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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info.

Can you point me to your source for this?  I missed it.....thanks

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7 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

 To be fair, everyone is at the mercy of model output to some extent. 

Edit: also, where are you coming up with barely a category one?

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6 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

I'd love to hear your forecast a couple days ago

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9 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

They did the best they could, it just goes to show how difficult it is to get a major above 30N. 

Hugo, Fran and Hazel were rare animals indeed.

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22 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

You mentioned the bad things, so I will point out a couple of good things regarding potential surge. 1) Storm is weakening and pushing less water 2) Looks like landfall will be around low or at least mid-tide tomorrow.

Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory? 

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory? 

You are absolutely right, but wind speed is also a factor. None of the other factors have changed and so now with a decreased wind speed we are expecting less surge. And by less surge, I think the forecast only went down by about a foot, so we are really splitting hairs here. 

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53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

95% of Carteret County is already out of power. That is crazy high given winds only topping 55-65 so far 

Just wanted to let you know that those numbers might be inflated slightly. I think the power outage source either a) doesn't have the total number of customers correct or b) is wrongly assuming all Carteret-Craven Electric Coop is out of power which it is not. My parents live there and have CCEC and still have power.

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Strengthening, weakening....open for debate. At the very least, this cyclone is holding it's own.  Nice convection flareup NW quad....pulsing type of TC:

goes16_ir_06L_201809132203.thumb.jpg.0bdb0eace660396cd01796715fb4ab3c.jpg

It is massive and it's going to wreak havoc on the coast. 

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25 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

This is garbage. It's a Cat 2 with a very large wind field. The track has been almost dead on for the past week. The NHC was very conservative adjusting the track which worked in their favor for this storm. Perhaps they were a little too confident early on with their intensity discussion given all the inherent uncertainty (ERCs, shear, etc.) but they have consistently stated there would be some weakening as the the center approached the coast. Ultimately, a very large and dangerous storm is right where they forecast it to be. 

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32 minutes ago, Kendall said:

NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time.

It is reitensifying and already absolutely battering the OBX with more to come. Also, saying it is barely a cat 1 is quite literally factually incorrect.

The only big time swing and a miss is your post if we're being honest here. I would take that down if I were you. Very very low quality discussion. 

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Don't fall for the trap of the one post posters, they are just socks or trolls trying to get a rise out of the thread. Nothing of value is going to come from them.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The NHC stated that some areas are already seeing 4' of surge and high tide isn't until 11PM for those areas. 

A long ways to go with this.

Things are progressing. Forecasts here in Raleigh have changed with the expansion of Flo.  Not happy about possibly seeing 53mph gusting here. Our news caster came on and told us things are changing potentially and we have a better chance now of worse than they thought. That’s it wouldn’t be as bad as Fran in the Triangle, but die to the prolonged period and rains it’ll be significant in areas. Especially just to the south parts. 

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I don't know why people insisted otherwise, but anyone looking at the IR loop of this thing could tell it was strengthening.  Now it looks like strong convection is wrapped around the center, and it even appears as if an eye is forming.  Now, I have no idea what will come of this, but the storm certainly looks better organized than at almost any time today.

On a more important note, I hope everyone in the Carolinas is ok and that this storm passes without causing too much damage.  Everyone talks about how "beautiful" these storms look, but the destruction in their paths is devastating to families and wildlife.  Just keep that in mind, because the people in Florence's path don't think anything about this storm is beautiful.

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1 minute ago, NYCGreg said:

I don't know why people insisted otherwise, but anyone looking at the IR loop of this thing could tell it was strengthening.  

people insisted otherwise because the hurricane hunters weren't finding much of an increase in strength.  the pressure has fallen a bit and winds have gone up a few knots, but let's not act like this is undergoing rapid intensification.

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7 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

people insisted otherwise because the hurricane hunters weren't finding much of an increase in strength.  the pressure has fallen a bit and winds have gone up a few knots, but let's not act like this is undergoing rapid intensification.

No one is suggesting it is undergoing RI.  But considering it is creeping back towards Category 3 status (it is 6 MPH from that category) is crazy, especially given that it is approaching land and was in terrible shape not too long ago.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm still not seeing any recon SFMR data higher than 75 kts anywhere in the very flat wind field.  105 mph is pretty generous.

cape lookout is currently 71kts so i think it's fair to say that it's higher than the 75 that sfmr is showing.  but that said, 90kts might be a little high.

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