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PrinceFrederickWx

Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

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Turnout looks to be very high this year- already have 32 people playing! Keep 'em coming!

 

@JakkelWx I assume this is still your current forecast and not the troll shutout one you posted later, right? Put any updates you ever have in this one too.

On 11/1/2018 at 5:36 PM, JakkelWx said:

BWI : 32''

DCA: 9''

IAD : 31''

RIC : 16''

Tie Breaker - SBY: 13''

 

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Turnout looks to be very high this year- already have 32 people playing! Keep 'em coming!

 

@JakkelWx I assume this is still your current forecast and not the troll shutout one you posted later, right? Put any updates you ever have in this one too.

 

Correct, that is not my troll forecast.

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9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How often does BWI have higher totals than Dulles?

It happens a lot. Here's all the winters:

1963/64
1964/65
1965/66
1975/76
1976/77
1978/79
1980/81
1987/88
1995/96
1999/00
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2015/16
2017/18

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50 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It happens a lot. Here's all the winters:

1963/64
1964/65
1965/66
1975/76
1976/77
1978/79
1980/81
1987/88
1995/96
1999/00
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2015/16
2017/18

That is sorta surprising....

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What a shift from a somewhat warm December forecast 1-2 weeks ago to all out -NAO and -AO blocking. I am pretty confident that the latter may verify, and the GEFS raises my eyebrows in a good way (also the model 500 ensembles). Therefore, i'm adding 10 inches to all of the locations in my forecast (for the whole winter), although even that may be conservative. Changed DCA to make it more realistic and added around 9'' to RICs.

BWI : 42''

DCA: 32''

IAD : 41''

RIC : 26''

Tie Breaker - SBY: 23''

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Higher guesses rolling in now.  Thursday's storms are getting peoples hopes up.

This happened last year too around this time- all the forecasts were going higher and higher (95-96 REDUX!!!111”) ...then it started looking like crap and a few people cliff jumped and edited the forecasts back on Nov 30.

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Okay, here is my "real" guess.  Thinking we will see several events like today....mixy with more north and west.  Also low balling SBY because they got their fill of snow last year.  Would love to go super big with all of the good signs this year so far, but am fearful of the fact that even when the stars align, it can be hard to get snow around here.  Hope reality is much higher than my predictions.

 

BWI:  28.8"

DCA:  17.7"

IAD:  33.3"

RIC:  15.5"

 

 

SBY: 9.9"

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On 11/5/2018 at 8:24 PM, George BM said:

BWI: Trace

DCA: Trace

IAD: Trace

RIC: 42.7"

 

TB (SBY): 50.2"

UPDATE:

BWI: 1.7"

DCA: 1.4"

IAD: 3.0"

RIC: 42.7"
 

TB (SBY): 50.2"

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