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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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15 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Hey Mack, any idea where I can get a good deal on pre-emergent?

Was just at Home Depot yesterday! They had a whole pallet in stock! Starting this weekend, you’ll need it! Atleast there is a 10-12 day out storm threat on the GFSv3!

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17 hours ago, griteater said:

Chicago goes from a HIGH temperature of -11 on Wednesday to rain on Saturday night / Sunday.  This winter proving to be an equal opportunity fail boat. 

ftOnN7s.gif

I'm originally from Chicago. Winter never fails. It ended late last year in May - literally was in the 30s consistently until then and came on early with a foot of snow in early November. Now all time record cold. They just had 8 inches of snow Sunday into Monday. Rain and temps in the mid 30s is common. But they have at least 2 solid months of winter to go. 

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This REALLY sucks that we have nothing to correspond about in the mid to long term discussion. Is there ANYTHING promising wintery weather wise? 

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4 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

This REALLY sucks that we have nothing to correspond about in the mid to long term discussion. Is there ANYTHING promising wintery weather wise? 

FV3 has day 12 love for some, but besides that...no

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4 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

This REALLY sucks that we have nothing to correspond about in the mid to long term discussion. Is there ANYTHING promising wintery weather wise? 

The FV3 shows chances of wintery precip at and past day 10. But we've seen that story many times already...

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2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

FV3 has day 12 love for some, but besides that...no

It’s out there but the 12z GEFS has a stout WAR for this timeframe..

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Just now, WarmNose said:

It’s out there but the 12z GEFS has a stout WAR for this timeframe..

Yea, it's definitely not something to be even remotely optimistic about considering how we're supposed to be in a blockbuster pattern right now, but it's still almost better than seeing nothing.

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Finally, the CR index update complete with graphic enhancements. I've missed these as well! At least it can bring a laugh or two for what has been a less than joyful winter for snow lovers. Keep the index fun coming, CR! 

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Looks like a better chance of thunderstorms and even some severe weather in the south next week than snow......

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

You gotta get the thunderstorms to get the snow! 7-10 days later and GFSv3 agrees!

If you believe that you going to be chasing hr384 on the GFS all winter long.

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Alright ill join the pattern change chase. Right now its Feb 7th per gfs and euro op. Not the ensembles I know, but hour 220-230 have a storm going over NC and ots , behind, a big fat high building in. I checked this last night on euro and its held serve, so lets see if it can get under 5 days by this weekend. If,big if the mjo gets a move on out of phase 6 into 7, which its supose to ,then this times out right. 

My hunch is for my area we needed a reshuffle in order to score. And if we do score again its gonna have to time it with a cad HP sliding into place , synched with a gulf low. Just like December. This pv counter clockwise wheel over the lakes want work.

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4 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Alright ill join the pattern change chase. Right now its Feb 7th per gfs and euro op. Not the ensembles I know, but hour 220-230 have a storm going over NC and ots , behind, a big fat high building in. I checked this last night on euro and its held serve, so lets see if it can get under 5 days by this weekend. If,big if the mjo gets a move on out of phase 6 into 7, which its supose to ,then this times out right. 

My hunch is for my area we needed a reshuffle in order to score. And if we do score again its gonna have to time it with a cad HP sliding into place , synched with a gulf low. Just like December. This pv counter clockwise wheel over the lakes want work.

We may not be playing with an empty chamber just yet...

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24 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

We may not be playing with an empty chamber just yet...

60's to 34 2M degree wet snow in 24 hours, yep, seen it once before here in my half centennial plus a few. 

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Full NA trough means more of the same right?   Just need some good timing and a bit more of a cold push to get something going.  Have to get through the brief warmup though. 

TW

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Yea Gefs was only one out of 4 that looked awful to me around this time and biggest reason is the lack of west coast ridge. If we NA trough or I call it the bowling ball trough again, I have reservations about our chances. There are ways to make it work good for us but also alot of ways where we sit through past patterns of cold ,warmup and rain then right back cold. I just wish we could get a nice ridge on west coast and true split flow pattern. Then throw in just the slightest bit of help Atlantic side would be icing on the cake.

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So it appears that this upcoming warmth will be very brief... with more cold coming directly after... so much for DT and His Torchfest.... that's what he gets for talking about JB.

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3 hours ago, tarheelwx said:

Full NA trough means more of the same right?   Just need some good timing and a bit more of a cold push to get something going.  Have to get through the brief warmup though. 

TW

european-vacation-big-ben-parliament-loo

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Now that we are getting pretty strong consensus the warm up coming is brief and Feb 8/9 is our flip back time to winter. Time to start watching for opportunity to see if the window is open. I've seen a FV3 run from two days ago slap a fantasy event up during this time and it was  the same reason the GFS has this at 12z today. Front comes through and hangs up along Gulf Coast. Then we get over runing potential with Our Must Have HP hanging out over NE ( Theres a 1045 HP sliding W-E behind that GL LP). Heres' a vort map to be watching for what kind of energy will be around. Rooting for a surface low here to form. Doesn't have to be some big beast, but the opportunity is there for the taken. On the surface this vort map is just a very thin line of snow way down Miss/AL. We know we are gonna have a front come through next Thursday/ 7-8 days away. Next thing to nail down is watch and see if it keeps stalling along gulf coast. If that's there next several days on models, then look for the energy on vort maps/trends and see if it can throw the qpf over the top into cold air.

500hv.conus.png

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I'm seeing 2 events show up on LR gfs.  One around the 13th and one on the 15th.  Way out there though and may disappear and come back several times.  [300hrs+ and all]  This could morph into a single Valentine's Day storm eventually so I do see that timeframe with some potential if the models keep it up.

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You know... For this to be such a "arctic blast" it is really not that cold at all. 40 here and pretty nice out really even here in Virginia. SE Ridge FTW! 

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