Nov 15/16 regionwide event

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nammy keeps it icey in Litchfield county then gives a parting facial. Good event up there for our hill billy friends. 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is less ridiculous on QPF than the 06z run...shunts the WCB a little east of the 06z run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is less ridiculous on QPF than the 06z run...shunts the WCB a little east of the 06z run.

2-4” w a spot 5 looks to be a good forecast away from immediate ocean. Pretty much region wide, i see little reason to go higher near NH border 

i could even see a case to go lower near NH border where mid levels move in faster than the precip shield moved hours earlier, but not getting that cute

 

 

[SR Airglow]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think they overreacted, and we end up with mostly snow and 6", which is close to warning.  It may the weirdly worded zones that mention sleet and freezing drizzle at various times, like ("snow before 3am, then sleet between 3-4, then snow, then freezing drizzle from 6-7...etc.)

I would agree. They've got rain in the grids as far north as Lincoln, which I find hard to believe given what we're seeing on the guidance. I'm guessing they're weighting the GFS somewhat which is by far the lowest model on QPF. I'd still be confident in 6" ish for you and points north basically, although the concern for some of the valleys up north would be shadowing killing precip rates after the initial thump - some of the models have almost nothing up there tomorrow morning after the initial snows tomorrow night.

[WinterWolf]

It's all gonna come down to when the sleet starts to mix in in the inland areas.  If you hold off the sleet for even an hour longer...the amounts are going to go up quite a bit.  If that sleet line comes in quicker, obviously your amounts are going to be on the low end of the ranges.  It's going to Thump...just how long can we hold off the change over is the key to if you reach the higher end of the ranges. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It's all gonna come down to when the sleet starts to mix in in the inland areas.  If you hold off the sleet for even an hour longer...the amounts are going to go up quite a bit.  If that sleet line comes in quicker, obviously your amounts are going to be on the low end of the ranges.  It's going to Thump...just how long can we hold off the change over is the key to if you reach the higher end of the ranges. 

If people learned anything from seasons past, when all your marbles are on a 3-4 hr period requiring heavy rates, it’s best to go conservative. There is always a chance someone gets 2” /hr for 3 or 4 hrs it’s just not likely

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

going with 2-4" here.. hope you enjoy your new locale and kicking my ass all winter!

I think I have you at 2-5"..

[moneypitmike]

3k looks better for my hood.  It's a really fine line for coastal zones up here.

[TalcottWx]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They’ll actually be no coastal front nearby. That’s way west. It’s a matter of being away from water. You’ll have east winds, but being inland means you can mix out a bit and keep the air cool when it’s so cold aloft. Used to see it all the time. 

Yes, but you will likely be warmed at the onset, just being further away from immediate coast.

[Spanks45]

26.2/10 atm, it looks and feels like January out there. I am roughly 20 miles north of the sound, hopefully I can hold of the sleet long enough to pick up a few inches.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

2-4” w a spot 5 looks to be a good forecast away from immediate ocean. Pretty much region wide, i see little reason to go higher near NH border 

 

 

There's def a chance for 6-8 N of the pike IMHO and outside of 128....I don't think the chance is strong enough right now to warrant a warning, but it's something that should be kept in the back of our heads. I'd be going 4-8" there or mabe 4-7 with lolli 8....I think the chances of less than 4 inches is fairly low up there. GFS is the only model that threatens it and even the GFS is prob in that 3-4" range.

It def not an easy forecast. Sleet could always punch in sooner, but those are the risks in such an event.

[TalcottWx]

This is what has me thinking interior SE MA and perhaps RI do better than CT.

 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

This is what has me thinking interior SE MA and perhaps RI do better than CT.

 

6-12" for powderfreak? 

[CT Rain]

I feel pretty good about 3-6" statewide here - except for SE CT.

Pretty epic omega thump coming in which should get stuff done. Like Will said though, wouldn't take much to get 7 or 8 in some areas.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

This is what has me thinking interior SE MA and perhaps RI do better than CT.

