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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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I want to think this is caused by cycles with our weather, certainly history has shown periods like this before?  I hope to see the some of the good winter storms of past to return one day.  They are even more rare for my area (Fayetteville/Linden), but we can get some good snow from the right setup.

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We were supposed to have so much in our favor in terms of indexes as stated by many winter prognosticators.  On top of that we also have minimal sunspot activity.  And precip seems to be at a premium at the moment.  I'm sure it's cold somewhere, it just ain't on the east coast.  As I said in the sanitarium last week, we have 10 weeks to cash in and the clock starts now at 240 hrs out.  We can still have a blowout year but we better start seeing a pattern flip in the LR mighty quick.

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

We were supposed to have so much in our favor in terms of indexes as stated by many winter prognosticators.  On top of that we also have minimal sunspot activity.  And precip seems to be at a premium at the moment.  I'm sure it's cold somewhere, it just ain't on the east coast.  As I said in the sanitarium last week, we have 10 weeks to cash in and the clock starts now at 240 hrs out.  We can still have a blowout year but we better start seeing a pattern flip in the LR mighty quick.

I for the life of me, still fail to grasp and understand why people on this board expected to cash in, in December. We rarely ever do. Look at the odds of a white Christmas S. of VA. They are and have never been good. We have had 2 storms, within the last 10 years and out of 2 of those, Charlotte proper saw basically nothing. The clock for a good chunk of the SE doesn't start in December. We see our biggest storms in Janurary and Feburary. When it's Feb 20th and the LR looks like ****, then we can start the cliff diving. 

 

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Jan 2nd.... looks like we are below freezing all day... and moisture is to our south.... start of something good??? 

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3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

We were supposed to have so much in our favor in terms of indexes as stated by many winter prognosticators.  On top of that we also have minimal sunspot activity.  And precip seems to be at a premium at the moment.  I'm sure it's cold somewhere, it just ain't on the east coast.  As I said in the sanitarium last week, we have 10 weeks to cash in and the clock starts now at 240 hrs out.  We can still have a blowout year but we better start seeing a pattern flip in the LR mighty quick.

See 18z GFS hour 384

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Reading the posts here are depressing. I'm a huge winter enthusiast and it seems like each and every year it gets harder and harder for it to snow. Not just the southeast crew but the mid atlantic as well. I saw @kvegas-wx mention something that stood out to me that we have 10 weeks to cook some things up and its crazy how fast it goes. Need the pattern to flip quickly. We all know how the pac can work and spew the winter killing continental airmass over the country. Takes awhile to overcome this pattern doesn't just flip like a light switch. Here's to hoping and staying positive but it is hard at times. 

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Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Some of you guys need to step away from the keyboard for a while. Sheesh. It’s just a bad pattern.

The scars of 12 inch Euro snow maps turning into a 1/2 inch of slop on the south sides of Greenville - Charlotte - Raleigh run deep in here Stanton.  It is what it is.

Anyway, the GEFS in never never land is moving in the right direction.

8CYgcQW.png

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50 minutes ago, griteater said:

The scars of 12 inch Euro snow maps turning into a 1/2 inch of slop on the south sides of Greenville - Charlotte - Raleigh run deep in here Stanton.  It is what it is.

Anyway, the GEFS in never never land is moving in the right direction.

8CYgcQW.png

It's the curse of I-85! :lol:

But people really do need to relax. And try to learn to take to take any model before 200 hours with a grain of salt. By the way, this is coming from someone who is south of 85. I've been burned so many times that I don't even feel the fire-- aka 33 and rain, anymore... 

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44 minutes ago, griteater said:

The scars of 12 inch Euro snow maps turning into a 1/2 inch of slop on the south sides of Greenville - Charlotte - Raleigh run deep in here Stanton.  It is what it is.

January 2017?

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4 hours ago, ryan1234 said:

I for the life of me, still fail to grasp and understand why people on this board expected to cash in, in December. We rarely ever do. Look at the odds of a white Christmas S. of VA. They are and have never been good. We have had 2 storms, within the last 10 years and out of 2 of those, Charlotte proper saw basically nothing. The clock for a good chunk of the SE doesn't start in December. We see our biggest storms in Janurary and Feburary. When it's Feb 20th and the LR looks like ****, then we can start the cliff diving. 

 

Agree, except for my area Feb is now all spring. If we dont score in January it's over. 

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Liking the looks of CMC and 6z nam.

Looks like a widespread 2-4" rain for much of the SE. Limited severe weather conditions.

Not sure what to think about the GFS and its convection issues.

Anywho if it is some what correct. Then going to be a little bumpy around here near Orlando. 

 

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12 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Liking the looks of CMC and 6z nam.

Looks like a widespread 2-4" rain for much of the SE. Limited severe weather conditions.

Not sure what to think about the GFS and its convection issues.

Anywho if it is some what correct. Then going to be a little bumpy around here near Orlando. 

 

GFS says no rain N of I-20

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41 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS says no rain N of I-20

I really hope not, I need things to dry out. Need some cold though if we want snow, we'll have to watch that potential cold after new year's. 

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48 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro not on board with the pattern change. 

Euro only goes out 240? GFS isn't on board for a pattern change before then either. Even before 240 both models are starting the process by starting to build a ridge off the west coast to shutoff the fire hose of pacific air. 

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Euro only goes out 240? GFS isn't on board for a pattern change before then either. Even before 240 both models are starting the process by starting to build a ridge off the west coast to shutoff the fire hose of pacific air. 

Good luck with that. For the last 15-20 yrs the Pacific been wrecking havoc. 

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30 minutes ago, griteater said:

Haven't seen the end of a model run look this bad since the winter of 11-12

9UHHfj9.gif

Remember last winter when all those late model runs showed the western ridge with the Greenland block that never verified.  

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32 minutes ago, Southern Track said:

Remember last winter when all those late model runs showed the western ridge with the Greenland block that never verified.  

Don't worry. That horrific look will verify with flying colors though. 

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