern blasting in right until the end of its new run. We have to consider the possibility now that the Pacific is still awful after mid-month It’s probably gonna bust due to the mjo and the strat impacts downwelling into the troposphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS absolutely refuses to budge. Still shows a horrible Pacific pattern blasting in right until the end of its new run. We have to consider the possibility now that the Pacific is still awful after mid-month thoughts on whether that can be overcome with a good -AO and/or -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, dmillz25 said: It’s probably gonna bust due to the mjo and the strat impacts downwelling into the troposphere the SSW event is definitely a wild card here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: thoughts on whether that can be overcome with a good -AO and/or -NAO? Not a chance. It would be like late December 01 when we did get a strongly -AO and NAO but it didn’t matter because the pacific was terrible. December 1996 was similar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Not a chance. It would be like late December 01 when we did get a strongly -AO and NAO but it didn’t matter because the pacific was terrible. December 1996 was similar ugh...those are 2 hideous comparisions. I do feel we could on track for a ratter given how everything keeps getting pushed back and back...I'll give it a few more weeks before jumping ship.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Not going to be much of a front end dump if the primary low tracks to Michigan. We need things to dig more and then a few other things to fall in place. That's why I've been calling it an outside threat. Not saying this is a great look overall. Skinniest kid at fat camp kind of analogy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: It’s probably gonna bust due to the mjo and the strat impacts downwelling into the troposphere Huh? The EPS shuts off dateline convection which, based on recent VP trends, does not seem that farfetched. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: Huh? The EPS shuts off dateline convection which, based on recent VP trends, does not seem that farfetched. So doesn't that mean we have to kiss most of January goodbye? It sure sounds like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 55 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: So doesn't that mean we have to kiss most of January goodbye? It sure sounds like that. Based off what? Everyone is worrying for no reason just like last year and 2016. Every winter forecast had a change by January and it looks like that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: Huh? The EPS shuts off dateline convection which, based on recent VP trends, does not seem that farfetched. Eps is the only one doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 hours ago, NittanyWx said: Huh? The EPS shuts off dateline convection which, based on recent VP trends, does not seem that farfetched. The eps has been killing off the mjo too soon just to correct later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Based off what? Everyone is worrying for no reason just like last year and 2016. Every winter forecast had a change by January and it looks like that will happen. depends on what you are worrying about. If you're looking for a long lasting winter, that idea is close to dead. December was a torch nationwide and the first 2 weeks of January don't look all that much different-sure we could get a HECS or a snowy/cold siege, but the pattern change has yet to materialize, hence the moaning and groaning.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is the only one doing this. 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: depends on what you are worrying about. If you're looking for a long lasting winter, that idea is close to dead. December was a torch nationwide and the first 2 weeks of January don't look all that much different-sure we could get a HECS or a snowy/cold siege, but the pattern change has yet to materialize, hence the moaning and groaning.... you forgot to add that no one has a clue as too what is actually going to happen the rest of the way...……... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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