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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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Man...I don't recall ever reading such LR confidence in a RAH discussion as I just read (in regards to a potential winter storm). Reading between the lines, the forecaster seemed bullish. On to the 12Z suite. 

In-short: A winter storm is expected to impact portions of central
NC next weekend. While uncertainty on specific local impacts remains
highly dependent on overall track, strength, and arrival time of
said system, confidence continues to grow that some sort of wintry
mix will occur across the northwestern piedmont of NC. Now is the
time to triple check your winter weather supplies and emergency
kits, and continue to check back in on the forecast for further
updates.

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Clown maps look nice, but with this SLP track, there will be a lot of mixing. HP setup looks good. Should be a very moist system, given the amplitude of this STJ wave. Def a Nino esk split flow setup in the Pacific ala 02 03 and 09 10.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

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12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

17" IMBY on the 6z FV3...that's a lot of sleet

 

yeah this run is awfully sleety looking for a lot of folks...including north ga...850s only marginally above freezing with a deep subfreezing layer....925s are very cold down to around -6c. I'll take that over 2  inches of freezing rain for sure. Freezing line gets into central ga but fortunately a lot of the heaviest precip is over by the time it does so freezing rain accumulations look marginal there...though i suspect we will see a band of fairly significant freezing rain still somewhere.  Sc looks to do much better with snow.   Interesting it also has the upper level system hanging around for a while too providing light snows afterwards. Rather impressively the fv3 doesn't have most areas getting much above freezing again until tuesday. 

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the region Wednesday into
Friday morning, with another cold front then moving into
through the area Friday afternoon, and pushing well south of the
cwa into Saturday. Dry conditions will continue into Friday.
The chance for precipitations will return Friday night as
moisture overruns the frontal boundary stalled to our south.

The main concern in the long term is the potential for a winter
mix over the Piedmont and north Midlands Saturday into Sunday.
Confidence is low at this time as to the location and amount of
winter weather given models differences.

Models develop an area of low pressure along the frontal
boundary to our south. The ECMWF has the area low pressure
farther south than the GFS...thus allowing colder air and the
chance for winter weather to possibly affect the northern
Midlands and Piedmont Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the mid 30s and again Saturday night as lows dip into the low
and mid 30s. This cold and wet pattern is expected to continue
into Sunday as the area of low pressure crosses the southeastern
states and moves off the Carolina coast. Confidence remains low
and much can change between now and then, so will continue to
monitor through the week.

Come on NWS drop the hammer and tell the truth...

 

 

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Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it.

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6 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it.

We will have to wait until 11am for the 12z GFS, if it comes in like the FV3 that means suppression is still on. The 0z runs always suck anyway 

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it.

Well, right now I think it's just noise. At this point we just check the ensembles and if they still look nice and suppressed along the coast we're good.  At day 3 that's when I'll probably be looking very closely at each operational run.

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3 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

It seems like this is going to be one of those sharp cutoff storms where it all depends on how much sleet/ZR get mixed in. It'll be a fun week.

The strength of the CAD / supporting high is crucial. Hopefully there is more transition zones. When this occurs our area does well with wintery precip. If there is a sharp snow/rain line somebody in our area (to Charlotte to the SC up state) is going to be unhappy. I still think the December 2009 storm is a possibility. Miller A with good snow totals in the western piedmont but a messy snow to rain event for RDU. 

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