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sbos_wx

Hurricane Florence

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56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gloria catapulted my weenie-ness. I remember the stratus just flying by at 90kts and trees bending. We lost power for several days. Way better than Bob in my hood.

Gloria was a great event for a budding weenie, I spent a solid week at the firehouse keeping generators running and going on calls (good stuff for an 18 year old FF/EMT). Bob fizzled for NECT. The next best memory was the blizzard of ‘78, out of school for a week and spent the entire time outside.

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2 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Well she's clearly falling apart...i wish they would.go over why...technically it is traversing over warm water...but the sw quadrant has always struggled...is it sheer, dry air, both? I wish they would talk about structure and environment...there must be some time to talk about that stuff...instead of just using the same graphics and rotating through a list of catastrophic adjectives.

 

Agree.

Have been watching this peripherally, haven't posted at all. It was obvious the mechanics were never the same after that first ERC, and the ragged / dry southwest quadrant has been a visible issue ever since. Echoing Ray and others the past 48 hours, you can sense when these systems are "infected" with disrupted mechanics that they just can't shake out, regardless of favorable extrinsic features. Maybe modeling is good at reading large extrinsic synoptic features (shear, steering, water temps, etc) but is not as good at recognizing these broken intrinsic features? Intensity forecasts from just 24-48 hours ago will have been way off. Obviously still anticipating significant storm surge and flooding impacts.

But yeah would be nice if there was a little more thoughtful analysis of what's going on, and not the stupefied repetitive track maps, Cat # graphics, and histrionics. TWC wants this cash cow bad.

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1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

Why is everyone so old

"Little boy sit on the corner and cry, old man come and ask him why, he says I can't do what the big boys do, old man sat down and he cried to."

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13 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

Agree.

Have been watching this peripherally, haven't posted at all. It was obvious the mechanics were never the same after that first ERC, and the ragged / dry southwest quadrant has been a visible issue ever since. Echoing Ray and others the past 48 hours, you can sense when these systems are "infected" with disrupted mechanics that they just can't shake out, regardless of favorable extrinsic features. Maybe modeling is good at reading large extrinsic synoptic features (shear, steering, water temps, etc) but is not as good at recognizing these broken intrinsic features? Intensity forecasts from just 24-48 hours ago will have been way off. Obviously still anticipating significant storm surge and flooding impacts.

But yeah would be nice if there was a little more thoughtful analysis of what's going on, and not the stupefied repetitive track maps, Cat # graphics, and histrionics. TWC wants this cash cow bad.

I like to use spaghettimodels.com 

He has everything you want to look at on one page. I just went to the shear products and there is something that is so straight forward, it has Florence in an area not conducive for tropical systems...the hype on every weather event is so outrageously unwarranted, it makes me want to stay away from all social media and tv

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45 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I like to use spaghettimodels.com 

He has everything you want to look at on one page. I just went to the shear products and there is something that is so straight forward, it has Florence in an area not conducive for tropical systems...the hype on every weather event is so outrageously unwarranted, it makes me want to stay away from all social media and tv

Yeah, Mike's site is great. A bit of shear right now for sure, looks like it could be a bit more favorable where it wants to stall though. 

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like she’ll be a 3 at LF into ILM as structure is improving this morning . Devastating next couple of days upcoming for millions in the Carolinas

 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

She looks lousy. Struggle for a 2, but large circulation.

Lol

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

She looks lousy. Struggle for a 2, but large circulation.

 Looking a little better than it did a few hours ago though.   I was reading somewhere else so that the ULL over Florida created shear that hindered Florence yesterday.  Was that something that models were not picking up on? 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Looking a little better than it did a few hours ago though.   I was reading somewhere else so that the ULL over Florida created shear that hindered Florence yesterday.  Was that something that models were not picking up on? 

Shear and dry air has been a bit under-modeled. Although SHIPS RH did show it, but as is usually the case, models were to intensity happy when that happens.

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14 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Yeah, 110MPH winds are pretty lousy.  :rolleyes:

 That’s probably generous. The satellite presentation is what it is. It also has a pretty bad core.

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I think all the focus on the strength at LF misses the point. With a stalled forward speed the amount of rainfall on the Piedmont of NC - where there are actual hills that funnel water - is going to be catastrophic.  I was just in Japan where a weak tripical system offshore earlier this summer killed 200+ people from rainfall and flash flooding.  If this thing makes 10+ of rain in central NC lots and lots of terrible things will happen.  Way overshadowing the impacts on the coast. That's not changing regardless of the max intensity at LF.  

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Something has been kicking Flo in the rump ever since the first EWRC. Seems like it stumbled and couldn’t gets its footing back. Should still cause some extensive damage with surge/flooding potential.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 That’s probably generous. The satellite presentation is what it is. It also has a pretty bad core.

Even if it's a minimum category 1 storm, I wouldn't call it lousy.  Heck, look at what Sandy did as a Tropical Storm.  I wouldn't call that lousy.  I've been in minimal hurricane winds and it's nothing to sneeze at, particularly if it's going to be for 24 hours and accompanied by flooding rain and everything else.

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21 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Even if it's a minimum category 1 storm, I wouldn't call it lousy.  Heck, look at what Sandy did as a Tropical Storm.  I wouldn't call that lousy.  I've been in minimal hurricane winds and it's nothing to sneeze at, particularly if it's going to be for 24 hours and accompanied by flooding rain and everything else.

Yeah, anyone downplaying it just doesn't have a grasp on the severity of this storm.

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83 foot seas measured, recon finding 60 knot east winds way beyond the center, 50 foot seas forecasted, epic surge disaster incoming, think Bolivar Peninsula. Listen to the wind in this live video from Frying Pan shoals

 

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1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Yeah, anyone downplaying it just doesn't have a grasp on the severity of this storm.

Euro has had a complete grasp on wind speeds, it tightens this up as it nears the coast.

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35 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Even if it's a minimum category 1 storm, I wouldn't call it lousy.  Heck, look at what Sandy did as a Tropical Storm.  I wouldn't call that lousy.  I've been in minimal hurricane winds and it's nothing to sneeze at, particularly if it's going to be for 24 hours and accompanied by flooding rain and everything else.

I said the satellite presentation was lousy. Let’s not overhype something.

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The issue will be surge and rain. That’s probably what should be the focus. But the surge albeit not good, is a better case scenario than the 130kts prior to landfall that was forecasted a few days ago. Bigger issue is surge spread out many miles on top of freshwater issues.

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

83 foot seas measured, recon finding 60 knot east winds way beyond the center, 50 foot seas forecasted, epic surge disaster incoming, think Bolivar Peninsula. Listen to the wind in this live video from Frying Pan shoals

 

That must be one strong flagpole, lol. Those waves are amazing!

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The issue will be surge and rain. That’s probably what should be the focus. But the surge albeit not good, is a better case scenario than the 130kts prior to landfall that was forecasted a few days ago. Bigger issue is surge spread out many miles on top of freshwater issues.

Tremendously wet

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