SnowGoose69 Posted September 13, 2018 That flag at frying pan is almost destroyed now 1 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hazwoper Posted September 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said: Florence deciding to take a jump due north at the moment. its a wobble if anything. the center is definitely not moving due north Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nchighcountrywx Posted September 13, 2018 42 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: that's why i love that new GOES 17 viewer. throw on the cirrus band and you can see through the emperor's new clothes in a way that traditional visible channels obscure. Is there a public link to the Goes 17 Image Viewer that you are showing us? Thank you. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tibet Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, nchighcountrywx said: Is there a public link to the Goes 17 Image Viewer that you are showing us? Thank you. http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1234&y=984&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=210&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=17&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
salbers Posted September 13, 2018 Looks like improved enhancement around the eye here: Movement does seem to the north on the satellite loop. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Midnight Moon Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, salbers said: Looks like improved enhancement around the eye here: Movement does seem to the north on the satellite loop. Look at that dry air coming in from the NW. Can't be good for this cane. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, Midnight Moon said: Look at that dry air coming in from the NW. Can't be good for this cane. it's almost like there is a continent that is there 5 9 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MattPetrulli Posted September 13, 2018 All units in MPH KNKT Metar 52/70 KNCS Metar 39/48 KHSE Metar 36/52 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 13, 2018 Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Midnight Moon Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: it's almost like there is a continent that is there That's a good one. LOL 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGoose69 Posted September 13, 2018 95% of Carteret County is already out of power. That is crazy high given winds only topping 55-65 so far Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MattPetrulli Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info. Yeah I'm not sure why they did that, think we're looking at a 10-13 ft+ surge threat 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thunderwolf Posted September 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info. You mentioned the bad things, so I will point out a couple of good things regarding potential surge. 1) Storm is weakening and pushing less water 2) Looks like landfall will be around low or at least mid-tide tomorrow. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WeatherNovice Posted September 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info. Can you point me to your source for this? I missed it.....thanks Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. Track forecast was pretty good though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, WeatherNovice said: Can you point me to your source for this? I missed it.....thanks https://twitter.com/angelafritz/status/1040346782801256449 https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/1040346725091819520 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. To be fair, everyone is at the mercy of model output to some extent. Edit: also, where are you coming up with barely a category one? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MattPetrulli Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. I'd love to hear your forecast a couple days ago 4 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnoSki14 Posted September 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. They did the best they could, it just goes to show how difficult it is to get a major above 30N. Hugo, Fran and Hazel were rare animals indeed. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wmsptwx Posted September 13, 2018 It's a 955 mb monster with vast size and clouds shooting up around center...yup, barely cat one. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 13, 2018 22 minutes ago, thunderwolf said: You mentioned the bad things, so I will point out a couple of good things regarding potential surge. 1) Storm is weakening and pushing less water 2) Looks like landfall will be around low or at least mid-tide tomorrow. Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 13, 2018 Strengthening, weakening....open for debate. At the very least, this cyclone is holding it's own. Nice convection flareup NW quad....pulsing type of TC: Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thunderwolf Posted September 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory? You are absolutely right, but wind speed is also a factor. None of the other factors have changed and so now with a decreased wind speed we are expecting less surge. And by less surge, I think the forecast only went down by about a foot, so we are really splitting hairs here. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thunderwolf Posted September 13, 2018 53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 95% of Carteret County is already out of power. That is crazy high given winds only topping 55-65 so far Just wanted to let you know that those numbers might be inflated slightly. I think the power outage source either a) doesn't have the total number of customers correct or b) is wrongly assuming all Carteret-Craven Electric Coop is out of power which it is not. My parents live there and have CCEC and still have power. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Strengthening, weakening....open for debate. At the very least, this cyclone is holding it's own. Nice convection flareup NW quad....pulsing type of TC: It is massive and it's going to wreak havoc on the coast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
f2tornado Posted September 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. This is garbage. It's a Cat 2 with a very large wind field. The track has been almost dead on for the past week. The NHC was very conservative adjusting the track which worked in their favor for this storm. Perhaps they were a little too confident early on with their intensity discussion given all the inherent uncertainty (ERCs, shear, etc.) but they have consistently stated there would be some weakening as the the center approached the coast. Ultimately, a very large and dangerous storm is right where they forecast it to be. 4 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rolltide_130 Posted September 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. It is reitensifying and already absolutely battering the OBX with more to come. Also, saying it is barely a cat 1 is quite literally factually incorrect. The only big time swing and a miss is your post if we're being honest here. I would take that down if I were you. Very very low quality discussion. 12 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stebo Posted September 13, 2018 Don't fall for the trap of the one post posters, they are just socks or trolls trying to get a rise out of the thread. Nothing of value is going to come from them. 9 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnoSki14 Posted September 13, 2018 The NHC stated that some areas are already seeing 4' of surge and high tide isn't until 11PM for those areas. A long ways to go with this. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites