CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 18z gfs has a nice little bugger just offshore on 12/24. Potent s/w. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z gfs has a nice little bugger just offshore on 12/24. Potent s/w. James snags a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Yeah still time for 12/24 to work out if you're gunning for the white Xmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Gfs gets frigid after the cutter. I still think the cutter might track further south or even get shredded due to the negative nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: So with a favorable eps track and op track , we’re discussing day 7 snow maps? I mean people that don’t know wx do that. We are better than that lol, another great example of if a snow map showed fun stuff there'd be no comment. Thats just an OP snapshot, gotta take the good maps with the bad. EPS weren't much better. Potential is there though, I'm sure the snow maps will fly proudly if the potential actually shows up graphically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 That 24th flat waver's been in and out of the guidance for the better part of the week. Random ensemble members of the GEF also inconsistent in themselves... No one's sure, changing minds. I've been watching that - mentioned it as one of those sort of "offset" anomalies, just because in the larger scaled spatial relationships it fits to have something tuck in that time frame, and given to a fast progressive pre-SE ridge bulge, you'd prefer to see it be of the open wave variety like that too. It's hard to say if the model's just using whatever it finds in that numerically unstable set up or if there's really potency to hone in on, but one thing is for sure...in that flow construct... whatever it is keying on must probably be somewhere out near the date line. Frankly, anything from nothing to a Novie 1987 is possible out of that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1074845022162366464?s=20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, kdxken said: https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1074845022162366464?s=20 1930s and 1950s really sucked here...and very recently the 2010s. Matches what I've remembered about our climatology. 1970s weren't even great either in NE. 1980s were surprisingly not bad despite horrific seasonal totals. 2000s we're pretty good as remembered and the 1960s were off the charts good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Nice split now at 50mb modeled on ensembles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Gfs gets frigid after the cutter. I still think the cutter might track further south or even get shredded due to the negative nao. Are you referring to Friday? Is that a 'cutter'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, tnt said: Are you referring to Friday? Is that a 'cutter'? I think he’s referencing the 29th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Big changes today across the board . It’s coming in quickly now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I think he’s referencing the 29th? Correct Even if this is a cutter,the models are starting to show a much better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 30 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I think he’s referencing the 29th? ahh....you guys are all so much farther out than me! These threads are fascinating, but they make my head spin.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big changes today across the board . It’s coming in quickly now A little more patience and then we’re in like Flynn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, tnt said: ahh....you guys are all so much farther out than me! These threads are fascinating, but they make my head spin.... Tiny Tim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 The ring around the moon is insanely huge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 18z GFS if right will give us something to talk about at the GTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 1930s and 1950s really sucked here...and very recently the 2010s. Matches what I've remembered about our climatology. 1970s weren't even great either in NE. 1980s were surprisingly not bad despite horrific seasonal totals. 2000s we're pretty good as remembered and the 1960s were off the charts good. Was sorta surprised at the 1980s...front loaded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Rgem is a big flooder. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: lol, another great example of if a snow map showed fun stuff there'd be no comment. Thats just an OP snapshot, gotta take the good maps with the bad. EPS weren't much better. Potential is there though, I'm sure the snow maps will fly proudly if the potential actually shows up graphically. Euro seasonal snow maps, I know right, have extensive way above normal snow for all of New England for January , AN for Feb for us ,normal for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Don't like the look of the SSW event, looks to displace the PV into Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Nam and Euro are in lock step tandem on big winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Don't like the look of the SSW event, looks to displace the PV into Europe According to Juda C, it splits into 3 different lobes...so don’t worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Don't like the look of the SSW event, looks to displace the PV into Europe Some knowledgeable folks say that wouldn’t be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Deluge 18 Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Of course we jack rain. Been that way since July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Of course we jack rain. Been that way since July. Hey, we came pretty close to jacking back in the November snow storm...so why not again with this thing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Was sorta surprised at the 1980s...front loaded? They had some cold Decembers that kept small snowpack around even though they weren't very prolific...years like 1985, 1980, 1989, etc. In ORH, a lot of those years would have like 2" OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The ring around the moon is insanely huge I pointed this out to my fiancé when we got out of the car about an hour ago. Very cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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