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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

850 down to NC/SC border and 925 at Meck Union border. 

 

 

 

Living on the edge my friend....who ever is on the good side of that line is gonna get crushed. 

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Just now, burgertime said:

Hi-res NAM has all snow for RDU. Battle line for ice is right at CLT and along I-85. 

As it usually is

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If Hi-res NAM is correct verbatim it drops almost 6 inches of snow on CLT before the switch over to sleet. Those would be some seriously heavy rates. 

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I am a meteorologist in West Virginia which covers the southern counties; Beckley to Bluefield and I am ready to scream with this shift back to the north today! 

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12 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

When do we start using much shorter range models like the HRRR, RAP and others? I thought lots of models like the NAM, GFS, Euro are not as accurate when you are literally inside 12 hours or less from go time?

NAM is a short-term mesoscale model that does well inside 24 hours.  However, it has the same weakness as the globals (which are kings of medium range timeframes) in that they only update every 6 hours or 12 hours.  Inside 12 hours, especially within 5 hours,  the short term models gain more weight in consideration since they are run with new data every hour.

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2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

RDU per the Hi-Res NAM would get around a foot of snow before changing over to sleep just based on QPF and p-type maps. 

If that verified I would change over to sleep too.

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8 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Living on the edge my friend....who ever is on the good side of that line is gonna get crushed. 

Every single storm.  When you’re SE of 85 by less than 10 miles and around 1 mile from 485 every little thing has huge implications.  If the HRRR is right at least we can hopefully stick to mostly snow and sleet.  I’ll take that in early December.  

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17 minutes ago, burgertime said:

These HRR totals are crazy. On the lates run AVL has almost 15 inches by hour 15. 

Nice!  That would be incredible. Took us a while, but we have switched over to snow.

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1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

Nice!  That would be incredible. Took us a while, but we have switched over to snow.

Man, I am so jacked for you. Good luck! 

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5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

RDU per the Hi-Res NAM would get around a foot of snow before changing over to sleep just based on QPF and p-type maps. 

Could you please post a map Burger?

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Looking at the soundings for MBY(pretty much just south of 85 on the orange/Durham line), it holds the snow sounding longer than last run on the NAM.

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RAP say this is pretty much all snow for all of NC. Someone is either gonna get an epic sleet storm or a once in a life-time snow storm. 

 

 

5c0c272725293.png

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