Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

[SnowGoose69]

That flag at frying pan is almost destroyed now 

[hazwoper]

11 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said:

Florence deciding to take a jump due north at the moment.

its a wobble if anything.  the center is definitely not moving due north

[nchighcountrywx]

42 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

that's why i love that new GOES 17 viewer.  throw on the cirrus band and you can see through the emperor's new clothes in a way that traditional visible channels obscure.

 

 

 

Is there a public link to the Goes 17 Image Viewer that you are showing us?  Thank you.

[Tibet]

1 minute ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Is there a public link to the Goes 17 Image Viewer that you are showing us?  Thank you.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1234&y=984&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=210&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=17&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[salbers]

Looks like improved enhancement around the eye here:

 

Movement does seem to the north on the satellite loop.

[Midnight Moon]

2 minutes ago, salbers said:

Looks like improved enhancement around the eye here:

 

Movement does seem to the north on the satellite loop.

Look at that dry air coming in from the NW.  Can't be good for this cane.

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Midnight Moon said:

Look at that dry air coming in from the NW.  Can't be good for this cane.

it's almost like there is a continent that is there

[MattPetrulli]

All units in MPH

KNKT Metar 52/70

KNCS Metar 39/48

KHSE Metar 36/52

[Ralph Wiggum]

Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info.

[Midnight Moon]

2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

it's almost like there is a continent that is there

That's a good one.  LOL

[SnowGoose69]

95% of Carteret County is already out of power. That is crazy high given winds only topping 55-65 so far 

[MattPetrulli]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info.

Yeah I'm not sure why they did that, think we're looking at a 10-13 ft+ surge threat

[thunderwolf]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info.

You mentioned the bad things, so I will point out a couple of good things regarding potential surge. 1) Storm is weakening and pushing less water 2) Looks like landfall will be around low or at least mid-tide tomorrow.

[WeatherNovice]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info.

Can you point me to your source for this?  I missed it.....thanks

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

Track forecast was pretty good though. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, WeatherNovice said:

Can you point me to your source for this?  I missed it.....thanks

https://twitter.com/angelafritz/status/1040346782801256449

https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/1040346725091819520

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

 To be fair, everyone is at the mercy of model output to some extent. 

Edit: also, where are you coming up with barely a category one?

[MattPetrulli]

6 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

I'd love to hear your forecast a couple days ago

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

They did the best they could, it just goes to show how difficult it is to get a major above 30N. 

Hugo, Fran and Hazel were rare animals indeed.

[Wmsptwx]

It's a 955 mb monster with vast size and clouds shooting up around center...yup, barely cat one.

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

You mentioned the bad things, so I will point out a couple of good things regarding potential surge. 1) Storm is weakening and pushing less water 2) Looks like landfall will be around low or at least mid-tide tomorrow.

Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory? 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Strengthening, weakening....open for debate. At the very least, this cyclone is holding it's own.  Nice convection flareup NW quad....pulsing type of TC:

[thunderwolf]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory? 

You are absolutely right, but wind speed is also a factor. None of the other factors have changed and so now with a decreased wind speed we are expecting less surge. And by less surge, I think the forecast only went down by about a foot, so we are really splitting hairs here. 

[thunderwolf]

53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

95% of Carteret County is already out of power. That is crazy high given winds only topping 55-65 so far 

Just wanted to let you know that those numbers might be inflated slightly. I think the power outage source either a) doesn't have the total number of customers correct or b) is wrongly assuming all Carteret-Craven Electric Coop is out of power which it is not. My parents live there and have CCEC and still have power.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Strengthening, weakening....open for debate. At the very least, this cyclone is holding it's own.  Nice convection flareup NW quad....pulsing type of TC:

It is massive and it's going to wreak havoc on the coast. 

[f2tornado]

25 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

This is garbage. It's a Cat 2 with a very large wind field. The track has been almost dead on for the past week. The NHC was very conservative adjusting the track which worked in their favor for this storm. Perhaps they were a little too confident early on with their intensity discussion given all the inherent uncertainty (ERCs, shear, etc.) but they have consistently stated there would be some weakening as the the center approached the coast. Ultimately, a very large and dangerous storm is right where they forecast it to be. 

[rolltide_130]

32 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

It is reitensifying and already absolutely battering the OBX with more to come. Also, saying it is barely a cat 1 is quite literally factually incorrect.

The only big time swing and a miss is your post if we're being honest here. I would take that down if I were you. Very very low quality discussion. 

[Stebo]

Don't fall for the trap of the one post posters, they are just socks or trolls trying to get a rise out of the thread. Nothing of value is going to come from them.

[SnoSki14]

The NHC stated that some areas are already seeing 4' of surge and high tide isn't until 11PM for those areas. 

A long ways to go with this.