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Hurricane Florence

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I've been MIA for summer, Florence has awakened me. 

I imagine this one is already a week into discussion. But lord almighty, that's a eyebrow raising run of recent models. 

Does the machine finally break through our long climatological hurricane drought? 

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28 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z GFS is lulz... 3 days of Florence chilling off SNE

Reading a lot of posts to pump the brakes in various places. It's just really concerning to see steering track like that. And heights have trended stronger. It's concerning from Carolina to Maine. Worrysome for Bermuda. 

 

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Suspect ridging may ultimately work against us up here, but mid Atlantic region could definitely have reason for concern. Of course nothing is set at this distant juncture, so we stock up on IPA and watch.

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I am supposed to be going to Block Island for a wedding from Thursday to Sunday next week.  That could be interesting.

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

that sounds like more fun!!

I hope the wedding is fun and the weather dull.

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55 minutes ago, klw said:

I am supposed to be going to Block Island for a wedding from Thursday to Sunday next week.  That could be interesting.

Maybe it'll look something like this? 

 

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To me, this is either a stall and recurve off mid atlantic with some noreaster like effects, or a swing anywhere from NJ to ME. Don't see the direct shot west as plausible. 

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GFS looks like it does a slow roll up the coast from ACY to the Cape with no actual landfall.  Then an extremely anomalous change in course towards the south where it eventually starts intensifying again, way out in fantasy range for this whole scenario though. 

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a Fuji on the GFS. ULL in the south interacts. Slingshots it up Coast from ACY

With the ridge as currently forecasted, that seems like most plausible track. No reason to cause panic or sound alarms yet. It's going to track close off the coast of the US, it could still take a track that recurves it after a stall near the coast.

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Yeah, but the GFS is pretty useless in the tropics. Pretty sure it still had Irma hitting NC when all the other models were honing in on southern Florida. Probably can add 30mb to whatever pressure it spits out too.

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Florence is exhibiting the same separate blob of convection off its eastern flank that Matthew had in the Caribbean. Is that some artifact of the high shear? I recall Matthew was in a sheared environment as well (and still made cat 5).

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