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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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The trends of the HRRR has been to increase QPF and throw the moisture a little further NW tomorrow morning.  Some snow falling in southern Harnett and Johnston counties, taken verbatim.

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8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The trends of the HRRR has been to increase QPF and throw the moisture a little further NW tomorrow morning.  Some snow falling in southern Harnett and Johnston counties, taken verbatim.

Me and downeastnc have a bet riding that we wouldnt see any more winter weather. He is all happy that the models are trending wetter. I still say it will be hard to get accum snow north of highway 70 in the coastal plains unless the models really blow up the precip on the NW side.

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3 hours ago, SouthernVAwx said:

Worth noting the 12z GFS builds on a severe threat for Sunday evening.

I don't post often as I am still learning (and realize everyone is thinking about Tues/Wed right now), but I believe next weekend is going to be a serious situation...starting Saturday 3/9 and extending into Sunday.  Not good on the heels of yesterday. 

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3 minutes ago, drscottsmith said:

I don't post often as I am still learning (and realize everyone is thinking about Tues/Wed right now), but I believe next weekend is going to be a serious situation...starting Saturday 3/9 and extending into Sunday.  Not good on the heels of yesterday. 

I am so f$%&ing  tired of this rain.  My God, we could go 3 weeks without a drop and it wouldn't bother me..

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nam showing the tongue of precip over clt now, similar to the hrrr. precip shield is healthier and further inland as well but looks like ran in eastern sc.

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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think a lot of folks are going to see some surprise flurries in the morning.

Flurries in early March, after all the LR model teases for the past two months, is equivalent to a kick in the nads.

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25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Can it flurry at 40 degrees!? Go figure the moisture comes hard NW and my high tomorrow is 52! Models overdoing the cold, yet again!

It's been a winner of a season bud!!! Don't ya just love living in the SE  when ( you love winter weather)!

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43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Can it flurry at 40 degrees!? Go figure the moisture comes hard NW and my high tomorrow is 52! Models overdoing the cold, yet again!

it did in Las Vegas at 50 degrees, so it's possible.

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think a lot of folks are going to see some surprise flurries in the morning.

It really wont take much to turn this into something as bit more than a few flurries, already downstream it seems to be producing a bit more than the hi res show, sure would be nice to see one bust in our favor for once.....doesn't seem likely but we may see at least some flurries up here in Pitt Co....

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Just now, downeastnc said:

It really wont take much to turn this into something as bit more than a few flurries, already downstream it seems to be producing a bit more than the hi res show, sure would be nice to see one bust in our favor for once.....doesn't seem likely but we may see at least some flurries up here in Pitt Co....

i was just looking at the radar and the precip field already looks more expansive than the hrrr has initialized at. although it isn't much but it will be nice to see snow falling here in se nc.

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People reporting snow in Tusculoosa and Bham AL well north or the radar returns so that is odd.....not sure how heavy it is but I cant imagine its too heavy if its not being picked up on radar....

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

People reporting snow in Tusculoosa and Bham AL well north or the radar returns so that is odd.....not sure how heavy it is but I cant imagine its too heavy if its not being picked up on radar....

Reports of snow in Atlanta... if this trend keeps up, we could get into the action.

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Last few frames of the radar on my phone really lighting up over Athens pushing in N SC.  20-25 dbz returns

Columbia north special?

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Just to let you guys know, the returns that say it is snowing are just rain. Pure rain. Radar showed it snowing over my house and it was nothing but rain. Supposedly, it will get below freezing tonight. If it makes it to 32, I’d be surprised. Temperature has been holding steady at around 36 for hours. 

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There are people in Tuscaloosa and Birmingham reporting light to mod snow from time to time well north of the precip on radar....RGEM is a little better now has a dusting literally 10 miles to my south lol.....you know if I was forecast to get 1-3" tonight this thing would have no trouble trending south enough to screw me over the next 6-8 hrs, it never ever goes the other way though....I cant remember the last time we had a situation like this were the precip made it further inland than expected and gave us a surprise couple of inches. 

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1 hour ago, Touchet said:

Just to let you guys know, the returns that say it is snowing are just rain. Pure rain. Radar showed it snowing over my house and it was nothing but rain. Supposedly, it will get below freezing tonight. If it makes it to 32, I’d be surprised. Temperature has been holding steady at around 36 for hours. 

Not in Athens, it’s snow on radar and ground truth per Lookout 

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Worst winter in a while.  Just a ton of more wet.  Very few below freezing mornings.  See ya next season.

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