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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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1 minute ago, wawayanda said:

Sobering and very clarifying demonstration of what storm surge from 3ft up to 9ft actually looks like on the ground. Share with folks out there who aren't taking this seriously.

 

The surge is going to go deep into these sounds and bays, up the rivers. It is going to be a major problem.

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Onlsow Bay Outer (Station 41159) buoy wave height (WVHT) in feet and Average Wave Period (AVP) in seconds, showing Florence approach to the NC coast.  

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41159 

09 13 0000 - WVHT 7.5 ft - AVP 6.7 sec

09 13 0600 - WVHT 8.9 ft - AVP 7.0 sec

09 13 1200 - WVHT 18 ft - AVP 9.9 sec

09 13 1400- WVHT 23.9 ft - AVP 10.2 sec

09 13 1600 - WVHT 22.6 ft - AVP 9.6 sec

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4 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

Onlsow Bay Outer (Station 41159) buoy wave height (WVHT) in feet and Average Wave Period (AVP) in seconds, showing Florence approach to the NC coast.  

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41159 

0000 - WVHT 7.5 ft - AVP 6.7 sec

0600 - WVHT 8.9 ft - AVP 7.0 sec

1200 - WVHT 18 ft - AVP 9.9 sec

1400- WVHT 23.9 ft - AVP 10.2 sec

1600 - WVHT 22.6 ft - AVP 9.6 sec

Water temp down 2 degrees in 24 hours.

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I don't think that big gulp of dry air swirling around in the core will allow the inner core reorganization to proceed very far, but recon did just find 84 kts at the surface in the north quad, which is a bit higher than they've found in a while.

I’d agree, in my very uneducated point of view. We have been watching for over a day now waiting for the core to reform, but it just has kept on ingesting dry air and looked very ragged.

 

At this point though, it doesn’t matter. The damage is already pretty set as far as what surge will do and fresh water flooding will be a nightmare. 

 

I do wish that people would stop analyzing every radar frame and say it is forming an eye or whatever else lol. 

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24 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

It looks like Florence will recover at the last possible second with an apparent huge eye clearing out in 3-6 hours. Pressure at landfall will be important.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis

FYI, that was dry air from earlier. Seems to be slowly mixing out.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Looks to be doing just that (paralleling) out to 48 hr.

Yea. This should be very concerning bc this track really maximizes impact by slowing the rate of weakening while continuing to have enough of circulation offshore to hit 100’s of miles of coastline with significant (cat 3+) storm surge.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. This should be very concerning bc this track really maximizes impact by slowing the rate of weakening while continuing to have enough of circulation offshore to hit 100’s of miles of coastline with significant (cat 3+) storm surge.

It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads.

Yes. Always is. Worth noting that GFS and Hwrf trended towards the Euro op idea of paralleling the coast. That track —in general—is gaining credibility that’s all that can be said right now. Hopefully EPS narrows the posts through hr 48.

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