 

 

I could be wrong but I believe that shows N Essex county over to SW NH /S VT being crushed 

[DomNH]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def a chance for 6-8 N of the pike IMHO and outside of 128....I don't think the chance is strong enough right now to warrant a warning, but it's something that should be kept in the back of our heads. I'd be going 4-8" there....I think the chances of less than 4 inches is fairly low up there. GFS is the only model that threatens it and even the GFS is prob in that 3-4" range.

It def not an easy forecast. Sleet could always punch in sooner, but those are the risks in such an event.

I think this is fair. I haven't seen a model sounding that sleets srn NH until some time after 06z. If we can hold on to snow for the majority of the initial thump I can see widespread 4-6'' amounts Rt. 2 north. My biggest fear would be an earlier mix obviously along with mediocre snowgrowth producing like 2-3'' of sand and then pings. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def a chance for 6-8 N of the pike IMHO and outside of 128....I don't think the chance is strong enough right now to warrant a warning, but it's something that should be kept in the back of our heads. I'd be going 4-8" there or mabe 4-7 with lolli 8....I think the chances of less than 4 inches is fairly low up there. GFS is the only model that threatens it and even the GFS is prob in that 3-4" range.

It def not an easy forecast. Sleet could always punch in sooner, but those are the risks in such an event.

Completely agree...that is the message that I was trying to convey by opting for the 4-8" range for that zone. I feel 4-6" is more likely, but 6-8" is a decent shot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I feel pretty good about 3-6" statewide here - except for SE CT.

Pretty epic omega thump coming in which should get stuff done. Like Will said though, wouldn't take much to get 7 or 8 in some areas.

I hedged towards more sleet and some frz rain for your area with 2-4"....bit of a gamble, but we'll see.

[CT Rain]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hedged towards more sleet and some frz rain for your area with 2-4"....bit of a gamble, but we'll see.

Not sure there would be more here than areas north and east.

Seems like the omega thump is really maximized to the southwest. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Im ready for the Arctic sandstorm here in Death Valley.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Not sure there would be more here than areas north and east.

Seems like the omega thump is really maximized to the southwest. 

I think areas to your ne will do better because of sleet.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I feel pretty good about 3-6" statewide here - except for SE CT.

Pretty epic omega thump coming in which should get stuff done. Like Will said though, wouldn't take much to get 7 or 8 in some areas.

CT should end up getting more than north of Pike with the better lift as it weakens farther north 

[WxBlue]

Feeling comfortable with 3-7" for Dover. Nothing too wild. 

[CoastalWx]

What you need to watch is that big burst and how the WCB does sort of shunt east a bit as it tries to move north. That is hinted at. But if that does not happen, it increases the odds of 4-8 to the north. There also may be a weak CF enhancement near 495.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Im ready for the Arctic sandstorm here in Death Valley.

Arctic sand won't be a issue with this one at all

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What you need to watch is that big burst and how the WCB does sort of shunt east a bit as it tries to move north. That is hinted at. But if that does not happen, it increases the odds of 4-8 to the north. There also may be a weak CF enhancement near 495.

I have always though far ne MA and se NH was awesome due to how steep the thermal gradient associated with the cf gets....happy to be nearer to that.

[ineedsnow]

FWIW I know not much but deep thunder gives  most of ct a foot of snow 

[Typhoon Tip]

I suspect there's a tendency to want to go conservative ...for no other reason, it's only mid November.  I get that. But, also I think seeing NWS' overnight efforts to trim down toward Advisory (imho) scope on this, is both satisfying that underpinning insecurity in this thing, but is also ...risky. 

I'm gonna be interested in seeing how the chips fall on this one. ...  They have cleared west of ALB of any warning; however, enough uncertainty and arguments toward a bigger impact exist toward the Berk's and beyond (notwithstanding, the first and likely non-acclimated event ..)  I wonder if there some over-think going on there. 

We'll see.  Ultimately, an Advisory with pop is probably not a big deal different than a lazy warning so it's meaningless... but I found it interesting to see the products painted that way this morning.  mm

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

FWIW I know not much but deep thunder gives  most of ct a foot of snow 

Just like Indiana Jones at the end of Raiders of the Lost Arc...."Maryann.....don't look at it...."

[ORH_wxman]

12z RGEM looks pretty damned good. Cooled a bit...still has N of pike snow at 06z and it is not shy about the thump.